Sort:  

As someone who participated in last war being 13-17 yrs old, i can tell you that the next big conflict on world stage will drive remaining serbs on the other bank of Drina river - to Serbia.

Republika Srpska dont have any army, power or friends. They have only corrupt politicians, war deserters and profiteers like Dodik and his clique.

They and their kids dont have clue how the war looks like, and thats why they are fueling hate and calling for independence. When it starts, they will flee again with their kids and grandchildren.

Also, Republika Srpska is something that Serbs never really wanted, or been fighting and dying for, as its presented today. We didnt had clue about Republika Srpska. Noone would go to war for any Republika Srpska. We were fighting for survival of Yugoslavia, or more precisely, to remain in one state with Serbia. Republika Srpska is just consequence of peace talks, USA meddling and propaganda and NATO airstrikes.

It wont be easy to cause the war here without foreign money and intervention. Everyone here, Serbs, Bosniaks, Croats - are justfed up enough with their warmongering. Noone who got hit by the last war will go to another. If mr Dodik wants his private country, he can give the rifle to his own son and send him to frontline.

As a Serb from Serbia I have to tell the following.

  • the Dayton Agreement was a fair decision that paid respect to everything that happened in the Balkans.
  • There is a conspiracy theory saying that Serbia agreed to a defacto capitulation o the Serb state in Croatia in exchange for the Dayton
    Agreement. It might be a CT but it is strongly inline with reality.
  • most people in the Serb Republic in BiH support the Dayton Agreement. They do dream about seccession, but it is not their priority.
  • It is the current president of Srpska, Milorad Dodik who is the core problem. His strong pro-Russian stance is a greater threat for the future of RS than is the unitarist movement in Sarajevo.
  • Relations between Bosnian Croats and Bosnian Serbs are not that bad as you described. Bosniaks have much worse relations with Bosniaks than they do with the Serbs.
  • If the Bosniak unitarist tendentions continue, a seccession of RS is unevitable. What RS needs to do is just to get rid of their pro-Russian corrupt president and government and build better relations with the West.

he came to power riding on NATO tanks, storming police stations and media houses using NATO forces. There is nothing pro russian in what he does. Hes Madleen Albrights fresh wind on Balkan.

And man who literally rules his both private and public life is israeli Arie Livne, who is the real landlord of Republica Srpska. If you notice, Dodik has hard time even composing a simple sentence. Hes just a man who is ready to do anything what is asked from him.

there is nothing pro russian in his acts.

its only a propaganda for internal use, for uneducated people who are still watching state TVs. And such people are not minority here. Together with mass he gathered around state paid jobs financed with western loans, he has enough to remain in power and avoid prison for some more time. Moment the west stop funding him, hes out.

Really an interesting insight. I knew Dodik was very pro-Western before, and I know for his very good ties with Israel, but nothing more than that. What sounds logical to me is that Trump supports his causes rather than these of Izetbegovic. That should be thanks to many circumstances. There is also that feud between Trump and Erdogan, and Izetbegovic all acts like an envoyee of Erdogan for the time being.

i think his priority cause for now is to remain on power at all costs. well see will he get support ^