I criticized the blatant falsehoods spewed by Donald Trump's opponents yesterday. Today, I want to poke holes in one of Trump's campaign talking points: tariffs and taxes. I tried my best to avoid posting about politics throughout October, but I think it's worth tackling a few things here at the tail end of a bizarre campaign cycle.
Trump has been a financially successful businessman. Whether he accrued his wealth morally is very much open to debate, but he has made a lot of money over the years. He was famous enough for a cameo in Home Alone II: Lost in New York (1992), and even before that, Bloom County poked fun at him by transplanting his brain. That was a weird story arc. To be fair, I didn't read it then. I discovered the collected comics in one of my parents' books some years after it was first published.
Bloom County by Berkeley Breathed for February 13, 1989
He may have a reputation for business, making deals, generating profits, and so on, but he's embarrassingly ignorant of deeper history and economics. He seems to trust his gut and follow hunches, but those are poor tools to navigate complex issues. On one hand, he seems open to surrounding himself with (slightly) better advisors this time around, but on the other, he's still an arrogant windbag who wants immediate results, and damn the consequences.
111 years ago, the scoundrel Woodrow Wilson used the very real problems of tariffs on trade and the burden they placed on businesses and consumers alike to justify his income tax scheme. It was sold with assurances it would only affect the richest 3% or so of the population, and only at a light burden for even them. No, the internet rumors of his contrition and regret are absolutely fake. He was a true believer in bureaucracy and political management of society to the end.
Now, Trump promises tariffs as a cure for the flaws of income taxation and its burdens on the working man. He has no idea what harm they did over a century in the past. Last time Trump was in office, his tax cuts (good) were accompanied by increased spending (bad) and unprecedented money supply inflation in response to COVID lockdown policies (even worse). This time around, his populist instincts are leading him to potentially suggest real cuts to government, but I really doubt that will actually happen.
In addition, we're still facing the unresolved issues of an inverted yield curve, another housing market bubble, price inflation as a ripple effect of that money supply inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, a consumer debt crisis, international military entanglements, and more. No matter what really happens, the media will report the unraveling chaos as "a consequence of Donald Trump's reckless laissez-faire policies destroying our great institutions."
To be fair to Trump, tariffs are part of the Constitution's core authorities, so if you believe in the legitimacy of the Constitution, it's at least less egregious than direct apportioned taxes on wages. However, Trump's brand of nationalistic populism is infected with shortsighted protectionism instead of a sound grasp of comparative advantage and the benefits of real free trade. Americans like to tell themselves we have a "free market economy," but nothing could be further from the truth. As of 2024, we are #25 behind countries like Denmark, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic, many of which are known for burdensome welfare states that are arguably far less dysfunctional than that of the USA.
Would a Trump victory mean more economic freedom? Maybe. He at least has some experience in market-adjacent activities, unlike most candidates for any national office. However, he's also a man with a history of failures and mistakes. He's a terrible judge of character base don his political history. I'm also not convinced he's really a major shift from the political mainstream no matter how much he's painted as the outsider maverick enemy of the system. An enemy of factions within the system? Sure. A threat to its existence? Wishful thinking at best.
I can make an argument that Trump is the lesser evil, but I still believe he is deeply corrupt and evil. He is not equipped with the moral foundation or philosophical principles to navigate the problems we face. We already know the media and partisan opponents will blame him for everything beyond his control, and twist anything he accidentally does right into some kind of high crime. His inability to articulate any deeper principles behind just saying things he thinks will earn popular support is a bad sign.
Old post:
An Alternative to Trump
Writing playlist excerpts:
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Smalltown Poets, 48 States
Dime Store Prophets, Yeah Sure OK Monet
Tariffs are weird.
It will make everything in Wallymart cost more. But, maybe that is a good thing, so it isn't as much of a shock when China stops trading with us. Xi da pooh is really ramping up anti-American rhetoric over there.
Trade makes allies of groups you trade with. Supposedly. So, maybe no tariffs are better.
The only thing that will be better about Trump getting in, is Trump got in.
(and he might do something good.)
No Tariffs were important for the world reserve currency holder.
We needed everyone using dollars.
And there is the real reason.
Keeping dollars flowing internationally and encouraging importation of cheap foreign goods is one of the ways they mitigate the adverse effects of money supply inflation. My efforts to find better boots and clothing have only revealed how expensive things really are when the veneer of prosperity is torn away.
On the other hand, there is the old adage that says when goods don't cross borders, armies do. Trade with China has curtailed the war hawks in both countries. Closing trade means their corporate cronies no longer have something to lose from war. Trump has had quite hawkish rhetoric regarding China, and while it's largely bluster now, who knows what would happen if that trade slowed to a trickle?
The answer is real free trade and consumer choice in money, but that requires breaking laws nowadays.
While both are bad I think Tariffs are better than the income tax. However, while Donald Trump may succeed in instituting new tariffs, he won't succeed in getting rid of the income tax so the most likely scenario is just more taxes. Even if he manages to work out a deal with congress that reduces income tax, it will just go up again later...with or without removal/reduction of tariffs.
Everyone in the working class paying income taxes was last instituted as a temporary emergency measure for WW2, and we know there is nothing more permanent than a temporary government measure. See also: Nixon taking the US off the gold standard entirely.
As far back as I can remember, Trump has been a performer. That is the best I can say about him. He gets way too much credit. The guy is not qualified to be the President of USA. He is a psychopath and it is sad that a system is #TooFuckeh enough that he meets the qualifications to be on a ballot. Looking forward to seeing him in an orange jumpsuit. Certainly not someone you can trust. Last time he put tariffs on Canadian lumber. Not a neighbourly thing to do. !LOLZ
The only qualifications are age and citizenship. The only people who want power are either corrupt already or susceptible to corruption.
I guess the founders didn't consider a psychopath destroying their hard work.
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I think Trump is surrounding himself with better people this time around. And he now has 4 years experience as president and hopefully he has learned from his mistakes. Not that he can't make new mistakes!