Yes, you're 101% right—personal social contacts are everything, and not just in Hive.
As for the experiment mentioned in the article, it's for the readers. I believe every mature, rational person can draw certain conclusions. The problem with societies, especially in poorer countries, lies within the society itself, not in the local oligarchs, rulers, or politicians. The same applies here. =)
Here, you can find authors who have achieved success. You mentioned that many opportunities have disappeared, but that's how it always is, everywhere. Some opportunities fade away, but new ones inevitably take their place.
The opportunities are different now, but anyone could earn something on Hive. Some people are natural entrepreneurs or have creative skills. One issue with Hive is that everyone wants to be a content creator, but they won't all find an audience. Being active in communities is also an option. Just being social can earn you something and when you build up some HP you can curate.
A long time ago, I tried to learn how to draw; it was a hobby. The main rule I learned was, "To learn how to draw, you need to draw." This rule is incredibly simple but effective. There is no scenario in which a person diligently works on something for several years and doesn't become a professional in it.
Not everyone finds an audience—no one likes reading texts that are written just for the sake of writing. On the contrary, if the material is interesting and valuable, the number of readers will only grow over time.
I know Telegram communities that buy a lot of advertising, but no one reads them, and I know very few author channels that aren't advertised anywhere but still have a very high-quality audience.