It really amazes me and also gets me angry how I hear people on the main stream media talking about the recovery from the financial crisis of 2008 when the debt problem worldwide has got much worse. For instance the US public debt went from 9 trillion in 2009 to roughly 20 trillion as yet. Many people like Harry Dent argue that this will end up in a deflationary collapse because as households and institutions go bankrupt, credit "evaporates" and money becomes really scarce. However there is a flaw in their argument. If a deflationary collapse were allowed to occur, banks would shut down alongside with markets and humanity would literally be facing a Mad Max scenario.
I personally do not believe that central banks will allow this to happen. They will create as much currency as needed and will lend it to their respective governments to allow the world wheels of commerce to continue to turn. And indeed this would not create as much inflation as people would expect because once again this "money" would be handed to people at the top and would not reach the average Joe.
So then, why would gold perform well in such a scenario? Well, the problem in a my view is that central banks will also have to bail out all type of pension funds and in doing so they will literally be doing a round of QE for the average Joe. The helicopter money is coming in the form of a bailout of pension funds worldwide. If you agree with all my points up to here, now ask yourself what people at the top will do with their dollars, euros, pounds, etc, etc when they see that governments across the globe are handing out all this currency and giving it to the general public? QE "worked" well for Wall Street because all these dollars were freshly baked for the fat cats on Wall Street not for what they deem the "peasants". When the printing press is turned back on for everyone, the big money will rush into hard assets, particularly gold and silver, while the general public will be left taking electronic wheel barrows to do the shopping in a 21st century Weimar planet.
I am in touch with that emotion.
@antv
We just need to get more people in touch with that emotion.
Interesting post- I'd say you are spot on, and I couldn't agree more.
Thank you blackrussian.
Given margin debt is at ridiculous if not record levels a deflationary move is possible first. This 'crisis' will prompt helicopters and bombers full of currency and then comes the hyperinflation in my opinion.
It wouldn't surprise me to see markets closed for some time.
Precious metal in physical form in this scenario will command vastly higher prices than today.
I agree.