· I am issuing a WARNING for the west coast of California, specifically San Francisco Bay south to Santa Barbara and north L.A., along the San Andreas fault system, for potential M4.7-5.4 quake(s) to strike inland in the next 3-5 days. There may be more than one quake to strike the region in this magnitude range. I will likely extend the forecast if the expected quake doesn’t happen within this time frame. If you live in this region, you will likely feel it, and it will shake things up. Overall damage should be relatively light to moderate, but some people will panic and do something stupid – so watch out for stupid people! There is no need to panic.
You should always prepare for the largest potential forecasted magnitude plus one, in case I miss it too low. Better safe, than sorry!
We have a large number of west coast California subscribers, so please send feedback if you feel it, and e-mail any stories or damage photos. Have you got that flashlight, yet? You may need it! Just for reference, the Loma Prieta quake in 1989, which some of you will remember, was a M6.9, which is many times larger than what I am expecting to strike this week. So, again, no need to panic!
A new Quake Update for the U.S. will be out tomorrow night, so watch for it!
· I am now issuing a WARNING for the next 3-5 days for a M6.4-7.4 earthquake to strike again in Iran. At the higher end of this magnitude range, there will be extensive structural damage, injuries, and deaths in populated areas. I am expecting the strike to be in central Iran, however the exact epicenter is yet to be seen. The region is already hard hit from previous large quakes.
Get the word out and stay safe!
I do miss some forecasts from time to time, and I hope this one turns out to be a miss or very mild for both regions, but I can’t base my calculations on mere hope, so be prepared. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst!
Watch and see!
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