Iron Bowl Preview

If you find yourself wearing crimson and white or orange and blue there is no need to convince you that the Iron Bowl is the greatest rivalry in College Football. However, if you need to be convinced then look no further than November 25, 2017 at 2:30 p.m. in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Nick Saban and Gus Malzahn will tell you that it is too early to start discussing the Ironn Bowl, but is it really ever too early to discuss this game?

There is a possibility that once again an undefeated team ranked No. 1 in the country who has dismantled several opponents over the course of this season could walk away from this game having lost everything. 11-1 and that one loss coming in the Iron Bowl to your biggest rival means no SEC Championship game, and likely missing out on the College Football Playoffs. No fan, player, or coaching staff member will be happy with a 12-1 season regardless of an appearance in a major bowl game.

On the other sidelines you have a team who just a week ago was staring a 4 loss regular season in the face which would have likely led to the firing of their head coach. Four straight years of losing to both Georgia and Alabama in November coupled with the stepping down of the Athletic Director who hired said coach is not the recipe for sticking around on the Plains. Auburn has now reeled off two big wins against Texas A&M and the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs to set the stage for yet another winner take all Iron Bowl.

Going into the season Alabama had possibly the most loaded roster on paper in the entire Nick Saban era. On offense the Tide returned the SEC player of the Year in Jalen Hurts, an entire car full of running backs that could be playing on Sundays soon, the best wide receiver in the country as rated by draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. and a plethora of 5-star athletes fighting for playing time and touches. On the defensive side they had lost tons of talent including several 1st round draft picks, but were returning a 2-deep at linebacker that any team in the country would dream about. One of the keys to Alabama's run during Saban's tenure has been the ability to avoid injuries throughout the course of the season, but this time the injury bug appeared in the season opener. Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis were potentially lost for the season, and Rashaan Evans and Anfernee Jeenings were both banged up against the Seminoles. The loss of these linebackers didn't seem to matter as Alabama reeled off 59-0, 66-3, and 45-7 vicories over Vanderbuilt, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. However, against LSU the injuries began to take their tole. Shaun Dion Hamilton who suffered a season ending injury against Florida in the SEC Championship game last December had yet another devastating injury. I personally watched from about 40 rows up in Bryant Denny Stadium as he threw his helmet, and immediately knew that he knew it was a serious injury. It didn't look like much at first, but if you have are an avid sports fan you know that the player will let you know the level of his injury in the way he reacts. The loss of Hamilton was a huge blow to the Tide defense. He was the signal caller, his experience and athleticism allowed those around him to play fast because they could trust him to cover for their mistakes. While he is not rated as highly as past Alabama linebackers such as Reuben Foster, Reggie Ragland, or Donta Hightower, his presence on this already depleted Alabama linebacker roster is missed more than any injured Alabama player I can remember since former receiver Tyrone Prothro. It was extremely evident this past Saturday against Mississippi State. Give credit to Dan Mullan and the Bulldogs coaching staff, their game plan was to slow the pace of the game down and grind out time of possession to wear down the Tide defense, and they executed it well. However, time and time again Alabama found itself in 3rd and long situations where if you make a play you get off the field and it seemed like every time Nick Fitzgerald found an opening in the Alabama coverage and picked up the first down to extend the drive. The most alarming part was the way the Bulldogs were able to move the ball on the ground. Alabama is known for stuffing the run, and for two consecutive weeks they have allowed over 150 yards rushing. I am not going to look it up, but I would be surprised to see too many times where an Alabama defense coached by Nick Saban has given up over 150 yards on the ground in consecutive games.

Meanwhile, earlier in the day Kerryon Johnson had methodically rushed for 167 yards on 32 carries. While Alabama has about 5 running backs on their roster who could be 1,000 yard rusher given the workload, Auburn may have the best running back on the field in the 2017 Iron Bowl. Johnson runs with a style similar to L'aveon Bell of the Pittsburg Steelers. He is a patient runner who allows his lineman to set their blocks and then he has the vision to recognize the hole allowing him to hit it hard and fast. He is also shifty. On one run against Georgia he turned what should have been a 2-yard loss into about a 6-yard gain simply by being patient and shifting to the right on two jump cuts. Without Kam Pettway to take some of the load off of Johnson I would expect nothing less than a 35 carry performance from him. If he rushes for over 150 yards and Auburn wins then you will hear plenty of Kerryon for Heisman talk. This will be a key matchup in this years Iron Bowl. Will Alabama be able to rebound from two lack luster performances stopping the run against arguably the best run game in the conference?

Kevin Steele vs Bryan Daboll

Auburn's defense looks rock solid under second year Defensive Coordinator Kevin Steele. After the first drive of the game, Georgia was never able to get the run game going against Steele and the Tigers defense. Nick Chubb and Sonny Michel entered the contest looking like one of the best running back duos in college football and the Tiger defense completely shut them down. Without help from the run game Freshman Jake Fromm was unable to do much other than a few throws where his receivers went up and made spectacular grabs. There will be plenty of familiarity between Saban and Steele as he takes on his former Head Coach. However, the matchup between Steele and Brian Daboll could be the deciding factor in this game. In his first year as the Offensive Coordinator at Alabama, Daboll has looked very comfortable calling the shots. The growth of Sophomore Quarterback Jalen Hurts under his new OC looked very evident this past week against Miss. St. In a game where the defense couldn't seem to get off the field, Daboll and Hurts dialed up several key drives. None more important than the final drive which led to a go ahead touchdown on a slant pattern from Hurts to freshman Devonta Smith. Just before that play Hurts had hit Calvin Ridley on the same slant from the opposite side of the field to set up the scoring play. This is the difference in the Offense under Daboll. You wont find Daboll with his arms extended showing that he knows the play is about to result in a touchdown like his predecessor Lane Kiffin. Groomed by Bill Bellicheck and Josh McDaniels, Daboll has done an excellent job of spreading the ball around and going with the hot hand. It will be interesting to see which running back get the bulk of the carries in this years Iron Bowl. You know who Auburn's horse will be, but with the Tide, Damien Harriss, Bo Scarborough, or Josh Jacobs could all see significant playing time. The lesser known Jacobs actually sparked the Tide this past weekend. While he is the more versatile back, Scarborough has been used more often against strong defenses such as the one the Tide will face in Jordan Hair. Containing Jeff Holland will be a task for the Alabama o-line. With a pass rusher like Holland, Steele may try to exploit some miss matches within the Tide offensive line.

History

Did you know that Saban has never beaten a 9-win Auburn football team? In ten games at Alabama Saban has compiled a 7-3 record against Auburn, however, all 3 of Auburns wins have come when Auburn entered the Iron Bowl with 9 or more wins. The first year under Tommy Tubberville, the National Championship season with Cam, and the kick six season. You also have to go back to a matchup between Dennis Franchione and Tommy Tubberville to find the last time that Alabama defeated Auburn in a season in which Auburn had defeated Georgia. While Alabama has been the more consistently dominant team during Saban's tenure, reaching #1 in the AP poll for at least one week in every season since his first, Auburn has been the more opportunistic team during their "good" seasons. As I mentioned before, a 9 win Auburn team is undefeated against Saban, and after the Tigers (8-2) take care of Louisiana Monroe this Saturday they will have that 9 wins. This Iron Bowl is shaping up to be one that will be remembered by terminology, "The Drive" (2009), "Punt Bama Punt" (1972) "Wrong way, Bo" (1984), and of course the "Kick Six" (2013).

Keys to an Auburn victory

The biggest question to me is how will Alabama's defense be able to hold up against the run. Kerryon Johnson will be licking his chops while watching film of Dylan Moses and Keith Holcombe. Outside of Rashaan Evans, Alabama does not have the type of linebackers that fly to the football the way they have in years past. I believe they will be forced to bring Minkah Fitzpatrick and/or Tony Brown into the box for much of the game. This will open up the secondary and give Jarrett Stidham the opportunity for some deep balls. Will Hasting's will have a chance to make a difference in this game. There are rumors that the former walk on for Auburn has been clocked at 4.28 in the 40 yard dash. Whether that is true or not he certainly has the speed to get a step on Bama's secondary, especially in situations where there is an extra safety in the box to defend the run. The ball also has to find him, and that will be another area to watch in this game. In Auburn's two losses this year Jarrett Stidham has been sacked a lot. The sacks are one thing, but I have also noticed that he is a completely different quarterback under pressure. If Stidham has time to throw he might be one of the most accurate passers in the country, but if Alabama can get pressure on him it might be a long day for the Auburn signal caller. As do many SEC games this may come down to the battle in the trenches. Auburn has been forced to shuffle their o-line around quite a bit this season. If Auburn's o-line can give Stidham enough time to complete enough passes to open up the run game for Johnson then Auburn should be able to move the ball quite effectively. Auburn will be watching plenty of film from the Clemson and Mississipi State games. These two games show the game plan for beating Alabama. Keeping the Tide defense on the field and winning time of possession is how you beat Alabama. Clemson ran 99 plays against Alabama in the National Championship game. Auburn loves to go up-tempo and if they can run the ball effectively on first and second down to set up third and short opportunities for Johnson the they will be able to keep the chains moving and wear down the already depleted Bama defense. Third and long will be key in this game. In both games mentioned Alabama has struggled to get off the field on third down. While I like Auburns chances on third and short I will be paying close attention to who wins the third and long battles. Mississippi State who usually goes up-tempo actually slowed the game down against Alabama. They were able to be effective by continually keeping drives alive after facing third and long. This is where Stidham and the Auburn o-line will have to step up. If Auburn is able to keep drives alive and convert third down opportunities then the Bama defense will begin to wear down. Deshaun Watson and Nick Fitzgerald were able to use both their feet and their arms to pick up tough third downs. This will be a true test for Stidham. You never know how a quarterback will play in games of this magnitude. Against Georgia he played loose and with confidence. He made an excellent down field throw to give Auburn a huge touchdown at the end of the second quarter, but perhaps more impressive was his ability to hit his check down receivers, two of which led to touchdowns for Auburn. I expect he will have the opportunity for a couple deep balls throughout the game, but more important will be his ability to stay in the pocket and work through his progressions to find outlet passes. Even without the deep ball Stidham can win this game for Auburn by making just enough plays to keep drives alive and keeping Alabama's offense on the sideline. Need I forget Auburn's biggest weapon, Daniel Carlson. Against Georgia Auburn stalled out inside Bulldog territory several times in the first half against Georgia. However, the ability to trot out Carlson for 50+ yard field goals allowed Auburn to put points on the board and I expect this will be the case in the Iron Bowl as well. While Carlson is almost automatic at times, he has had a couple kicks blocked this season. While that may not necessarily be his fault, it is worth keeping an eye on in this game. I assure you that it has caught the eye of Alabama coaches in the film room and I would expect to see them trying to exploit that in this game.

Keys to an Alabama victory

Try and take the crowd out of the game with some long drives and three and outs on defense. The cow bells and crowd noise they faced against Mississippi State were one thing, but Jordan-Hare can be deafening, and no team feeds off of their crowd more than the Auburn Tigers. This Alabama defense isn't the shutdown D that the Tide can usually rely on, so it will be up to Daboll to come up with a game plan that limits Auburn's opportunities. Alabama has shown the ability to score quick on several occasions this year. One takeaway from Auburn's performance against Georgia that Alabama can exploit is down field opportunities. Jake Fromm had two situations where a receiver had badly beaten the Tiger secondary and he was unable to complete what could have been two easy touchdowns. One of the biggest steps forward for Jalen Hurts has been his ability to complete downfield passes. WIth a weapon like Calvin Ridley I would expect this to be available if the Tide needs a big play on offense. Same as Auburn, Alabama's key to victory will be sustaining lengthy drives. The ability to score on big plays is nice, but Hurts will need to sustain drives and give his defense some rest. Alabama will be without left guard Ross Pierschbacher, which could be a factor, but they do have a stable of running backs at their disposal. The question is, which running back will get hot? Dameon Harris looked phenomenal during the first half of the season, but same as last year he hasn't looked as explosive against better defenses in the later part of the year. Bo Scarbrough could be a weapon if he runs the way he has shown capable in the Tide's bigger games. That said, look for Josh Jacobs to be the x-factor for Alabama's offense in this game. He is as healthy as he has been in two seasons at Alabama, and he sparked the Tide with several tough runs against Mississippi State. Jacobs is also the best receiver out of the backfield for Alabama, and against Kevin Steele's defense I would expect Daboll to try and get the running backs involved in the passing game to open up other opportunities. Hurts ability to make plays with his feet will almost certainly be a factor in the outcome of this game. Against Georgia, Auburn was able to stop the run and that allowed them to exploit Jake Fromm fairly easily. It will be a much different test against a quarterback of Hurts caliber who has the ability to take off when the pocket breaks down and pick up first downs that can be very deflating for a defense. Hurts will need to get Ridley, and the rest of the Tide receiving corps involved, but his ability to keep drives alive with his feet could be the key to victory for Alabama. On defense Saban and DC Jeremy Pruitt will need to come up with a game plan to offset the absence of all their injured linebackers. As mentioned earlier expect to see Fitzpatrick and Brown in the box. I wouldn't be surprised if Alabama uses a heavy dose of the nickel package with one of the two aforementioned players playing somewhat of a hybrid position to help with the run and sink into coverage, as well as blitzes. With Keith Holcomb and Dylan Moses in the middle of the defense against Mississippi State Alabama looked slow and unable to attack the ball carrier. With the size and speed that Fitzpatrick and Brown possess I believe that they will have to play inside to hep contain the Auburn run game. They also possess the lateral quickness to defend against the jet sweeps that Malzhaln so regularly uses. Rumors out of Tuscaloosa are that Christian Miller may be available to return for the Iron Bowl, and possibly Terrell Lewis as well. I believe you still have to game plan as though the two are unavailable, because even if they play, there is no amount of practice that gets you ready to jump into an atmosphere like the Iron Bowl. If nothing else it is at least an extra body or two for depth. Against Georgia Auburn was able to get outside the defense on several occasions opening up the middle for their run game. Holcomb and Moses will be exploited on these types of plays. Alabama will also be forced to blitz in this game. As mentioned earlier, Stidham can look shaky when under pressure. If Alabama can get pressure with their front four they will be in great shape, but if not, expect Pruitt to dial up the blitz and try to steal a few big plays for the Bama defense. If Alabama can put Auburn into 3rd and long situations and get off the field on 3rd down it will limit Kerryon Johnson's impact on the game.

Could we see a rematch?

Just for fun let's discuss how the possible outcome could impact the College Football Playoffs. If Alabama wins the they are almost a lock for the playoffs even with a loss in the SEC Championship game, but to be safe they would need to take care of business against Georgia. If Auburn wins and then defeats Georgia in the Sec Championship game then they are a lock for the playoffs as well. Even with two losses there is no way you keep Auburn out of the playoffs as SEC Champs who defeated two #1 ranked teams and beat Georgia twice. If Alabama were to lose, they would need help, but it is not out of the picture for them to reach the playoffs. They would need either TCU to beat Oklahoma or Miami to beat Clemson and for Wisconsin to lose to either Michigan or Ohio State. I don't think anyone wants to see an Alabama versus Auburn rematch in the playoffs or for the National Championship, but it would certainly make for an exciting finish to the season.