Interesting! I have also the feeling that Trump will win, but it's more my gut feeling. People don't like to be told from authorities or mass media whom they shall vote for. So the more Trump is demonized, the more votes he will get. Your analysis is way more profound, of course 😉 and I do not endorse Trump, too.
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The gut is a powerful tool my friend, ignore it at your peril! What we call our gut is really our unconscious mind attempting to communicate with our conscious mind, it's not always right, but it does have access to information our conscious mind does not.
If you're interested in learning more about what @andrarchy is talking about with gut feelings and the amount of information the subconscious mind has access to and can process, read Malcom Gladwell's "Blink." Absolutely fascinating read that will blow your mind if you haven't been exposed to the information before. Reading it certainly changed the weight I put on my own gut feelings, which is to say that I trust them more and I pay much more attention to them now. This has benefited me immensely.