According to the University of Oxford, almost 50% of all jobs will be replaced by robots in years to come. Robots or AI will one day do your work potentially. What does this mean for you? Will you enjoy more leisure time or will you be left without a means to make money to survive?
Robots and AI are already radically changing the way we see work and employment. In the past eras of technological revolution, entire labor forces were able to adapt and move into new fields of industry, but that doesn’t mean the next technological revolution will be as smooth. Machine learning is on the rise. Augmented and virtual reality is entering our reality at a rapid pace. Now not only is the concept of work becoming redefined but even reality is not what it was. Soon we may not even be able to tell the difference between real and virtual realities as simulated life merges into our mainstream living like a subtle tidal swell in the zeitgeist of tomorrow. A sea change is upon us as a tidal shift occurs.
And it’s already here. In 2016 Amazon increased their transport robots from 30 000 to 45 000. Initially it was seen as a possible cause for loss of jobs but on the contrary, more than 100 000 new jobs were subsequently added over the following 18 months. So as old jobs are replaced, it seems as if new ones will emerge.
Similarly, the financial sector has had algorithmic traders buying and selling stocks and shares on Wall St and the like for years already. They are faster and better than humans at trading by far, since trading is all about math and probability, which is programmable. In cryptocurrency, for example, where there is trading 24/7, robot trading software can trade all day and night without the need for sleep like regular human traders. This is naturally a huge benefit in a constantly changing market. How often have we been observing the market for a good trade only to see it slip us by because we had to take rest on our side of the planet while the other side traded in full daylight?
Robot analysts are in fact taking out not the lower labor force jobs but also the top skilled analysts and financial advisers who usually make around $350 000 to $500 000 a year. Imagine saving that much on salaries in your company. Even jobs like journalism are being taken over by robot writers. What might have taken writers hundreds of hours to compile can now be done by a template robot in a fraction of the time.
And these AI workers are popping up in some unexpected places as the years unfold. No job is safe anymore.
“It's quite simple: if your job can be easily explained it can be automated, if it can't it wont.” Anders Sandberg from Oxford
The future of work is going to look quite different. This may affect countries differently depending on their fundamentals I would presume. For example a third world country with already high unemployment may be slower to initiate AI but if it does it’s possible unemployment will rise, particularly among unskilled labor. As a result we may need to rethink our definition of work or create new types of work. At times like these a Universal Basic Income (UBI) will be appealing to some countries.
The good news is that in all probability the jobs of the future have not even been thought of yet. Technology moves so fast that even a few years ago there was no such thing as a SEO specialist to improve your online reach, or even a website designer to build your ad page for you. All the IT and tech jobs are constantly evolving. And in the future many more of us may have the time to do art and contemplate the philosophical meaning of life while robots do the much-needed jobs to keep the world turning.
The potential for a dystopian future, where humans are no longer needed by the elite and slowly done away with by sterilization or decreased breeding, does begin to look like a possibility, particularly with the Georgia Guide Stones telling us that the world should ideally be half a billion citizens. Will the elite cull us in the future to fit their small population agenda? Or will we come up with new ways to employ the millions of uneducated masses? Or will we simply give everyone free money to live on, like the unemployment benefits that used to be made available in some countries in the past? Socialism, where the state feeds and clothes the masses, is somewhat frowned upon by many due to its dubious misuse in the past, but isn’t the UBI just more of the same?
Surely the masses will not be content to just sit around unproductive for all their lives? Perhaps playing computer games all day will be a pleasant pastime by then, as it is for kids today already, particularly when augmentation arrives. Hopefully by then they will have in-game credits where they can earn an income or trade credits which can be used in real world cases, like for food and health. What is your forecast for the future on planet earth for the masses of unemployable humanity as the robots take over the jobs? Let us know in the comments below.
Ref: https://bigthink.com/big-think-books/the-robots-are-coming
Hey Julian! It's interesting - that you linked Universal Basic Income with socialism. I never thought about it in that way before. I was a proponent for it, but on second thoughts, I'm not very sure if it is also a means of keeping everyone satisfied at a low minimum standard of living.
That, would be very dystopian-like indeed.
Yes I'm no expert, but the concept of the UBI is a very complex one to see objectively. It may foster a lower survival mode of little creativity, because necessity is the mother of invention so if you have your basic needs met, you may end up vegetating and not creating, which is not ideal for the masses but may pacify us so the elite can carry on growing. The pros and cons of it are intricate.
UBI is absolutely a socialist policy. It is an allocation of the tax budget (and therefore paid for by tax payers). Socialist (government-controlled/centralized) economic policy is the opposite of free market policy... and in every case, free market allows for competitive solutions which gives us the best possible solution... UBI from taxation is not a free market solution, and therefore does not get the benefit of "best possible value" that a true free market enables.
Dear @jbgarrison72
Tax budget is build on tax payers but also on corporations that are paying taxes.
Imagine scenario, where corporations need to pay higher taxes for "access to the market". At some stage those taxes will means so so so much more than all taxation coming from "humans".
UBI can happen. That's an economic model that could be achieved in the future. But the biggest challenge is social impact on us. I can forsee large scale of suicides being a problem.
Yours
Piotr
There are some smoke and mirrors with the presentation and understanding of corporations. In reality, as you know, a "corporation" as it exists to day is a government creation (the fiat decree that allows the corporation to come into existence is a charter or license). Corporations are really just "government" warrants which place them farther away from an actual free market... especially through the displacement of liability (individuals are protected by government from the consequences that a single person not operating under the government shielding of "corporation" would not be protected from).
Corporations are another way for government to maintain control of who does business and to stifle undesired competition for goods and services it decides to maintain firm control on. Government only selectively regulates "corporations," ultimately to its own benefit (and more on point, to the benefit of it's chief influencers/owners).
The free market always regulates from the opposite direction, that is, rather than shutting out/regulating out competition... it always provides and open avenue for more new and better services and products to emerge in the gap left by bad business practices.
Such a free market always creates more value because it only ADDS value whereas government regulation always works by LIMITING value so that its favored "entities" can thrive without competition.
Thus, a free market, which always presents new niches of value, allows ANYONE who desires to work and improve his/her economic status to go forth and do so to the best of his/her ability and... to profit!
A regulated government environment, kills value and through taxation and distributed "free stuff" (to include any sort of UBI), it kills incentive to improve one's economic situation through producing more and better.
Thank you for that brilliant comment @jbgarrison72
Dear friend @julianhorack, thank you for sharing this publication with us.
Friend all this seems a frightening and daunting scenario for many, it is true that technology is advancing at an accelerated pace and it seems imminent that this happens. I also think that as you wrote at the beginning, new jobs will arise so that people can generate income, a clear example is the cryptocurrencies, years ago no one imagined that with virtual money could bring food to your table.
Time will tell what will be our species and where we are going to stop with all these technological advances, for now we will continue adapting to the things that are emerging along the way.
Thanks for this great post.
Pr EV
Hi @julianhorack and @crypto.piotr
I have a different view on the subject. When I look at life I look at the process of evolution. The species evolved from previously existing species.
The new species were more adapt at facing the challenges thrown at them.
Even withing a give species with every new generation there is change and sign of evolution.
Coming to the topic of us humans right from birth we learn new skills, imbibe and evolve. So change and learning are part of evolution and there is no escape.
Had we not evolved we would be still hanging and jumping from trees and not having this discussion.
So whatever changes occur and whatever challenges our we as a species are fully adapt in dealing with it. Yes there would be new set of jobs that would evolve and so there would be opportunities to learn train our selves , get new skills and develop our brains further.
This is the positive side of the situation and I believe it is upto us to convert the challenges into opportunities.
Dear @thetimetravelerz
Very wise words!
Thank you again for your super-valuable feedback. I absolutely love reading your comments!
I wonder if that means that we can always adapt. Animals also always have been adapting until smart spieces (humans) dominated their world. Perhaps we will adapt too and we will live soon in "Human ZOO" ?:)
Yours
Piotr
Ha ha. Ha love your valuable comments buddy
Does it mean some of us would graduate from the human circus to live in a human zoo ?
You take care buddy ;)
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Hey @julianhorack,
great article and a nice read. I think the "easy jobs" will dissapear and will be handled by robots. I think we are in place to think about creativity and new solutions.
Not based on numbers but trying things out :)
I only see the problem that some people have no opportunity to work in a creative job. Or a highly specialized one, we have to think about a solution for them.
Cheers Max
Dear @mcnestler
Thank you for sharing your view on that particular topic with me. Appreciate it a lot.
ps. your profile says: "Social Entrepreneur". Would you mind telling me more about it? what do you do? Something related to blockchain by any chance?
Yours
Piotr
Hey, @crypto.piotr thank you for your reply :)
I state social entrepreneur because I was writing my master thesis about social entrepreneurs. Back in university, I wanted to reform the learning system. I wanted to bring the research paper online and combine it with a subscription model so the general public could also have access to it. Unfortunately, I did not have the time to do it, but every business idea also has some social aspects in my opinion.
Cheers,
Max
Thank you for always being so responsive @mcnestler :)
The only real "jobs" any human performs are eating, sleeping, procreating, protecting offspring... and any tasks in support of those primary ones.
The ideal outcome is that robots which "produce" more than can be consumed such that they benefit and enhance human "work" will be tolerated. Those that do not will find themselves buried somewhere in the back 40 (along with any such human masters that think to infringe upon other humans through leveraging control of said "mal-productive" robots).
I am not really worried about my job or my future, because I don't care. I changed my profession (including education and papers) 14 times. Not everybody will be able to do so, can afford it or pay for the study (good internet exists and no one cares about papers, etc any longer).
Some jobs will always exist because people want personal interaction. A robot can not give it to you but will probably be a better doctor as mine is.
Customer services already work with computers and they are too stupid (badly programmed) to understand your question unless you talk like an imbecile. So people will be needed there.
Not everybody can be an engineer but the good news is there is a huge lack of plumbers and auto mechanics.
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Dear @wakeupkitty
Wow. Being able to adapt is surely your strong feature.
Thanks for taking the time to share your opinion with us. Appreciate it. Have a great sunday ahead.
Yours, Piotr
I wish you a great 🌞day as well, I am.off to bed.
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Greetings @julianhorack, get here thanks to @crypto.piotr, excellent article, as always thanks for recommending me good readings.
I start by saying no, or it is not so usual that I start to think that especially in these times (because of the country situation, and the state of the semester in the university) but if at some point with some friends and engineers and others that are as I am still studying, we have discussed about that.
While it is true that we as humans are limited by certain qualities whether physical, mental, natural to say them in some way, is something that these technologies lack (referring to artificial intelligence and robots) as we know or either they are independent or they are mostly semiautomatic or automatic, but to a certain extent, since without a programmer behind them they could not get where they are.
We must bear in mind that the growth of these technologies has been rapid and has not yet reached a ceiling so to speak (you can not see it either, as they are increasingly able to perform better and faster tasks than we do in the the same time we could not) which for a company would be a benefit monetarily speaking.
Of course, many jobs are going to go down because due to the growth that will represent these in the industries from manufacturing to design, they will greatly reduce the presence of humans who will either have to look for other employment or training in the works of tomorrow that may be related (I think) to the world of computer science, but we must note that not everyone is useful for that and that you can not have everyone doing the same thing because nothing makes sense.
That's why I also think that maybe (there are) or jobs or sub-jobs with a modest payment (similar to a pension) for all those people who are not able to work in environments where everything is controlled by robots because you can not sustain an economy in the great style of a government like Maduro where everything is money given right and left to people because obviously you generate inflation and other particular qualities of these practices ...
Let's hope that here comes that time we can adapt or at best be in one of those jobs where we can not at least be replaced because I also think that emotionally affect people, because if someone kills himself studying for something that you always longed for and when you go to your workplace they tell you "no friend you can not work (a robot) does everything better than you, looks for another job" emotionally hits or at least that's what I think.
No more greetings to both of you and have a great start to the week, God bless you
Another brilliant feedback @jjqf
Thank you for sharing your view on that particular topic with me. Appreciate it a lot.
We're clearly quite on the same page with judgement of current situation and future progress.
Yours, Piotr
Thanks to you @crypto.piotr, always recommend me very good and interesting articles, as we would say here thanks my pana (pana is a colloquial way of saying friend)
Thanks to @crypto.piotr for telling me about this post.
AI is simply put a very powerful tool- like fire or the wheel or the Uranium Atom. How man uses it is the big question?
Who will be replaced? Well, the way tech is progressing- more than half of the work force. But NOT Tomorrow or the Next month. Maybe 30-40 years down the line. Automation has already begun but the scope is pretty limited and 3-4 Billion people are a lot to replace.
The exponential increase in tech can end many problems and bottlenecks which throttle the progress of many regions of the world, so more production at less cost can sustain a UBI. How this pans out is anybody's guess.
For older people like me- I am already being outdated from my profession slowly but surely. Looking for new avenues after taking a hard look at reality is probably the only way to stay on top of this tech- wave.
Another brilliant feedback @sarez
Thank you for sharing your view on that particular topic with me. Appreciate it a lot.
We're clearly quite on the same page with judgement of current situation and future progress.
Yours, Piotr
Dear @julianhorack
When reading your publication, this phrase came to my mind
“Descartes”:
In that the human being has become only thoughts that then exist and become a reality that in turn can replace us.
However, that era could never be the same as a human and always the human would find a way to survive his own destruction
I hope so
If there are no human workers, before long there are also no companies to use AI. People need money to buy from the companies for them to survive. So if we cross a tipping point in the balance between work done by humans vs automated, there will be economic collapse, forcing governments to step in. What response they will have is likely to vary by country. But ultimately there needs to be a means of exchanging productive value for things and experiences people value, or you wind up with a lot of misery and instability.
Very wise comment @indigoocean
Now question is: will we "humans" find a way to avoid this scanrio?
Yours
Piotr
The Oxford study has 2 problems. First, it uses a high estimate of high job loss. More realistic estimates are in the 10-14% range. Second, it repeats the Luddite fallacy that these jobs will be lost permanently or replaced by lower-wage jobs. More likely, new higher-wage jobs will be created. What those jobs will be, we can't predict.
As for high-frequency, algorithmic trading, that actually destroys value by increasing volatility. It's becoming more likely that a small transaction tax on stocks and options will be introduced that will make it unprofitable without significantly harming regular traders.
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Dear @rufusfirefly
Very wise words!
Thank you again for your super-valuable feedback. I absolutely love reading your comments!
Yours
Piotr
hi @julianhorack I know this post from @crypto.piort if talking about robots is endless, robots are made by humans and that too certainly takes a lot of costs to be spent, and if in the future all the work is replaced by robots then What do humans have to do? Do you want to replace all of your work with robots? But it seems impossible because robots are regulated and controlled by humans.😄
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Hi @anitacarolina
Big thx for sharing your opinion. Appreciate your time :)
Enjoy your sunday,
Cheers,
Piotr
Hello @julianhorack,
First of all, @crypto.piotr sent me.
I just want to verbalize why do people seem to be obsessed with their jobs being taken over by robots or artificial intelligence. Yes. they are very efficient and someday- if that someday will ever occur, they will be able to interpret our moods/ words.
I believe that like tools, robots are efficient tools but, they will always require us humans, their overlords to look after them. While they may be amazing on logic based problems and tasks, they are very poor in psychosocial skills because, its something innate that we humans adapt.
We cannot even completely understand and interpret each other's cultures despite our similarities as humans, how can other "species" such as a machine do so? Because our culture, behaviour and interpretations on life depends on our experiences.
With that thought, why should "cooks" be alarmed that they will be replaced by machines? it can be possible that that "dash" of salt or seasoning makes a difference in a dish which a machine can never pick up because there is no specific value in a "dash."
Same way in the medical field. When a patient is deteriorating, how do nurses and other health care provider picks that up- its not because the patient will immediately exhibit abnormal results. Their vital signs and laboratory tests are still normal but, there are already tell tale signs in the way they speak, breathe, and even on the way they move.
That's a little something that machines even if created by the best programmers in the world can never duplicate. Because, they are logic based. They can never integrate logic with psychosocial skills which we humans had been doing for a very long time.
Another brilliant feedback @nurseanne84
Thank you for sharing your view on that particular topic with me. Appreciate it a lot.
We're clearly quite on the same page with judgement of current situation and future progress.
Yours, Piotr
Another way to respond to this "scare" of loss of jobs to robots -
Massive job losses have already happened:
Hi @freedomshift
Big thx for sharing your opinion. Appreciate your time :)
Enjoy your sunday,
Cheers,
Piotr
Let me begin by playing English teacher for a bit. The first paragraph of this article could have been improved. The first sentence ends with the phrase "in years to come". This is very sloppy language, and I seriously doubt the Oxford study you are paraphrasing used that wording. If you're going to quote from a study as your authority for the basic premise of your essay, you should at least use the same description of time frame, and by rights you should also provide a link to that source.
In your second sentence the placement of the word "potentially" distorts and confuses what you are trying to say. It would have been better phrased as "Potentially, robots or AI will one day do your work."
Please understand that it is not my intention to engage in gratuitous Grammar Nazi nitpicking. Rather it is my intention to point out ways in which imprecise use of language is preventing you from clearly communicating what you are trying to say.
On to the meat of the matter. My own feelings on this subject are neatly captured by a reply I made to @neavvy in a thread on this same subject.
https://steemit.com/steemstem/@redpossum/re-neavvy-our-fear-of-artificial-intelligence-is-it-reasoned-20190205t185241729z
I fear the nightmare scenario outlined in your penultimate paragraph is the most likely outcome.
The question is what are we going to DO about it? If we do nothing, we leave our fate in the hands of those who have no reason to love us, and every reason to dispose of us as soon as we become unnecessary.
Dear @redpossum
Thank you for that very valuable lesson. I appreciate your effort and time. Seriously.
Reading comments like the one you wrote can benefit someone not involved (me).
That is indeed excellent question. Most of us can only do their best to adapt to whatever changes will happen.
Yours
Piotr
hello,
I came here due to
I worked in AI since 1985 and can tell you - not to worry about -
Artificial Intelligence includes -
It's inevitable that robots and AI are going to replace some jobs moving forward. This is because it leads to better productivity and we as a human race have to keep improving our productivity. This has been happening throughout history. The invention of machines, the industrial revolution and the widespread usage of Internet just to name a few.
It is thus important to be prepared for the changes to come. At the personal level, we must all try to learn new skills beyond our own scope of work. Governments should implement measures to reskill endangered workers. It will be a fallacy for governments to try to force companies to keep the old jobs as that will only impede productivity.
With more automation, new jobs will be unlocked and humans as a whole should see a better life. Don't fear the change, learn to embrace it. Or better still, leverage it :)
Another brilliant feedback @culgin
Thank you for sharing your view on that particular topic with me. Appreciate it a lot.
We're clearly quite on the same page with judgement of current situation and future progress.
Yours, Piotr
Thank you for sharing this to me @crypto.piotr. @julianhorack, I have read about this some time ago and it is good to see you analyse it from different perspectives. I believe that AI will take over most jobs except those that require certain human abilities that AI can't replace like therapists, chiropractors and anything that requires creativity.
Although AI can cause unemployment, there is a possibility that new jobs might arise and there will be more opportunities for people. The job market may evolve but not cease. Therefore I don't think that unemployment will be a massive problem later on.
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Dear @yashny
Thanks for taking the time to share your opinion with us. Appreciate it. Have a great sunday ahead.
Let's hope so. I'm only worried about old people. Not capable of keeping up with changes.
Yours, Piotr
Dear @crypto.piotr, sadly that is true. The older people may find it difficult to adapt to the changes. Thank you and have a great day ahead too =)
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Yes, interesting topic, and one that we've been exploring here on Steemit. In my own personal experience my job has seen AI creeping in taking over some functions to reduce workload. So far I've been able to shift my focus and do other tasks. However, Ayn Rand also plays a role in regards to the effectiveness of AI's increased workload. Hope Steemit can one day beome a source of income for the future workers of the world.
Dear @cyemela
I'm glad you found it interesting :)
Thanks for taking the time to share your opinion with us. Appreciate it. Have a great sunday ahead.
Yours, Piotr
Thanks!
Well I always veer back and forth with hope and apocalyptic visions. In one breath I see how it is certainly possible for all to be fed and to not destroy the planet despite population growing. But the sheer reality of the masses makes me doubt. I too wonder if humanity needs a good culling.
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Haha dark humor there. Apparently we could all survive happily on the planet if the resources were more evenly distributed. Somehow nature has engineered the scenario we find ourselves in. And the goal of nature is life as a whole, not so much the individual's pleasures, so we may have some suffering going on but life will prevail. So one wonders about the quality of this life that keeps evolving... or is it devolving?
A transition will happen and new way of thinking will emerge.
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Yes the only constant is change and hybridization is the norm over time it seems.
It will be hard to tell all the types of jobs that will be taken over by robots and AI, but they will get more powerful in the coming years.
Good point. The AI is programmed to have self-learning, so they could get really brilliant and put us to shame, or turn us into pets, like the lunatics who take over the asylum.
One word.............depressing!
What happens to a celebration of a special birthday for Grandma around the dining room table?
Or little Jack's school play with cute songs that make us teary eyed?
All sounds so bleak and cynical.
Indeed, forgive my dark foreboding. You are a ray of joy. We must preserve the human element, and the personalized relationships. otherwise we all become like robots ourselves, which is not ideal.
We are SO proud to have you as a member of our
FANTABULOUS Power House Creatives family!
uvoted and/or resteemed!
❤ MWAH!!! ❤
#powerhousecreatives
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I think there will be an increase in unemployment.
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@julianhorack, Only time will reveal how everything will move. But one thing is for sure and that is, Virtual Reality, Artificial Intelligence and Over Technological Advancements are not good because it will change the organic and natural life and we will only consume Technological world then.
Hi @julianhorack and @crypto.piotr
It is up to us the current generation to move forward humanity