We are getting closer and closer to the land launch date. This is very exciting, and will usher in a new age for the SplinterLands.
Many people are 'meh' on this right now in the mav server. If anything, I am happy that everyone doesn't feel like I do - great excitement. Some people say that land is 'not a game'. They would be wrong, but they have the right to think that.
A funny thing happened, and my mind has come around to the idea that common plots with cheap cards will be very attractive, so read on to see how I think this could be an onboarding opportunity if it is marketed correctly.
You can check out my last post about this here, when I was still just running the numbers in my head. But here's the good part, when I ran the numbers:
Now these numbers are really good. Its napkin math of course, but with the really conservative grain price, I think the apr numbers for common land stuff will be very attractive.
There are a few things to break down here.
Does that mean that better assets will have even better aprs?
No, it doesn't. This has to do with the amount of money you have to put up. Expensive assets and expensive plots will produce more overall, but likely much lower apr numbers.
I went through this with dCity. The smallest cities had the highest aprs, even as people were complaining that the 'whales', with way smaller apr numbers, were earning too much.
Minimum marginal investments almost always hve the best aprs in games like these - its just math and I would have to do another whole post to dive in and defend this axiom.
Do we know the price of grain?
No, we really don't. With a pretty conservative 0.1 DEC per grain, which it could get to over several months, the aprs are still really good at today's prices though. I think there is some reason that the fall of the price of grain could be slower than most anticipate. Mainly - a lot of grain will be needed.
First of all, every base PP in the game will consume 0.01 grain per hour. And PP (although with bonuses) will only produce 0.02 grain per hour, minus a 10% tax it will be 0.018 grain per hour. So we can do a simple calculation of 0.01/0.018 and get that 55.5% of PP will be needed to produce grain - just to keep up.
Yes there are bonuses, but the more bonuses people put on grain plots, the less they will be able to put on SPS and research plots, the less they will be able to put on castle and keep plots.
Plus, we will soon see a DEC:GRAIN LP, which will need to be filled up. So even if we see 60 or 70% of the PP producing grain, it doesn't necessarily mean that that excess will only be driving the price down, it will be filling up the LP (which depending on how it is entered, may drive the price down in some cases, just to be complete).
So what's the onboarding plan?
To me, it seems like a really fun way to test out the ecosystem, for someone that has never heard of Splinterlands before, to come in and spend a few bucks - 30 dollars for a common plot, 20 dollars on cards (maxxed rare CL reward cards in my example above, on the right terrain), and 50 dollars on staked DEC - and look to earn between 40 and 200 percent APR.
At such a time when you don't want to play anymore, you can immediately unstake DEC, sell the plot and sell (or rent) the cards.
This is a viable DeFi game! Nothing is really locked up. Buying cards near the burn price gives even more assurance that your assets will retain the value. A whitepaper for land 2.0 gives more of the same. Immediate unstaking of DEC, a product-backed stable coin - seems to be an easy sell.
Who can package this idea up in order to promote? @goldmatters ? Perhaps @bulldog1205 ? Or maybe you think you could use this idea to sell your spreadsheet happy friends on the idea of testing out Splinterlands for a price that is not that far away from another new 'game', which often sell for 60 or 70 dollars nowadays.
I am not a great saleman, I am a numbers guy. Here are the numbers - let's find the right salesman.
And with that said -
What are the risks?
These APR numbers are heavily based on the current low price of common plots and basic cards. If these things go up a lot in price, which they might at some point, it will be less attractive and risky for new players to get in. So these numbers are available now, and to me, it would make a lot of sense to tell people outside the Splinterlands ecosystem about it, aligned with the start of land this Tuesday.
What do you think? Let me know below.
Praetoria is live! In case you are not already working your land consider this a reminder. I didn't have much DEC with me. This is the best I could do at the moment. I have a rare Occupied Plot Mining SPS which will help with the lack of DEC after a quick swap.
Best of Luck!
!PIZZA
!LUV
!CTP
Fantastic! Working hard right now - I sent you an invite on discord to our Region channel if you are interested - but its not required. All conversations about this topic on HIVE get upvoted by me so maybe better to talk here 😅
I rarely use discord for anything. Privacy concerns are one of the main reasons. My distaste towards Big Tech products have only grown as I use better tools. I will occasionally show up. Grain production is going smoothly. I have started unstaking 50% of my SPS for Land. I think it will be worth the risk.
Really good piece, I always appreciate that you share stuff like this. I'm going to return the favor. This is on the surface a talk about money, but it includes Mathew Crawford, who I really enjoy for his 'theorizing out loud' about mindwar; pay attention to how he deals with 'China' and the east, piratization and technological transfers.
This is not taking anything away from your video - we are indeed being harvested - but just an alternative perspective on the Chinese boogeyman.
https://rumble.com/v3yekq7-rte-discussions-40-war-and-currencies-fiat-vs-sound-money.html
I watched the video in full. It was definitely interesting. Thank you for sharing it. China has been proactively engaging in IP theft. At the same time they are pushing education towards STEM in an unhealthy way while USA and the aligned nations are making their blunders.
One complain I have about the speakers is that they see class instead of the individuals. For an example, those who got rich during the development of USA did not go to East to enjoy a repeat. The Eastern had their own billionaires. Having a view that see class blinds people to individuals in action and only end up seeing aggregates.
As for BTC, I am more of a believer in the "Bitcoin Lab Leak Theory" because I have seen enough bureaucracy and chaos from government and Military Industrial Complex.
It was a pleasure to hear Douglas Engelbart name dropped. More people needs to learn about him. I only learned about him very recently.
https://inleo.io/@vimukthi/did-you-know-about-online-system-the-mother-of-all-demos
https://inleo.io/@vimukthi/logseq-obsidian-will-transform-your-life-a-new-paradigm-in-managing-digital-information
The idea of product backed fiat is really not a fiat. HIVE, KOIN etc. are product backed fiat as per my understanding and the term itself sounds like an oxymoron. Backing a cryptocurrency with a service is basically a digital commodity. I think Mathew Crawford needs to learn to sell his ideas properly. He might be alienating people who would have been onboard with his ideas. He cannot get his foot in the door because he is using terms that do not even fully fit the thing he is describing.
Thank you! I will find some time to watch it.
I like your math. The only thing you forgot was the cost/time to clear the plot.
ahhh interesting point you are right. 150 Time Crystals or 10 days 8 hours of grain.
I think some of the community excitement for land fizzled out about one year ago lol. In any case, I too am excited to see what comes of this. I have some plots but not sure if I will participate in land or not. By the sounds of things we might see an uptick in rentals, which is what I will focus on if that is the case. Grinding SPL for X years has me in sit back and watch mode. What we really need is an influx of players that only a fun game with a friendly user-face can bring that or another bull run that makes people take note of potential earning value.
I hope that Land renting becomes a thing in the future.
based on my calculations, land is only 30% of the set up needed. I wonder how they will work out the splits.
Buen post muy interesante aunque muy optimista. La idea de poder rentar una tierra seria bueno para el juego. Yo solo soy un humilde jugador de plata 3, es mas ayer me salio una legendaria en los cofres.
Yo siempre quiero lo mejor para #hive, ojala que la idea de quitar la piscina de liquidez se quede solo en eso, mataria hive.
Bendiciones...
Yo soy proponente de los LPs, me gusta mucho la tecnologia y su potencial. No sé porque alguien pensaría que quitar uno sería un avance.
I do like the idea and the though process for onboarding more people. Honestly if I could delegate out land to someone I'd be up for that on my common plots since I'd still be earning from the keep. Idk why some people are blah to it. Honestly I love this new version of the game over playing with card lol
Me too! This is much more my style of gameplay.
I like the math! I am really hopeful it works out this way! These days really cheap cards could use the extra utility.
Yea, I do agree that if there was going to be another decent opportunity to jump aboard the splinterland bus then this would be that time.
I was noticing alot of cards are starting to go back up in price so who really knows how much longer the low prices will last.
It could be like Delwyn, the magic dragon summoner card where one day it was around 1 cent and then poof all of a sudden within no time it is 1.00, and right now to buy one of that card is over just about $3.
I think it sounds like a decent idea to onboard people. Just wondering, won't the people staking the items onto splinterland need card assets? I think it would require a decent amount of starting capital because you can't used rented cards on it right?
I have considered those costs into my calculations.
Oh, I must of missed it because the image didn't load fast enough last night. It does look like it could be profitable but the price of grain seems to be issue. Then the issue is whether or not grain will be an inflationary or not. After all, if more grain is being produced than consumed, then the prices won't stay as high.
The calculation is based on a 90% fall of grain price, I think thats pretty conservative.
Great post!, I find this perspective very interesting, thank you
Promoting on Twitter.
Just like that the game as it is will become much more interesting after the land gameplay and we will see people's interest coming back but if we make a small mistake and move the date forward then people will be very upset.
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@vimukthi(2/5) tipped @ecoinstant