Another factor to add is that users of these prediction markets have both the ability and the incentive to change their bets if they change their mind. What we have built with blockchain technology is a massive opt in market with serious financial incentives for the users.
Those who conduct polls can simply focus more on specific demographics or locations to favor the results towards a candidate of their choice. Regular centralized polls have no way to track individuals changing their mind.
PS: It is great to see you posting long form content on HIVE.
Cheers!
Good points. I think it'll be interesting to study how accurate they are at which point in the betting cycle.