Back on January 25th, I issued a 7-day U.S. Quake forecast because of the M8.0 quake that struck off the southern coast of Alaska, and the seismic pressure patterns that I observed. In a series of e-mails, including updated magnitudes, I said to watch the west coast of the U.S. for multiple M5.0 quakes, as well as the potential for M6.0 and above striking off the coast of Oregon.
It has been 7-days, and it is time to update you as to what has happened since I sent out the original forecast. I indicated in one of the e-mails that seismic pressure may be delayed in transferring, as had happened in the past, and we may have to extend some of the forecast a few more days, and that is the case. But, let’s see what has happened so far.
Below are excerpts from the original forecast. Blue font shows the current updates and my comments.
1-25-18 U.S. 7-day Quake Forecast – ALERTS!
Now that M5.8 and M5.0 quakes have struck off the coast of northern California, what should we expect next? (Remember, USGS says all these quakes and volcanic eruptions around the Ring of Fire are unrelated, random events! If you follow this expert advice, you will remain ignorant, and be shocked and surprised at what happens next. If you ignore these warnings, you may find yourself in trouble, as well. Don’t wait for “official” governmental agency warnings – it will be too late. Act on the best information available, and inform your family, friends, and co-workers of what to do in the event of an earthquake.)
For those who want to be informed, here are the areas in the U.S. to watch for quakes to strike over the next 7 days (probably within 3-5 days). The potential magnitudes given are the highest that I expect to strike in each region (and because I might be wrong, you should prepare for one magnitude higher than what I expect, just to be safe!). People in these areas should be aware, alert, and prepared for earthquakes to strike. If you have friends or family in these areas, you need to tell them to be alert, aware, and ready for possible earthquakes.
Washington/Oregon border region: This area may or may not have missed the brunt of a larger quake, so stay alert, more strikes are likely in the M5.0+ range off the west coast. A M4.9 quake struck off the coast of Oregon. A few days later, USGS went back and corrected the magnitude to M5.5. We rarely ever see USGS upgrade a quake several days after it occurs. I allow a 1 magnitude margin of error on all quake forecasts, so this is only half (0.5) a magnitude from the actual. We will watch Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier for possible quakes in the M3.0-4.0 range or eruptive activity. A new swarm of quakes began near Mount St. Helens, and Mt. Rainier also saw a few small quakes. Thus far, the magnitudes have remained low, below the forecasted potential.
California: Swarms will increase statewide, particularly in the central and southern parts of the state, with the next large event likely striking in southern California, along the San Andreas fault system, from Los Angeles to Salton Sea (inland). We could see a quake potential of M5.2-5.7 (revised downward to M4.7-5.4) strike the region. The San Francisco Bay area should also be on watch for potential quakes above M5.0 to strike. Swarms across the state have taken a huge jump, exactly as was forecasted, especially in the southern part of the state, near Salton Sea, along the Anza Gap. A new swarm has broken out southeast of Monterey Bay on the San Andreas fault. I revised the original forecasted magnitudes slightly downward and also revised the strike zone. Though still along the San Andreas fault system, I now lean toward the north of the originally named area as the mostly likely to be struck - San Francisco Bay, south to Santa Barbara, and north Los Angeles, although the southern portion of the San Andreas could also be struck. I think it likely that the west coast will see a pair of similar size quakes close to M5.0 (M4.7-5.4), striking on both the north end and south end of this portion of the fault.
Yellowstone: Expect increased activity in numbers and magnitudes of the swarm, including areas outside the park itself, (Wyoming) including western Montana, and eastern Idaho. Swarms may reach potential high magnitudes of M4.4-5.4. A new swarm broke out in southeastern Idaho, where we had not seen any major movement in many weeks. Magnitudes reached M4.7, as was forecasted. Earthquakes have also struck in both Montana and Wyoming (M3.4 today), as forecasted.
Colorado: Expect the southern border with New Mexico, west of Trinidad, as well as other areas of the state to be struck with quakes reaching a potential of M4.5-5.5. New quakes struck near Trinidad, Colorado, on the New Mexico border, exactly as forecasted. So far, magnitudes have been about one magnitude less than the forecast.
Texas: Western and southern Texas, at the major oil and gas fracking operations, (Snyder, Ft. Stockton, and south of Dallas/Ft. Worth region) should be alerted for potential strikes in the M4.4-5.4 range. We have not yet seen any quakes in the forecast range here, as of yet.
Oklahoma/Kansas: Watch the oil and gas fracking operations along the northern border of Oklahoma/southern Kansas and in north-central Oklahoma to see renewed quake activity with potential quake magnitudes reaching M4.7-5.7. The oil and gas fracking operations along the northern border of Oklahoma and southern Kansas have seen renewed activity, as was forecasted, but quake magnitudes have so far been about one magnitude below the forecast range.
Kansas: Both north central and south central Kansas should be on alert. Potential areas include Mankato/Smith Center, southwest of Hutchinson, southwest of Wichita, including Anthony and Wellington areas. Magnitudes could reach potentials of M4.6-5.4. Southern Kansas, near Anthony, has been struck so far, but magnitudes have been less than the forecasted range.
New Madrid seismic zone: Whatever seismic pressure is left over after the quakes reach Oklahoma and Kansas will spill into the New Madrid region of southeastern Missouri, with increased seismic activity about one magnitude less than whatever struck the Oklahoma/Kansas region. The New Madrid seismic zone, which had been quiet, was struck by two quakes during this time frame, and the magnitudes have been about one magnitude less that what struck in Kansas and Oklahoma, as expected.
Tennessee up through the Appalachians and along the east coast of the U.S. to New York and farther to the northeast, should expect to be struck by multiple quakes about one magnitude less that what strikes in the New Madrid region. So, we watch for potential M2.9-4.2 quakes. Tennessee, Ohio, and New York were struck with multiple M2.6-3.0 quakes, exactly as forecasted. These areas are seldom struck with notable earthquakes. USGS decides to censor the New York (M3.0) quake by not reporting it at all.
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In the Quake News and Update that came out just prior to the original 7-day forecast, I said to watch seismic pressure move to the northeast from Alaska, as well as to the south along the west coast. So we should watch Nunavut, Greenland, and the North Pole for potential strikes. [These regions are seldom struck by earthquakes.] In the first few days after the Alaska quake, Nunavut, Greenland, and the North Pole region (north of Svalbard) were struck with multiple quakes, ranging from M4.4-5.0, as expected.
I am extending this general forecast for another 5 days, since again, as I indicated earlier, we haven’t yet seen a full transfer of the seismic pressure off the Alaska M8.0 quake. Aftershocks in the Gulf of Alaska continue, which continues to put pressure to the south along the coast of California and Oregon. I expect more quakes will strike at the named target regions, and magnitudes to rise in some areas. So, we’re not done yet!
Watch and see!