Documenting recent Rebellion Legendary Gold Foil card purchases and reasoning for doing so...
Credit to @clove71
I wrote recently on the subject of Splinterlands and in particular, my position in the game and how that came about, and my plans for the Rebellion card set airdrops. With the month long airdrop event now underway, I have decided to up my chances by purchasing 10 Rebellion Legendary Gold Foil cards.
Before I go any further I'd like to mention that these funds are only available to me because Splinterlands exists. The game allowed me to take some profits a couple of years ago and I'm sort of 'reinvesting at a lower price' - different assets, same game.
Having thought about the possibility of adding Rebellion card packs to my existing wagons, it is hard to see past the obvious difference in cost/CP when compared to GFL cards. 100 (10000 CP) Rebellion packs (less with vouchers / you do get 5 extra if you add vouchers) cost 400,000 DEC, approximately $380 (+$95 for the other 20) at the time of writing, and right now a Rebellion GFL (12500 CP) costs....
It has been possible in the past week to buy 3 GLFs for the price of 100 packs (and easily less than 125 packs) - 37500 CP v 10000 (12500 for 125 packs) CP. There is a chance that the packs could contain lots of GFLs of course, but recent experience is that it is unlikely that there will be any in 100 packs. And unlike previous airdrops where pack purchases (from SL) counted towards the next airdrop, now the only metric is Collection Power.
So 3 of GFLs would provide a 37500 Collection Power boost to my Rebellion deck and the 'War Effort'.
3 GFLs added to a Wagon at the start of airdrop event:
37500 (CP) * 720 (hours) / 100000 (chances) = 270 chances
3 GFLs added to a Wagon now (29-JAN-2024 6pm CET / See screenshot below):
37500 (CP) x 583 hours / 100000 (chances) = 218 chances
3 GFLs would comfortably* (ok maybe the first 2 or 3... ) collect one airdrop card each event and should also be guaranteed a card if starting as of the time above.
I also considered buying Epic Gold Fold cards - 5 of these would provide the same 12500 CP as one GFL. Right now, you can buy 5 of the below for about the same price as the cheapest GFL, but the market generally has 1 GFL slightly cheaper than buying 5 GF Epic cards.
And also, I'd much rather own a GFL!
So my thinking for these rather lavish purchases is that current owners and future owners (those lucky enough to pick up a GFL in a pack) will want to boost airdrop chances and will be less likely to sell, at present anyway.
Less cards on the market means less opportunity for price fluctuations, especially down?
Bull market starting toward the end of the year?
3 GFLs should collect at least 3/4/5 (depending on number of chances per guaranteed card) airdropped cards and looking at the previous airdrops, $10-$15 looks to be the base for non foil with the Gold version of the cards starting from around $150. One should expect to receive 9 standard card, with an outside chance of a GFL.
If the GLFs hold their value, and if the airdropped cards hold a similar value to the previous set, I will feel like these additional purchases have achieved what I wanted them to.
With the potential bonus of finishing above @tarazkp in the leaderboard 😉
I'm speculating for sure and in 9 months things could look different. The bear market could still be holding assets down, or the bull could be close and NFTs may have already started to recover - fingers crossed for the latter.
What do you think? Rash, or potentially a good move?
Good luck all,
Asher
The launch of Lands and Rebellion revived the game as the crypto market turned green. I still have not set my own plan for Splinterlands as a " GameFi " investment (Aside from playing it). Thanks for the insights!
It would be great to learn from your experience on InLEO. There is an event that distributes InLEO Premium. I hope you are interested in.
Peace ✌️
To date I have opened 564 Rebellion packs and found 3 GFLs. I sold 2 of them before airdrop to buy more cards because my focus is currently on increasing the battle strength of my collection.
Right now buying the packs is theoretically a +EV choice because the estimated value is higher than the purchase price on Hive Engine
But your strategy and the logic behind your strategy are also valid and I think good also because with the daily burn mechanism of the Rebellion packs and with the new airdrop system the Rebellion cards should keep their value quite well over time...
Good luck with the airdrop and I wish you the best :)
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 38/48) Liquid rewards.
It seems you've done your research. NFA, but I think it is a good move. Just from the price of GFL versus the packs, it already seems like a good deal. I have heard of people not getting even 1 GFL from 100 packs. So getting 3 for the same price is huge. Add to that the additional airdrop cards, and that makes it even better. Since a lot of whales are the ones who will be getting the airdrop cards, it is even possible for them to control the market eventually, and keep the prices high.
I have heard 800+ and opened 500 before without one! So this is a shortcut in that regard :)
Oh, there you go. You are one of those that's experienced it. If you're going for a maxed GFL anyways, might as well get those airdrop cards along the way. NFA 😄
I think your purchase of the Rebellion Legendary Gold Foil Cards is a good investment, and that's because the Splinterlands lands project is a promising one and soon enough your investments will begin to pay off, maybe as we move closer and closer to the bull market. Thanks for sharing and have a nice day.
I hope so, thank you!
Now get @tarazkp to buy some GFL while he still can
Tagged twice.... could be a trigger :D
100% deliberate from my end at least!
I am asking him to sell his old car for ages:)
I presume those funds would go towards a newer motor!
Barashkukor's looking fancy over there. Nice skills!
Yes I saw one appear on the market for $160 last night and thought that would be snapped up!
Woah! I remember two years ago when people sold Spl. cards for 1-5k. I am sure its price will go up in time.
I bought one, it's not worth the price I paid at present!
Check this battle out :)
https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@abh12345/splinterlands-have-you-seen-an-attack-dealing-out-more-than-32-damage
And, whoops!
https://peakd.com/splinterstats/@abh12345/splinterstats-season-61-report-card
Now that was a total BLAST of the past! A crazy battle and that card at level 4 (not gold I think...if my eyes didn't deceived me:)) at that price! Glorious times!
Not a gold, just the going rate at those times - hopefully they return!
What I see in you is that you are a guru when it comes to investment. You seem to be very smart for you to have invested that much in Rebellion cards
Keep that up!
Thanks for sharing! - @azircon
https://reddit.com/r/NFTGames/comments/1aekf8o/splinterlands_banking_on_rebellion_gold_foil/
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I just started my Splinterland journey so most of this seems pretty strange for me.
Quick question @abh12345
When you delegate your SPS you earn in return, right? How do I go about delegating it? I'll be glad if you can answer this question of mine😃
I think you can earn by delegating, but I stake mine and don't delegage.
13% is nice enough?
Ohhhhh nice, how do I stake mine, please?
On 500 packs I only 1 GLF and 5 Rare gold.
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