Before I got into trading Cryptos and Stocks I cut my teeth betting on Sports. It started out as a bit of a hobby. As a typical Aussie bloke working in an office there was always plenty of talk at the proverbial water-cooler about sports. I’ve always enjoyed having a bit of a flutter, but there was a point in time when I realised that I had what is commonly known as an “Edge” which is a betting term for discovering an advantage in a betting market when the bookmakers get the prices wrong.
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When I left the office jobs behind I became a full-time sports analyst and professional punter. It was a roller-coaster ride and at times a lot of fun….other times quite stressful. But what this experience taught me all about was managing risk. I learnt how to do proper analysis, identify when a market is wrong or biased and how to trade on sentiment. All of these basic skills and experience I have developed over years now and they have served me well now that I have forayed into the biggest gambling arenas of the world – The stock market and the crypto market.
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Betting on sports professionally can be a tough gig to scale up. Bookmakers can be very welcoming up front, but as soon as they realise you are a “Sharp” (another betting term for someone who knows what they’re doing) they are pretty quick to limit your stakes or shut down your account. For them it’s not about getting market prices right, it’s about balancing bets and getting winners off the books to guarantee themselves a profit. Not exactly ethical, but they still look pretty saintly compared to some of the insider banksters in the stock market or the outright scammers in the crypto market.
Now that I’m taking a bit of a break from trading Cryptos I’m getting back to my roots a bit over the December period. One of my favourite sports to bet on during the Aussie Summer is the Big Bash T20 cricket league. It’s one of those tournaments where a bit of homework and foresight can really give a good edge over the market, which typically shows a lot of “Recency Bias” from previous years and previous form.
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This year I’ve broken up the tournament into 3 distinct phases, which is not dissimilar to previous years. The first phase takes us through to mid-January which is where the Ashes Test matches are being played. During this phase, form lines are very fluid so backing the underdog can be a good option and it is worth taking note of the players in the Aussie test team who are unavailable but likely to join the tournament later on.
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The second phase is where the Ashes is over but the One Day International series is on. There are always a fair number of short-format players who start playing in the Big Bash but then are yanked out of the tournament half-way through, so form lines and team sheets again can change quite substantially. This year there are a few English players in the Big Bash who may also get yanked at this stage.
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The third phase is when the ODIs have finished but BEFORE the international T20s are played between Australia and England. The timing of this gap in the short formats coincides this year with the Big Bash Finals and I can only imagine that the selectors are hoping to have all international players available for the Big Bash finals. They can then pick the Australian T20 side from the stars of the Big Bash tournament – including the finals (well it makes sense to me and that’s what I’d do in their shoes)
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So it is important to do the homework and look at the schedules, look at the rosters, check the overseas player availabilities, any injuries and clashes to anticipate team changes. Once you’ve done all this then you can start to get a feel for the big picture of how the tournament might unfold. Without further ado, I’ll give you a rundown of my Best Bet for the Big Bash this year.
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Each team is allowed to field 2 overseas players. West Indian Dwayne Bravo has been a regular of the Renegades for years now and is an experienced T20 specialist all-rounder. He has over 200 wickets and over 3000 runs in the T20 format. This year he is joined by fellow West Indian Keiron Pollard who is another big-hitting all-rounder who has become a bit of a T20 specialist. If these guys stay fit they will be 2 of the best international all-rounders in the comp. They also have powerful Sri Lankan all-rounder Thisara Perera in the wings who will be available after finishing up the series in India.
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This is where the big value comes from. They pick up Kane Richardson, who represents Australia. While he may be lost when the ODIs start he is one of Australias best short format bowlers. Add in Brad Hodge, an ever-green T20 veteran batsman who has done it all and travelled the world playing T20 in recent years. Tim Ludeman comes in as a Keeper-Batsman who has often opened for Adelaide with a 6-hitting spree. Jon Holland adds depth to the spin department and Joe Mennie comes across from the Sydney 6ers as another player who was good enough to play test cricket for Australia. These signings are all quality additions and give the Renegades a lot of experience and depth.
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They haven’t lost much talent from last year and are building on a solid core. Aaron Finch captains again and matures more every year. Cameron White is still there too alongside Tom Cooper, all of whom can clear the boundary rope with ease when firing. Crowd favourite Brad Hogg returns again and is always amongst the wickets with his wrong-un. Chris Tremain has been bowling solidly for Victoria and Nathan Rimmington is still on the books too along with former Australian ODI spinner Xavier Doherty. It all adds up to a very experienced and deep line-up.
They are currently in the 2nd line of betting and I am only backing them to make the finals. T20 is a random game and once the finals start anything can happen. The competition is extended this year so I need 5 wins from 10 games with a decently positive Net Run Rate. Playing the Futures market here is a good way to take the variation out of the randomness of the format and I will look to hedge them to cover my stake if they get really short in the betting (under 1.10) at any stage.
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Nice, comprehensive analysis.
One of the first things I do while analysing T20 tournaments is to look at teams' bowling line-ups with the Perth Scorchers having set the template on how to go the distance in such tournaments by playing five good, wicket-taking bowlers in the XI. And it's no different this time with the likes of Behrendorff, Coulter-Nile, Johnson, Tye and Willey in the squad.
That said, bet365's offer of $4.5 for the Scorchers to win the title is shorter than I hoped. More interested in Brisbane Heat at $6.5, especially if Lynn is fit and with McCullum leading the way - very interested in watching Shadab Khan on Aussie pitches.
I totally agree. The pace attack of the Scorchers will be very tough to overcome, especially at home. They only have 1 international and look weaker in the spin department though. I also have both Marsh boys unavailable in Phase 1 so their batting might be soft.
I really like Brisbane though. They were almost my pick this year and I was on them to make the finals last year. Reckon they could go one better this year if the bash brothers stay together. Haven't seen much of Khan, he could be the wild card.
Brisbane are paying $7 with the NSW TAB and they will take a decent sized bet.
I wonder if Langer thought of missing both Marshes before the Ashes began - both were long odds to make the squad and now both should retain their place for the remaining two Tests. Agreed, will be interesting to watch how he overcomes their absence.
They lose Bancroft too. But they are likely to get him and Shaun Marsh back once the tests are over so I could see them starting slow and making a late charge.
Good idea then to let their odds drift for a bit and then put money on them to go the distance later in the tournament.
Mate, that's a great run down.... but as you say, you DO need to have the knowledge and experience to do well at it.
A lot of people don't realise the effort it takes to gain this sort of knowledge!
A Mate of mine was an SP Bookie in Blacktown back in the 80's. Everybody just thought he sat in the Pub taking bets.... nobody realised how much time and research it took to really understand how it worked.
Based on all of that, I stay well away from it all....Lol.
Thanks @plumey. Like anything it just takes time to build up knowledge and experience. Anyone could do it.
Back in the 80s I think bookies put more effort into their pricing. Nowadays in the information age with online betting a lot of them just let the TAB do the hard work and just copy their starting odds, then just adjust prices according to the bets that come in. Not so much skill in setting markets these days I think.
Very true. It is a sign of the times I suppose.
Gambling its very addictive things...if u entered in dis u cnt ignore dis...its totally depend upon ur luck.. I mostly played in t20 from a little amount
Sure there is luck involved, but there is luck involved in any kind of investing. If you get the right price and know when (and how) to hedge then you can be consistently successful in the long run.
This is a very detailed post about cricket players, bugged. I did get to catch some of the Ashes last week, woo!
This game all about the players. Studying them used to be my bread and butter.
Glad to hear you caught some of the Ashes and caught a proper taste of home. We've won it now and a good chance for us to complete another 5-0 whitewash if the weather doesn't intervene! :)
Yeah that's true, you make a good point about the players.
I have plans to attend the next Australian Ashes. Was discussing with my mates who I went to the cricket with in July in London. It's their plan, so it's now mine too.
Holy crap this is cool. Good luck! Keep us posted.
Thanks man! I might do an update or two over the course of the tournament. We will see.
Renegades all the way.... $1.70 - if I put $1 in cyptos would it go up by 70% by the end of the season (about 6 weeks away) - well maybe, but then again....
This is why I see these markets so similarly. Whether you put $1 in Cryptos or the Renegades it could be worth zero or easily be up 70% in 6 weeks.
I've really never been a person to bet on things I guess to everyone there own. I will just hold on to my money its way to risky to bet thanks for your insightful article
It's a lot safer than putting money into some cryptos right now, but each to their own. I understand and respect your risk aversion.
Used to bet football in the states religiously, until I gave it up religiously.
a very good post among my other friends. hopefully useful for other steemit friends. thanks for your post
Great tips. I had better get my my draftstars team in for the game tonight.
Hope you had Dwayne Bravo last night. Good start by the Renegades!
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