Unfortunately, sofascore doesn't give data on clearing handicaps by home and away or the sample size. I'm not too familiar with US sports other than basketball and my impression was that the odds on handicaps are a lot better compared to just the one on Win/Lose.
Thanks for the fivethirtyeight links - i didn't know they did sports analysis as well. Looking forward to the results from your test, if you decide to do a post about it.