I'm thinking that the Kelya wins out here, and it comes down to River Nymph and Serpent of Eld, that magic cuts through Living Lava, and Serpent dodges 90% of the opponent's damage.
Also Merdaali is healing so the magic damage is negated each turn: Tarsa only wins if Living Lava AND Spider land their attacks EACH turn.
Poison plays a factor, but I think the heal and the cleanse matter more.
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