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It did for ligue 1. Other Leagues is a complete different story!

I expect that @djoker will have a theory as to why :-D

I don't have any point of view about that yet ^^.

However I agree on @beat-the-bookies point, what would be really interesting would be to compare the percentages given by your model and the odds. Then you can place a bet each time the odd is higher than the prob, and see if the model would be a long term win.

If you want to, I would also be interested in the way the calculations are done. (I could fully understand you do not want to share it yet)

I will give you some insights in our discord channel