I think the alphabay move does not go into effect until sept 1 so the increase is actually all speculation and not a sign it being used on dark web. It will be interesting if that causes a new spike or if it's a sell the news type of effect.
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agreed
Yes I commented very similarly somewhere else recently, so I would agree 100%. There is another significant market that added Monero support and is live already but I'm sure usage there is still low so it still comes down to speculation about the future.