With the start of Football season, a couple thoughts to keep in mind for the sports investors(aka gamblers) out there.
Bankroll Management
I can not stress this enough. No matter how often you win, or how often you lose, without proper bankroll management I can promise you, you will lose your bankroll. This leads to chasing, which leads to problems. I have been there, done that, and have a couple of the T-Shirts. With 30 years of gambling experience, this is the number one thing to master.
There are numerous systems out there, but my personal recommendation is never more than 1% of your roll on any single outcome. If you are in fact a winning better, with the slightest of edges against the house, this should prevent you from going broke. I personally do not adjust my unit, unless I hit a major downturn, or a major upturn in roll. So if you want to bet $100 a game, this means you should have $10,000 set aside for gambling. When you hit $15,000, increase your wager if you want to $150. If it drops back to $10,000, readjust back to $100.
I am personally not a fan of varying unit size, unless you have a model that can reliably predict your advantage over the house. Then and only then, would a 1/4 Kelly Criterion be acceptable to maximize profits or minimize losses.
Let me say it again, do not bet too much, it will only lead to a "Bad Beat" and the loss of your roll.
Do not buy picks
Buying picks from touts is a scam. No if's, and's, or but's about it. They are ripoff artists. I will not say 100%, because there may be sincere ones out there. But if they are as good as the tout themselves, then they have no incentive whatsoever to sell there picks. They are car salesman who sell lemons.
A lot of people will try to lure you in with free picks, and I am sure Steemit will attract plenty of touts as it is a new market, and they have devoured Twitter and Facebook.
There are a few forums that I visit that have plenty of excellent cappers that have provably winning records over years. And this is available for free. Out of the hundreds of cappers I have tracked over the years on various forums, only a handful, well almost two handfuls, have been consistently profitable.
Information is King
And speaking of forums, which this sort of is, remember that some people consistently lose also. And this information is just as valuable, and more plentiful in numbers, than following a winner. Fading a consistent loser is just as profitable as following a consistent winner.
But you have to do your homework, and track hundreds of plays by each capper to determine there win rate. It is not easy work, and takes plenty of time.
Key injury, beat the breaking news before books take game off the board. Suspension looming for some college player that no one yet knows about but you(and a few rumor crazy fans) who surf the local schools forum for rumors. Its a puzzle to put together from all the tidbits of rumors you get off twitter.
Bargain Hunt for Lines
This is what can turn a 50-50 capper into a winner, squeaking out a profit. Why pay more for less. Have multiple outs with different books. Have reduced juice books.
Tonights Ohio State game is an example, 5dimes has Ohio State -20.5 -106, while Nitrogen Sports at the same time had them -20.5 -111. This is a 1.2% difference in win rate needed to break even. If you were a break even sports bettor, who wagered on 100 football games a year, at $100 a game, this is over $100 more a season in profit, all for spending a couple minutes checking different lines and having more than one out. And there are better opportunities out there than that every day, multiple times a day.
Last of All, HAVE FUN!!!
Chances are you will not make a living from gambling, gamble responsibly, and enjoy the games and complain about the bad beats, does not get much better than that.
hello
i followed you
follow me back and i will be interested to upvote your posts
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