SPS 500% at least (call me crazy)
I personally expect far bigger gains for SPS. You are being very conservative IMHO.
It might very well be that your "whales" overpay by a factor of 5x-10x to get into the Pre-Sale
There are perks that are coming with the extra investment. Getting 6 Doctor Blight Cards and additional airdrops from Chaos Legion Presale is something I am happy looking back.
- The Cheapest Alpha Rare Card is $1.60
- The Cheapest Alpha Common Card is $0.70
That leads to minimum $4.40 value for $2 Alpha Packs. Even if I opened the packs now in the past I was forced to HODL Packs because I didn't want to open them without Potions), I could recover the losses through future price appreciation. As a player, I would be using some of these Cards in the game. The rest I can rent to earn some passive DEC.
Even in the case SPS ends up outperform Presale, it could still be treated as a form of diversification which could come in handy. For an example, I could sell a Card at an emergency faster than SPS which I have to wait 7 days for.
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Let's not go another two corners, you've showcased your point rather sufficiently.
It's only a couple of days left now, let's wait and see.