As a reply to @nonsowrites
Take Your Eyes of the Money
I would say:
keep your eyes on the price*
I have been here before most of you and my whole transaction history shows how I had my focus on powering up and voting. I am passionate about posting rewards and where they should go.
I try to support accounts that power up and vote, I think very little of the people who powered down Hive or Steem all the time and kept the whole community back, giving rise to curation innitiatives and a whole host of other problems.
I have also seen all sorts of price action and missed out on some obvious opportunities.
*I also think it should say ' off the money '
this time around, I will take some profits
I could not tell you what sort of pattern we are looking at, but I have seen the signs before.
I started powering down months ago and predicted exactly 0.80$ 2 months ago and I was spot on:
https://peakd.com/hive/@felixxx/some-thoughts-on-hive-and-hbd-price
However, I feel like we are going to see 0.8$ HIVE soon.
Then I found some posts by @edicted, who has a more technical approach.
This is the latest post about the topic and it all sounds pretty solid.
It matches pretty much what my gut feeling told me:
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@edicted/ten-red-flags-of-the-crypto-mega-bubble
Warning
This is not trading advice. I am trying to explain my strategy for if my vague predictions come true. I would advise you to not follow my strategy.
Don't come here complaining, if things go wrong for you.
Soetwas darf man nie unabhängig vom Gesamtmarkt betrachten.
This is my favourite trading advice, ever. Translation:
'Such things should never be judged without regards to the market at large.'
-Even if a certain trading pair goes through recognizable cycles, predicting the price perfectly is impossible. Global events of all sorts can impact different assets and you can always look for patterns of different magnitude, much like zooming in and out on your problem.
Prediction
The event I am speculating on is a price hike (soon) and a consequent bear market around HIVE.
The Hive price is not directly tied to BTC and has made gains when BTC tanked, before.
Traded right, there are some good potential profits to be made...
I have majorly fucked up opportunities like this before, though...
The Low
I expect the BTC price to crash around summer 2022.
...I would not be surprised if it hit as late as winter 2022, though.
This is when I should be in HBD or USDT already and waiting for the bottom to form, so I can get back into BTC and HIVE, unless...
...If Hive moves differently than BTC, I might look into selling my Hive for cheap BTC directly, if I haven't sold it already at that point...
The Top
I expect the top sometime between christmas 2021 and end of march 2022.
2 months ago, I expected the top to be at 0.80$. We have shot past that easily with a new ATH around 1.30$. Now, I expect the top to be around 3-5$.
I will try to guess the top right and sell most of my HIVE for USD then.
Interesting times
...very interesting.
I even moved some funds to @normaluser to play around with splinterlands and hive-engine.
I am late to the party, I know. We are in such a bull market, though. Everything seems to be growing like crazy and I am keen on buying some of those booster packs.
With Hive, I am already set up and ready for action; For Hive-engine and the tokens around it, it is almost already time to get out of, rather than into.
I am planning on making some quick moves and perhaps practice some, to be set up for when the bear market is over.
Long term
Long term I am bullish on BTC and HIVE - crypto in general.
Short term, I expect a dip and I want to trade it.
I kept 17k HP in my account, because I want to keep voting, of course.
Also something to keep in mind:
Traditionally, during times of low HIVE prices, posting rewards in HIVE are the best.
I remember getting 200 STEEM for a single post, while the payout was evaluated at around 28$, only.
There are times for hodling and there are times for playing your hand
...may you know when. Good luck!
"I kept 17k HP in my account, because I want to keep voting, of course."
Been on the same line of thought as well I had to power down and keep a a little sum of 700hp for action time.
Also wishing not to power down in order to grow my hive account the choice was hard, to keep the HP and not find anything to trade with.
Good choice to enter Splinterlands finally because if bull continues it will be the most popular blockchain game with million daily players, right now there are 420k. If you think today is crazy it will become even crazier.
...but that is the exact moment you should already be starting to capitalize...
The thing about cards is that you don't want to sell them because you need them to win games, and also you can rent them. All the airdrop points you get from them are nice, sps will have more use cases with time, it's all thought out nicely. Keeps you playing and keeps you invested in the game. Taking profits is always a wise choice because you never know with BTC market, it can all crash and burn fast and unexpected..
And the funny thing about this is the fact that the lower the Hive price, the less people are posting. Or at least this is what I experienced so far.
Explained beautifully and technically. I am just minnow and i will accumulate hive for my better future.
But surely if i would have more hive definitely i will be followed you.
when moon ser
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 71/91) Liquid rewards.
🌚🔜
When the price of hive is expected to reach $3 to $5?
🔜
Let see and lets hope.
Thanks for the post sir. I believe so many people wish to hold their coins but due to some economic hardship, they sell even at cheap price. I have always wanted to accumulate coins for the future and even wish to buy and power up but most times, the little we have serve as feeding money.
They are good advice friend to keep us always up with our transactions both #Hive and #HBD and if we must know the exact time to get the maximum possible benefit