That's interesting about trends and tendencies. Completely agree about betting when there's value in the streak continuing.
I try to just rely on the stats blindly so as not to cloud the judgement and hopefully to have some form of 'repeatability'. But having said that, i think there's a lot of value in being able to handicap with a bottom's approach especially when taking into account things like motivation, injuries, resting players, weather etc. I could never do it though lol.