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RE: Real Estate Is A Fools Investment

in #real-estate4 years ago

However to me these are all emotive rationale and im considering things purely on numbers basis!

Yes, I know this. But I also think that due to the way we work, we often make immediate economic decisions that are potentially damaging to our long-term economic conditions.

Is it a store of value? Yes I would agree depending on the area and home condition as you say but is it the best or most reliable probably not!

Depending on where it is. in a city (close to) is pretty robust - in a small town with one industry that supports it - there is no floor on the drop when the company inevitably fails or moves.

I am also quite apprehensive on property having lived in a country where my parents and grandparents had their homes taken from them by the government so yeah something so rigid and tangible carries risks we often don’t think about due to being in a politically “safe zone”

This is definitely a location, location, location thing ... But, it can essentially and probably will happen everywhere in time, we just have to wait long enough. I can't see it happening in Finland in my lifetime, but who knows these days with the retarded social movements people ascribe to.

Running the numbers as I like to do, just in general it doesn’t seem like a good investment in the current macro conditions

We bought just before Corona arrived - we were unlucky in some respects, lucky in others - since we were able to sell our apartment at a good price, but we probably could have got the house a little cheaper. All in all, we are up in the changeover there though. Then, it is going to also factor in culture, where people are going to change their habits over time. There are tens of thousands of apartments that are near identical being built around the cities - not many standalone homes. But, the ones that are standing can end up getting a lot of demand when the swing happens in the other direction - which in some places it is because of Corona and people needing office space, something that most apartments (in Finland) just don't have - let alone enough space for a couple to work comfortably from home at the same time. There will likely be more remote work in the new normal, and some will change their home spaces to suit.

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I agree with you on we live in a world where immediate economic gains drive a lot of malinvestment (of resources and time in the future), I talk about it often. I have seen many people think their wealth is in their homes and end up with nothing, I encourage people to deleverage and not have 60-90% of their wealth in a home.

Indeed all you mention their location, access to amenities, political stability, capital inflows in the region are all speculative value adds that you need to price into the purchase.

It's like buying equity in a company, how much are you willing to pay to get access to their free cash flows that may be used to pay you divident or increase the price of your investment in the future. We don't know if the company will continue to do well, but we hedge that future risk price it in and make the purchase.

I think many homeowners don't do this, they price the home based on what the bank is willing to give them and because the majority of homeowners don't take the time to run the numbers on a value basis, they just bid up prices like a passive index fund. Whatever money the bank allows gets ploughed into the property price.

I totally get the motivation, but there you already mention the cost-benefit, you're getting more space to both work from home and you made an investment decision that has the potential to offset the losses. I eventually have to do this I know, I am just building up capital reserves.

I am also not tied to purchasing in any one country least of not my own, as I also work remotely I have the luxury of spending less as the location doesn't matter as much, more the value/size amenities I can get for my money