The money is created on the blockchain, not given away by Steemit. On July 4th, 10% of the current amount of Steem tokens will be added to the total, by distributing them to participants in form of SP and SD. The displayed value is based on the assumption that the market cap of steem remains the same until then.
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And what happens if the market cap changes? I assume it is likely to increase?
The payout value directly follows the market cap. Coinmarketcap is a bit distorted though, they substracted Steemit's stake from the total amount. Real market cap is at 26.8M at this very moment.
And an increase in market cap would add or reduce the value? I assume reduce?
No, add of course :D In the end, you receive Steem in one form or another. That amount is decided on by the blockchain, dependend on the votes. When a Steem is worth more, your payout is too.