NHL Daily Fantasy - Jan, 7th, 2018 picks and analysis

in #sports7 years ago (edited)

If you're familiar with daily fantasy sports, I'm sure you know the drill. However, if you haven't played before, here's a quick rundown. The basic idea is to select a team from that day's slate of games, and they have to fit under a salary cap that's usually specific to each site. Each day it starts over so you're drafting a new team from scratch - to me it's much more engaging than the usual season long league.

For these guides I'll be using cryptofantasysports.com (CFS) as a guide for salaries and scoring, though the salaries also fit with DraftKings (DK). I used to play hockey on both DK and FanDuel (FD), however I've moved to CFS for a few reasons. First and foremost, the rake on CFS is 2.5% for Head to Head matches, and 5% for guaranteed tournaments. Compare this to DK at 10% for H2H, and 17.6% for most guaranteed tournaments and you'll see very quickly how this can affect your bottom line bankroll if you're playing every day like myself and many others.

Another huge benefit to CFS over the other sites I've used is the ability to fund your account in a variety of ways. The site works using No Limit Coin (NLC2), which has been specifically designed for use in these applications. You can purchase NLC2 either on exchanges such as YoBit and Cryptopia, or many will opt to buy directly from the website using Visa/MC ($500 weekly limit), or with Bitcoin. If you're like me and just want to poke around before depositing, they offer 10 free coins to anyone who signs up. Aside from that, they offer a free contest every day that you can actually win real money from.

There's multiple strategies that can be used to build successful lineups, which I'll go over eventually in these guides. No matter how you build your lineup, I'll share individual picks that can fit into just about any strategy. It can be a grind to research such a large player pool EVERY DAY, so the idea here is to cherry pick some of the best plays of the day and save you some time (to work on your NBA lineups, of course).

Since today is Sunday, games start at 1PM Eastern Time today, make sure to get your lineups in before then!

Center

Top Tier ($6500+)

The top tier is chock full of talent with Steven Stamkos (TB) - $7700, Connor McDavid (EDM) - $7600, John Tavares - $7200 (NYI), Sidney Crosby (PIT) - $6900, and Patrice Bergeron (BOS) - $6800. While all of these guys are point per game options with elite talent, I like taking a gamble on Crosby's slightly depressed price tag. Whatever your thoughts are about the guy (he's sort of the NHL's Tom Brady), he's a career 1.3 PPG player and coming off a 4 pt effort against NYI. The Pens face a stouter defense when they go up against the Bruins tonight, though Boston is playing the 2nd game in a back to back set, where they have a -0.50 goal differential this season.

Another interesting option is Sean Couturier (PHI) - $6600. The Flyers have an afternoon home game against the lowly Sabres, who are allowing 4.33 goals per game so far in the new calendar year. I don't expect much to change today, and Couturier is starting to show some of his promise. This is a guy who was considered a possible #1 overall pick in the run up to the 2011 draft and ended up still being a lottery selection for the Flyers. Coming into this year he'd never put up 40 pts in any season, though he's currently at 40 in 41 games so far and trending in the right direction. A tough call only $300 less than Crosby but consider the match-up.

Mid Tier ($5000 - $6400)

My favorite option in the mid tier is Nico Hischier (NJ) - $5300. The top pick in the 2017 NHL draft has come in with decidedly less fanfare than McDavid, but is quietly putting together an incredible rookie season for a guy who was playing in the QMJHL last year. He gets a juicy matchup versus the Isles today, who no matter how you slice it have given up a lot of goals this season. In fact, they've given up 154 in 42 games, good for dead last in the NHL. A couple other good options in this tier are Jonathan Toews (CHI) - $6100, Tyler Johnson (TB) - $6000, and Nicklas Backstrom (WAS) - $5800. All of these guys have been around for awhile and had slow starts to the year, now they're all picking it up at the right time.

Low tier (Under $5000)

Brian Little (WPG) - $4800
David Backes (BOS ) - $4800
David Krejci (BOS) - $4200
Vince Hinostroza (CHI) - $3700
Jordan Weal (PHI) - $3100
Markus Granlund (VAN) - $3100
Kyle Brodziak (STL) - $3000
Noel Acciari (BOS) - $3000

Left Wing

Top Tier ($6500+)

Alex Ovechkin (WAS) - $7900, Brad Marchand (BOS) - $7100, and Taylor Hall (NYI) - $7100 are all elite options that are coming into today on hot streaks. My gut tells me to go with Ovechkin, especially if you went with Niklas Backstrom at C, but all 3 are in play today. If you went with Couturier, consider pairing him with Claude Giroux (PHI) - $6500, and same with pairing David Pastrnak (BOS) - $6500 with Bergeron.

Mid Tier ($5000 - $6400)

Brandon Saad (CHI) - $5100 would be a great pair up with Toews, other than that I don't see much at this level. Possibly Nikolai Ehlers (WPG) - $6400 but honestly I'd rather spend my salary elsewhere today.

Low tier (Under $5000)

Danton Heinen (BOS) - $4600
Alexander Steen (STL) - $4100
Patrick Sharp (CHI) - $3400
Jimmy Vesey (NYR) - $3200
Michael Raffl (PHI) - $3200
Tim Schaller (BOS) - $3100

Right Wing

Top Tier ($6500+)

Absolutely loaded here - throw a dart. Nikita Kucherov (TB) - $8100 has had a couple down games but is still a great option, maybe a little overpriced. Blake Wheeler (WPG) - $7500 has a 4 game goal streak going, and his line-mate Patrik Laine (WPG) - $7200 correspondingly has a 4 game assist streak. Patrick Kane (CHI) - $7500 is a known commodity (mom taught me if you can't say anything nice...), but I think the best deal here is Jakub Voracek (PHI) - $6600 facing the previously mentioned woeful Sabres.

Mid Tier ($5000 - $6400)

Brock Boeser (VAN) - $6400 has a name more akin to that of a pro surfer, but he's actually tied for 4th with John Tavares on the goal scoring leaders list with 22 on the season and quite a good option today for the price. Wayne Simmonds (PHI) - $5300 is an absolute steal at this price and probably my #1 lock of the day. Sort of the perfect combo of a player that's consistent and has hat-trick potential any night, AND with a good match up at home. Reilly Smith (VGK) - $5000 has strung together about a dozen good games in a row for the WESTERN CONFERENCE LEADING GOLDEN KNIGHTS...wait, let me go check that again to make sure. It's right around the halfway mark of the year and the Misfit Toys are 3 points behind the Lightning in the Presidents' Trophy race. Just let this all sink in and keep riding the wave in your lineups.

Low tier (Under $5000)

Alex Tuch (VGK) - $4100
Kyle Okposo (BUF) - $4000
Ryan Hartman (CHI) - $3700
Kevin Hayes (NYR) - $3500
Joel Armia (WPG) - $3200
Martin Frk (DET) - $3000 (Cheap enough that you'll be able to buy the vowel he couldn't)

Defense

Top Tier ($5500+)

Brent Burns (SJ) - $7000 and Victor Hedman (TB) - $6700 are no-brainer picks, though the price tag means you're not finding too much of a bargain here. My favorite pick would be Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI) - $5600 to save a little cash. Ghost Bear has the ability to put up tons of points in any given night, and has a pretty solid floor at 3-3.5 pts so should be just as safe as the top two guys.

Mid Tier ($4000 - $5400)

Duncan Keith (CHI) - $5000 is always a safe option, though I'm not sure if he has the potential of the 3 I've got listed in the top tier. Ivan Provorov (PHI) - $4900 is another young dman in Philly who has been even hotter than Ghost Bear and does have the same potential as the top tier options, close to being my second lock along with Simmonds. Charlie McAvoy (BOS) - $4600 has had an absolute dream rookie season so far and seems to keep getting better. Alexander Edler (VAN) - $4400 has been a fixture in Vancouver for a decade and lately is just EVERYWHERE...stuffing the stat sheet with shots and blocks.

Low tier (Under $4000)

Josh Morrissey (WPG) - $3900
Colin Miller (VGK) - $3800
Sami Vatanen (NJ) - $3800
Nate Schmidt (VGK) - $3500
Christian Djoos (WAS) - $3000
Kevan Miller (BOS) - $3000
Brenden Dillon (SJ) - $2900

Goaltenders

Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) - $8200 - 15-1-1 at home this season, career 8-3-0 mark in day games with a GAA under 2. San Jose comes into this matchup on a 2 game losing streak, and aren't really lighting the lamp much lately as the 22nd ranked NHL offense.

Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB) - $8400 - Even with the blemish of giving up 6 goals to Ottawa his last time out, Vasilevskiy is your NHL leader no matter how you sort it - GAA, SV %, W, SHO. Your half-season Vezina winner by a MILE. Look for him to get back on track against Detroit today, who are 25th in the NHL in goal scoring.

Michal Neuvirth (PHI) - $8300 - Wow, no bargain here...everyone's on to how bad the Sabres offense is. Neuvirth will be going up against his former team and while his price-tag is pretty high for a backup, he's got 11 career shutouts coming into this game and the juiciest of matchups at home.

FLEX

So you've got a couple flex spots left and not much money...the best of the best bargain picks from above :

David Krejci (BOS) - $4200
Vince Hinostroza (CHI) - $3700
Jimmy Vesey (NYR) - $3200
Tim Schaller (BOS) - $3100
Alex Tuch (VGK) - $4100
Joel Armia (WPG) - $3200

That's it! Happy lineup building and feel free to leave me comments with any questions or comments. Feel free to tell me what you'd like to see in future versions of this guide, and if you need any help with signing up at cryptofantasysports.com I would be glad to help you.

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Great write up. Keep these up. It'll give me a lot to chew on before building my fantasy lineups.

Be sure to check out today's pick 'ems!
Maverick's Evening NHL Pick 'Em
Maverick's Evening NBA Pick 'Em

Pro breakdown, ty for the detailed write up. I'm going get in some hockey now lol

Great article I love to see DFS content on Steemit! Just a suggestion but I would try to bullet the paragraph sections more separating each of the plays making it easier to read. I know that formatting in Steemit isn't always intuitive I am still learning it myself. Keep up the good work!

Great call, I've got about 2-3 open tabs on Steem formatting how to pages but I was maybe in a bit of a rush to get this out to give people time to prepare with the 1PM slate. Tomorrow is 7PM so I'll spend some more time formatting. Appreciate the feedback and thanks for reading.