New week, same top two players
Specifically Drew Brees, who is projected to have yet another monster week with a favorible matchup at the Chargers. He just gets barely above Cam Newton, who himself has another great match with the Falcons. My overall top ten after that? All quarterbacks, most with great matchups against suspect defenses. It really is going to be tough to decide exactly which one to pick when you start stacking your lineups this week, and could really make an argument for just about all.
My best bet? I still love Brees, especially against a San Diego team that historically plays terrible when they are at home. Also, who exactly has the Bears secondary shut down this year? Thinking Stafford might be a steal this week, but a common stack with a guy like Marvin Jones or Golden Tate.
If you are looking for a super sneaky stack, Andy Dalton and AJ Green were both ranked in the top five in their respective positions for me, and have a favorable match against a weaker defense this week.
Defensive Data - Now 2016 only!
I have now the minimum amount of data points to rank defenses based on the 2016 season only. Therefore, starting this week, I am only using 2016 fantasy information to rank teams as strong or weak. Remember, the algorithm doesn't care about game points, it cares about fantasy points. If a defense tends to make my projections overestimates, they are awesome at what they do.
I have many movers and shakers, and even some surprises with this information.
Consider the Texans as a curious example. They got smashed by the Patriots last Thursday night, but the algorithm still likes how they are performing on average versus a standard player projection. It also likes a divisional match against the Titans at home that could be a low scoring low yardage affair.
Rounding out the top five D's are your usual suspects, with not too many surprises. Philadelphia has to be considered legit at this point, but the season wearing on will determine how elite they can stay. Note, they also have a bye week this week, so look for them to remain in the top ten next week as well.
The return of Le'Veon Bell
I just don't know what to make of it, and neither does the algorithm. I have him currently as the #25 RB, and a virtual stay away player at his current hefty price tag. If he had a better matchup, I would take a flier on him, but the Chiefs have been playing pretty tough this season so far. I totally believe he will rack up more points than DeAngelo Williams, as he is the feature back and truly elite. Just how many that is depends on the circumstances of the day.
If you believe he is getting an enormous amount of touches and looks and are looking for a more aggressive estimate, I have his 99th percentile performance possibility at 17.7 points. This would place in certainly in the top tier, and firmly as the #1 RB overall. The game this week should be telling for his rankings in weeks to come.
The Siemian Effect - Two DEN WR's in the Top 5
Demaryius Thomas having a great Week 3, and Emmanual Sanders continuing to do really well helped both their causes this week. Playing a TB secondary that is really rough right now also helps. The algorithm loves the Broncos in all phases, and rewards both potent offensive matchups this week with a high points projection.
Antonio Brown is sliding down the rankings some as the result of his less than perfect play these first three weeks. He had been projected to be Hercules, but is slowly coming back down to more realistic expectations. The same could be said of Julio Jones after a poor Week 3 showing at the Saints.
The Week 4 Algorithm Draft Kings Optimal Lineup Thurs.-Mon.
Inputting all of my projected points, salaries, and projections in my custom solver yields the following "optimal" lineup for Week 4:
Look, I never would start constructing a lineup with two receivers on the same team. But, the computer loves the trajectory and matchup with TB this week, so I will ride it out. I don't believe I will be doing so in any other of my lineups though.
A lot of love has also been given to Coby Fleener, though as a Colts fan, I would be cautious about putting all your eggs in his basket before seeing a larger sample size in New Orleans. He drops way too many balls, and his biggest consistency point from a fantasy perspective has been his inconsistency. He draws a great match this week with the Chargers, so I understand the computer love.
Many of you are probably shaking your heads at Matt Forte, especially against the Seahawks. But, consider just how many potential carries Forte is going to receive, consider it is a home match, and consider this is an early game against a west coast team coming across three time zones for an east cost 1 PM start. I like all those factors, and can get behind this placement as well.
Finally, what else is there to say about Pryor? He gets the Redskins this week, rated dead last in my overall DST standings as the worst fantasy defense in the league. This is especially tasty if he continues to get multiple looks at multiple positions on Sunday.
Want to use the solver?
You can too! It can be found here, in a shared file through Dropbox.
This is a tool you can use to project an optimal lineup for Week 4 with my custom rankings and Draft Kings salaries. It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.
Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values, this is your sandbox! Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use and reset each time.
REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!
I do not in any way endorse you gambling solely with this information. This is for your mathematical enjoyment! For reminders on how these rankings are generated, please check out my other fantasy pieces here.
Time for my model!
This week, and all weeks in the future, I will show a players change in ranking from the week prior. You can use this new information to gauge players trending in either direction. New players each week will be marked N/A.
My Top QB's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | SD | 25.6 | 7600 | 29 |
| 2 | 0 | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | ATL | 25.6 | 7800 | 31 |
| 3 | +2 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | CHI | 22.2 | 7300 | 17 |
| 4 | +3 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | CIN | 21.9 | 5800 | 20 |
| 5 | +5 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | MIA | 20.7 | 6100 | 28 |
| 6 | -2 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | CAR | 20.5 | 7000 | 14 |
| 7 | +2 | Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | IND | 20.4 | 6400 | 30 |
| 8 | +8 | Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | LA | 20.4 | 6300 | 27 |
| 9 | +5 | Philip Rivers | QB | SD | NO | 20.2 | 6900 | 21 |
| 10 | -7 | Andrew Luck | QB | IND | JAX | 19.8 | 7400 | 10 |
| 11 | +1 | Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | OAK | 19.8 | 5900 | 26 |
| 12 | +5 | Alex Smith | QB | KC | PIT | 19.2 | 5600 | 18 |
| 13 | +7 | Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | CLE | 18.7 | 6500 | 25 |
| 14 | -3 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | NYJ | 18.2 | 6600 | 15 |
| 15 | N/A | Brian Hoyer | QB | CHI | DET | 16.8 | 5000 | 24 |
| 16 | +10 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | SF | 16.7 | 5700 | 23 |
| 17 | -11 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | KC | 16.6 | 7100 | 2 |
| 18 | +11 | Trevor Siemian | QB | DEN | TB | 16.5 | 5400 | 19 |
| 19 | 0 | Jameis Winston | QB | TB | DEN | 16.0 | 5400 | 5 |
| 20 | -5 | Eli Manning | QB | NYG | MIN | 15.8 | 6100 | 4 |
| 21 | -8 | Derek Carr | QB | OAK | BAL | 15.7 | 6700 | 6 |
| 22 | -1 | Blaine Gabbert | QB | SF | DAL | 15.7 | 5000 | 16 |
| 23 | -5 | Sam Bradford | QB | MIN | NYG | 14.6 | 5100 | 9 |
| 24 | N/A | AJ McCarron | QB | CIN | MIA | 14.3 | 5000 | 28 |
| 25 | -1 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | NE | 14.2 | 5400 | 11 |
| 26 | N/A | Ryan Mallett | QB | BAL | OAK | 14.1 | 5000 | 26 |
| 27 | N/A | Colin Kaepernick | QB | SF | DAL | 13.5 | 5000 | 16 |
| 28 | -6 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | SEA | 13.0 | 5300 | 8 |
| 29 | -2 | Case Keenum | QB | LA | ARI | 11.1 | 5000 | 7 |
| 30 | N/A | EJ Manuel | QB | BUF | NE | 11.0 | 5000 | 11 |
| 31 | -3 | Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | TEN | 10.9 | 5800 | 13 |
| 32 | -9 | Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | HOU | 10.5 | 5500 | 1 |
| 33 | N/A | Jacoby Brissett | QB | NE | BUF | 8.5 | 5100 | 12 |
My Top RB's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Matt Forte | RB | NYJ | SEA | 17.5 | 6600 | 8 |
| 2 | +7 | David Johnson | RB | ARI | LA | 17.0 | 7800 | 27 |
| 3 | +1 | LeSean McCoy | RB | BUF | NE | 15.7 | 6700 | 11 |
| 4 | +11 | Mark Ingram | RB | NO | SD | 15.1 | 5900 | 29 |
| 5 | +18 | Jeremy Hill | RB | CIN | MIA | 14.7 | 4100 | 28 |
| 6 | -3 | DeMarco Murray | RB | TEN | HOU | 14.6 | 6800 | 1 |
| 7 | +9 | Giovani Bernard | RB | CIN | MIA | 14.3 | 4700 | 28 |
| 8 | -2 | CJ Anderson | RB | DEN | TB | 14.1 | 6500 | 19 |
| 9 | +9 | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | SF | 14.1 | 6900 | 23 |
| 10 | -2 | Melvin Gordon | RB | SD | NO | 13.9 | 6300 | 21 |
| 11 | +8 | Isaiah Crowell | RB | CLE | WAS | 13.8 | 4400 | 32 |
| 12 | +2 | TJ Yeldon | RB | JAX | IND | 13.5 | 4600 | 30 |
| 13 | -2 | Devonta Freeman | RB | ATL | CAR | 12.8 | 5500 | 14 |
| 14 | +24 | Carlos Hyde | RB | SF | DAL | 12.6 | 4200 | 16 |
| 15 | +13 | Spencer Ware | RB | KC | PIT | 12.6 | 5700 | 18 |
| 16 | +17 | Duke Johnson | RB | CLE | WAS | 12.5 | 4000 | 32 |
| 17 | -12 | Lamar Miller | RB | HOU | TEN | 12.2 | 7000 | 13 |
| 18 | +8 | Theo Riddick | RB | DET | CHI | 11.9 | 5200 | 17 |
| 19 | -17 | DeAngelo Williams | RB | PIT | KC | 11.8 | 6200 | 2 |
| 20 | +7 | LeGarrette Blount | RB | NE | BUF | 11.7 | 5000 | 12 |
| 21 | -14 | Frank Gore | RB | IND | JAX | 11.6 | 5200 | 10 |
| 22 | +8 | Justin Forsett | RB | BAL | OAK | 11.5 | 3800 | 26 |
| 23 | -10 | Chris Johnson | RB | ARI | LA | 11.3 | 3400 | 27 |
| 24 | N/A | Chris Ivory | RB | JAX | IND | 11.0 | 3700 | 30 |
| 25 | N/A | Le'Veon Bell | RB | PIT | KC | 10.8 | 7500 | 2 |
| 26 | -5 | Todd Gurley | RB | LA | ARI | 10.9 | 6700 | 7 |
| 27 | +4 | Tevin Coleman | RB | ATL | CAR | 10.6 | 4500 | 14 |
| 28 | +22 | Fozzy Whittaker | RB | CAR | ATL | 10.4 | 3900 | 31 |
| 29 | +6 | Matt Jones | RB | WAS | CLE | 10.3 | 4300 | 25 |
| 30 | +10 | Alfred Morris | RB | DAL | SF | 10.3 | 3900 | 23 |
| 31 | +11 | Christine Michael | RB | SEA | NYJ | 10.1 | 6000 | 15 |
| 32 | +2 | Terrance West | RB | BAL | OAK | 10.0 | 3400 | 26 |
| 33 | N/A | Cameron Artis-Payne | RB | CAR | ATL | 9.8 | 3400 | 31 |
| 34 | +21 | Andre Ellington | RB | ARI | LA | 9.5 | 3200 | 27 |
| 35 | +11 | Travaris Cadet | RB | NO | SD | 9.2 | 3100 | 29 |
| 36 | +1 | Tim Hightower | RB | NO | SD | 9.1 | 3300 | 29 |
| 37 | -5 | Charcandrick West | RB | KC | PIT | 8.9 | 3400 | 18 |
| 38 | N/A | Jordan Howard | RB | CHI | DET | 8.6 | 3700 | 24 |
| 39 | -27 | Latavius Murray | RB | OAK | BAL | 8.6 | 4900 | 6 |
| 40 | N/A | Dexter McCluster | RB | SD | NO | 8.3 | 3500 | 21 |
| 41 | +2 | Chris Thompson | RB | WAS | CLE | 8.2 | 3400 | 25 |
| 42 | -13 | Charles Sims | RB | TB | DEN | 8.0 | 5600 | 5 |
| 43 | +2 | Reggie Bush | RB | SF | NE | 7.4 | 3000 | 11 |
| 44 | N/A | Damien Williams | RB | MIA | CIN | 6.9 | 3000 | 20 |
| 45 | -4 | Bilal Powell | RB | NYJ | SEA | 6.8 | 3300 | 8 |
| 46 | -2 | Jay Ajayi | RB | MIA | CIN | 6.8 | 4000 | 20 |
| 47 | +7 | Lance Dunbar | RB | DAL | SF | 6.6 | 3000 | 23 |
| 48 | N/A | Kenyan Drake | RB | MIA | CIN | 6.6 | 3600 | 20 |
| 49 | -1 | James White | RB | NE | BUF | 6.1 | 3600 | 12 |
| 50 | N/A | Isaiah Pead | RB | MIA | CIN | 5.9 | 3000 | 20 |
| 51 | +11 | Shaun Draughn | RB | SF | DAL | 5.8 | 3300 | 16 |
| 52 | +18 | Dwayne Washington | RB | DET | CHI | 5.7 | 3800 | 17 |
| 53 | N/A | Devontae Booker | RB | DEN | TB | 5.6 | 3000 | 19 |
| 54 | N/A | Jonathan Grimes | RB | HOU | TEN | 4.9 | 3000 | 13 |
| 55 | +9 | Alfred Blue | RB | HOU | TEN | 4.5 | 3100 | 13 |
| 56 | N/A | Zach Zenner | RB | DET | CHI | 4.5 | 3000 | 17 |
| 57 | -6 | Jerick McKinnon | RB | MIN | NYG | 4.2 | 3900 | 9 |
| 58 | N/A | Kapri Bibbs | RB | DEN | TB | 3.9 | 3000 | 19 |
| 59 | -3 | Matt Asiata | RB | MIN | NYG | 3.9 | 3300 | 9 |
| 60 | +7 | Brandon Bolden | RB | NE | BUF | 3.8 | 3000 | 12 |
| 61 | +4 | Mike Gillislee | RB | BUF | NE | 3.7 | 3000 | 11 |
| 62 | -15 | Jalen Richard | RB | OAK | BAL | 3.4 | 3400 | 6 |
| 63 | -10 | Josh Ferguson | RB | IND | JAX | 3.4 | 3000 | 10 |
| 64 | -7 | Robert Turbin | RB | IND | JAX | 3.1 | 3000 | 10 |
| 65 | -5 | Deandre Washington | RB | OAK | BAL | 2.4 | 3300 | 6 |
| 66 | N/A | Bobby Rainey | RB | NYG | MIN | 1.9 | 3000 | 4 |
| 67 | -1 | Orleans Darkwa | RB | NYG | MIN | 1.6 | 3000 | 4 |
| 68 | N/A | Jacquizz Rodgers | RB | TB | DEN | 1.3 | 3000 | 5 |
| 69 | -20 | Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | HOU | 1.2 | 3500 | 1 |
| 70 | N/A | Taiwan Jones | RB | OAK | BAL | 0.2 | 3000 | 6 |
| 71 | -3 | Fitzgerald Toussaint | RB | PIT | KC | -0.8 | 3000 | 2 |
My Top WR's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | AJ Green | WR | CIN | MIA | 19.3 | 8500 | 28 |
| 2 | +6 | Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | TB | 18.5 | 6700 | 19 |
| 3 | +4 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | LA | 18.3 | 7200 | 27 |
| 4 | -3 | Antonio Brown | WR | PIT | KC | 17.5 | 9700 | 2 |
| 5 | +13 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | DEN | TB | 17.1 | 6400 | 19 |
| 6 | +14 | Allen Robinson | WR | JAX | IND | 16.9 | 8000 | 30 |
| 7 | -5 | Julio Jones | WR | ATL | CAR | 16.7 | 9200 | 14 |
| 8 | +24 | Terrelle Pryor | WR | CLE | WAS | 16.6 | 4300 | 32 |
| 9 | +3 | Brandin Cooks | WR | NO | SD | 16.3 | 7400 | 29 |
| 10 | -1 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | CHI | DET | 16.3 | 7500 | 24 |
| 11 | +6 | Jarvis Landry | WR | MIA | CIN | 16.2 | 6900 | 20 |
| 12 | +11 | Kelvin Benjamin | WR | CAR | ATL | 16.0 | 7100 | 31 |
| 13 | +6 | Dez Bryant | WR | DAL | SF | 15.5 | 7900 | 23 |
| 14 | +1 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | KC | PIT | 15.1 | 6000 | 18 |
| 15 | +26 | Marvin Jones | WR | DET | CHI | 14.8 | 7300 | 17 |
| 16 | +19 | DeSean Jackson | WR | WAS | CLE | 14.6 | 6200 | 25 |
| 17 | -14 | Brandon Marshall | WR | NYJ | SEA | 14.0 | 7000 | 8 |
| 18 | +20 | Steve Smith | WR | BAL | OAK | 14.0 | 4500 | 26 |
| 19 | +3 | Doug Baldwin | WR | SEA | NYJ | 13.8 | 6100 | 15 |
| 20 | -14 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | TEN | 13.7 | 8400 | 13 |
| 21 | -8 | Mike Evans | WR | TB | DEN | 13.6 | 6500 | 5 |
| 22 | +6 | Anquan Boldin | WR | DET | CHI | 13.6 | 4200 | 17 |
| 23 | -2 | Allen Hurns | WR | JAX | IND | 13.5 | 4800 | 30 |
| 24 | +15 | Mike Wallace | WR | BAL | OAK | 13.5 | 5200 | 26 |
| 25 | +5 | Pierre Garcon | WR | WAS | CLE | 13.4 | 4000 | 25 |
| 26 | +10 | Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | LA | 13.3 | 5100 | 27 |
| 27 | +24 | Jamison Crowder | WR | WAS | CLE | 13.1 | 4200 | 25 |
| 28 | -12 | Julian Edelman | WR | NE | BUF | 12.9 | 5800 | 12 |
| 29 | -19 | Odell Beckham Jr | WR | NYG | MIN | 12.9 | 8700 | 4 |
| 30 | +13 | Travis Benjamin | WR | SD | NO | 12.8 | 5900 | 21 |
| 31 | +15 | Brandon LaFell | WR | CIN | MIA | 12.6 | 3200 | 28 |
| 32 | -21 | Eric Decker | WR | NYJ | SEA | 12.4 | 6300 | 8 |
| 33 | -2 | TY Hilton | WR | IND | JAX | 12.4 | 7000 | 10 |
| 34 | +3 | Devante Parker | WR | MIA | CIN | 12.3 | 5200 | 20 |
| 35 | +39 | Michael Thomas | WR | NO | SD | 11.9 | 3800 | 29 |
| 36 | +4 | Golden Tate | WR | DET | CHI | 11.8 | 5800 | 17 |
| 37 | +10 | Eddie Royal | WR | CHI | DET | 11.7 | 3500 | 24 |
| 38 | +27 | Terrance Williams | WR | DAL | SF | 11.7 | 3100 | 23 |
| 39 | +36 | John Brown | WR | ARI | LA | 11.5 | 4300 | 27 |
| 40 | +28 | Cole Beasley | WR | DAL | SF | 11.5 | 3900 | 23 |
| 41 | +42 | Devin Funchess | WR | CAR | ATL | 11.4 | 3600 | 31 |
| 42 | +45 | Marqise Lee | WR | JAX | IND | 10.9 | 3100 | 30 |
| 43 | -1 | Torrey Smith | WR | SF | DAL | 10.6 | 3900 | 16 |
| 44 | -19 | Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | NYG | 10.4 | 6100 | 9 |
| 45 | +33 | Brandon Coleman | WR | NO | SD | 10.4 | 3000 | 29 |
| 46 | +44 | Kevin White | WR | CHI | DET | 10.3 | 3400 | 24 |
| 47 | +22 | Andrew Hawkins | WR | CLE | WAS | 10.2 | 3000 | 32 |
| 48 | +7 | Kenny Stills | WR | MIA | CIN | 10.1 | 3500 | 20 |
| 49 | +8 | Tyrell Williams | WR | SD | NO | 9.9 | 4400 | 21 |
| 50 | +36 | Ted Ginn | WR | CAR | ATL | 9.9 | 3700 | 31 |
| 51 | -18 | Michael Crabtree | WR | OAK | BAL | 9.8 | 6400 | 6 |
| 52 | -18 | Amari Cooper | WR | OAK | BAL | 9.7 | 7600 | 6 |
| 53 | -3 | Kamar Aiken | WR | BAL | OAK | 9.7 | 3000 | 26 |
| 54 | -28 | Will Fuller | WR | HOU | TEN | 9.6 | 5300 | 13 |
| 55 | +50 | Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | MIA | 9.4 | 3400 | 28 |
| 56 | +44 | Corey Brown | WR | CAR | ATL | 9.4 | 3000 | 31 |
| 57 | +7 | Tavon Austin | WR | LA | ARI | 8.5 | 4000 | 7 |
| 58 | -9 | Sterling Shepard | WR | NYG | MIN | 8.4 | 5800 | 4 |
| 59 | -6 | Mohamed Sanu | WR | ATL | CAR | 8.1 | 5700 | 14 |
| 60 | +1 | Dontrelle Inman | WR | SD | NO | 8.0 | 3300 | 21 |
| 61 | +12 | Robert Woods | WR | BUF | NE | 7.9 | 3400 | 11 |
| 62 | +5 | Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | NYJ | 7.9 | 3900 | 15 |
| 63 | +16 | Danny Amendola | WR | NE | BUF | 7.8 | 3600 | 12 |
| 64 | -19 | Vincent Jackson | WR | TB | DEN | 7.6 | 3400 | 5 |
| 65 | +42 | Rashad Greene | WR | JAX | IND | 7.6 | 3000 | 30 |
| 66 | +29 | Jeremy Kerley | WR | SF | DAL | 7.5 | 3400 | 16 |
| 67 | +13 | Chris Conley | WR | KC | PIT | 7.5 | 3000 | 18 |
| 68 | N/A | Josh Bellamy | WR | CHI | DET | 7.5 | 3000 | 24 |
| 69 | +19 | Ryan Grant | WR | WAS | CLE | 7.5 | 3000 | 25 |
| 70 | -22 | Victor Cruz | WR | NYG | MIN | 7.3 | 4600 | 4 |
| 71 | -12 | Kenny Britt | WR | LA | ARI | 7.1 | 3900 | 7 |
| 72 | -9 | Jermaine Kearse | WR | SEA | NYJ | 7.1 | 3200 | 15 |
| 73 | +4 | Albert Wilson | WR | KC | PIT | 6.9 | 3000 | 18 |
| 74 | +30 | Jordan Norwood | WR | DEN | TB | 6.8 | 3000 | 19 |
| 75 | N/A | Griff Whalen | WR | IND | NO | 6.8 | 3000 | 21 |
| 76 | +26 | Brice Butler | WR | DAL | SF | 6.8 | 3000 | 23 |
| 77 | +19 | Breshad Perriman | WR | BAL | OAK | 6.5 | 3000 | 26 |
| 78 | +13 | Chris Hogan | WR | NE | BUF | 6.5 | 3700 | 12 |
| 79 | -35 | Andre Johnson | WR | TEN | HOU | 6.3 | 3200 | 1 |
| 80 | N/A | Quincy Enunwa | WR | NYJ | SEA | 6.2 | 4400 | 8 |
| 81 | +17 | Quinton Patton | WR | SF | DAL | 6.1 | 3000 | 16 |
| 82 | N/A | Marquise Goodwin | WR | BUF | NE | 5.8 | 3000 | 11 |
| 83 | N/A | James Wright | WR | CIN | MIA | 5.8 | 3000 | 28 |
| 84 | +1 | Paul Richardson | WR | SEA | NYJ | 5.7 | 3000 | 15 |
| 85 | N/A | Deonte Thompson | WR | CHI | DET | 5.6 | 3000 | 24 |
| 86 | N/A | Cameron Meredith | WR | CHI | DET | 5.6 | 3000 | 24 |
| 87 | -17 | Seth Roberts | WR | OAK | BAL | 5.4 | 3500 | 6 |
| 88 | +5 | Justin Hardy | WR | ATL | CAR | 5.3 | 3000 | 14 |
| 89 | N/A | Adam Humphries | WR | TB | DEN | 5.0 | 3000 | 5 |
| 90 | -14 | Phillip Dorsett | WR | IND | JAX | 4.9 | 4700 | 10 |
| 91 | +10 | Jaelen Strong | WR | HOU | TEN | 4.9 | 3100 | 13 |
| 92 | N/A | Cody Latimer | WR | DEN | TB | 4.7 | 3000 | 19 |
| 93 | +1 | Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | NYG | 4.6 | 3100 | 9 |
| 94 | N/A | Jarius Wright | WR | MIN | NYG | 4.4 | 3000 | 9 |
| 95 | N/A | Bennie Fowler | WR | DEN | TB | 4.0 | 3000 | 19 |
| 96 | -40 | Tajae Sharpe | WR | TEN | HOU | 3.9 | 5000 | 1 |
| 97 | +6 | Brian Quick | WR | LA | ARI | 3.9 | 3000 | 7 |
| 98 | N/A | Malcolm Mitchell | WR | NE | BUF | 3.6 | 3000 | 12 |
| 99 | -15 | Andre Holmes | WR | OAK | BAL | 3.2 | 3000 | 6 |
| 100 | +6 | Charles Johnson | WR | MIN | NYG | 2.9 | 3000 | 9 |
| 101 | -29 | Rishard Matthews | WR | TEN | HOU | 2.5 | 3100 | 1 |
| 102 | -42 | Eli Rogers | WR | PIT | KC | 2.5 | 3500 | 2 |
| 103 | -11 | Sammie Coates | WR | PIT | KC | 2.0 | 3600 | 2 |
| 104 | N/A | Russell Shepard | WR | TB | DEN | 0.0 | 3000 | 5 |
My Top TE's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | ATL | 16.4 | 6000 | 31 |
| 2 | +5 | Julius Thomas | TE | JAX | IND | 13.5 | 4400 | 30 |
| 3 | +10 | Coby Fleener | TE | NO | SD | 13.3 | 3200 | 29 |
| 4 | +1 | Jason Witten | TE | DAL | SF | 12.7 | 4500 | 23 |
| 5 | -3 | Jordan Reed | TE | WAS | CLE | 12.7 | 6300 | 25 |
| 6 | -2 | Jimmy Graham | TE | SEA | NYJ | 12.4 | 4000 | 15 |
| 7 | +4 | Gary Barnidge | TE | CLE | WAS | 11.8 | 3600 | 32 |
| 8 | +1 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | PIT | 11.8 | 4800 | 18 |
| 9 | +18 | Zach Miller | TE | CHI | DET | 11.3 | 2700 | 24 |
| 10 | N/A | Rob Gronkowski | TE | NE | BUF | 11.0 | 6500 | 12 |
| 11 | +1 | Dennis Pitta | TE | BAL | OAK | 10.5 | 3900 | 26 |
| 12 | -6 | Martellus Bennett | TE | NE | BUF | 10.4 | 3500 | 12 |
| 13 | +11 | Eric Ebron | TE | DET | CHI | 9.8 | 3700 | 17 |
| 14 | 0 | Kyle Rudolph | TE | MIN | NYG | 9.2 | 3400 | 9 |
| 15 | +3 | Vernon Davis | TE | WAS | CLE | 8.9 | 2500 | 25 |
| 16 | +19 | Jermaine Gresham | TE | ARI | LA | 8.7 | 2500 | 27 |
| 17 | +5 | Maxx Williams | TE | BAL | OAK | 8.4 | 2500 | 26 |
| 18 | +25 | Marcedes Lewis | TE | JAX | IND | 8.3 | 2500 | 30 |
| 19 | +21 | Darren Fells | TE | ARI | LA | 8.1 | 2500 | 27 |
| 20 | +25 | Tyler Kroft | TE | CIN | MIA | 7.7 | 2500 | 28 |
| 21 | -6 | Charles Clay | TE | BUF | NE | 7.5 | 2600 | 11 |
| 22 | +7 | Crockett Gillmore | TE | BAL | OAK | 7.0 | 2500 | 26 |
| 23 | -7 | Jacob Tamme | TE | ATL | CAR | 6.9 | 3400 | 14 |
| 24 | +29 | CJ Uzomah | TE | CIN | MIA | 6.9 | 2500 | 28 |
| 25 | +26 | Ed Dickson | TE | CAR | ATL | 6.8 | 2500 | 31 |
| 26 | N/A | Hunter Henry | TE | SD | NO | 6.4 | 2700 | 21 |
| 27 | +9 | Dion Sims | TE | MIA | CIN | 6.0 | 2500 | 20 |
| 28 | N/A | Scott Simonson | TE | CAR | ATL | 5.7 | 2500 | 31 |
| 29 | -10 | Dwayne Allen | TE | IND | JAX | 5.7 | 3800 | 10 |
| 30 | N/A | Sean McGrath | TE | SD | NO | 5.6 | 2500 | 21 |
| 31 | +7 | Vance McDonald | TE | SF | DAL | 5.5 | 2700 | 16 |
| 32 | N/A | Niles Paul | TE | WAS | CLE | 5.4 | 2500 | 25 |
| 33 | +1 | Demetrius Harris | TE | KC | PIT | 5.3 | 2500 | 18 |
| 34 | +18 | Logan Paulsen | TE | WAS | DET | 5.2 | 2500 | 24 |
| 35 | +12 | Gavin Escobar | TE | DAL | SF | 5.1 | 2500 | 23 |
| 36 | +14 | Geoff Swaim | TE | DAL | SF | 4.6 | 2500 | 23 |
| 37 | +12 | Ryan Griffin | TE | HOU | TEN | 4.6 | 2600 | 13 |
| 38 | +3 | Luke Willson | TE | SEA | NYJ | 4.6 | 2500 | 15 |
| 39 | -13 | Lance Kendricks | TE | LA | ARI | 4.6 | 2600 | 7 |
| 40 | -10 | Jack Doyle | TE | IND | JAX | 4.5 | 2500 | 10 |
| 41 | +3 | Garrett Celek | TE | SF | DAL | 4.4 | 2500 | 16 |
| 42 | N/A | Blake Bell | TE | SF | DAL | 4.3 | 2500 | 16 |
| 43 | N/A | John Phillips | TE | DEN | TB | 4.2 | 2500 | 19 |
| 44 | N/A | James O'Shaughnessy | TE | KC | PIT | 4.1 | 2500 | 18 |
| 45 | -8 | Cameron Brate | TE | TB | DEN | 4.0 | 2800 | 5 |
| 46 | -21 | Clive Walford | TE | OAK | BAL | 3.8 | 2700 | 6 |
| 47 | -5 | Austin Hooper | TE | ATL | CAR | 3.4 | 2500 | 14 |
| 48 | -31 | Larry Donnell | TE | NYG | MIN | 3.1 | 2600 | 4 |
| 49 | -29 | Will Tye | TE | NYG | MIN | 3.0 | 2600 | 4 |
| 50 | N/A | Levine Toilolo | TE | ATL | CAR | 2.9 | 2500 | 14 |
| 51 | N/A | Cole Wick | TE | DET | CHI | 2.9 | 2500 | 17 |
| 52 | N/A | Clay Harbor | TE | NE | BUF | 2.8 | 2500 | 12 |
| 53 | N/A | Jim Dray | TE | BUF | NE | 2.7 | 2500 | 11 |
| 54 | -23 | Brandon Myers | TE | TB | DEN | 2.6 | 2500 | 5 |
| 55 | N/A | Stephen Anderson | TE | HOU | TEN | 2.5 | 2500 | 13 |
| 56 | N/A | CJ Fiedorowicz | TE | HOU | TEN | 2.2 | 2500 | 13 |
| 57 | N/A | Lee Smith | TE | OAK | BAL | 1.7 | 2500 | 6 |
| 58 | -30 | Jesse James | TE | PIT | KC | 1.3 | 3100 | 2 |
| 59 | -13 | Rhett Ellison | TE | MIN | NYG | 1.2 | 2500 | 9 |
| 60 | -27 | Anthony Fasano | TE | TEN | HOU | 1.0 | 2500 | 1 |
| 61 | N/A | Jace Amaro | TE | TEN | HOU | 1.0 | 2600 | 1 |
| 62 | N/A | Kellen Davis | TE | NYJ | SEA | 0.2 | 2500 | 8 |
| 63 | N/A | Phillip Supernaw | TE | TEN | HOU | 0.0 | 2500 | 1 |
My Top DST's:
Bye weeks this week: PHI and GB
| Rank | Change | Team | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +6 | HOU | 0.970 |
| 2 | +10 | KC | 0.959 |
| 3 | +23 | PHI | 0.914 |
| 4 | -2 | MIN | 0.903 |
| 5 | +3 | DEN | 0.902 |
| 6 | +7 | BAL | 0.839 |
| 7 | -6 | ARI | 0.800 |
| 8 | +2 | SEA | 0.799 |
| 9 | +19 | NYG | 0.794 |
| 10 | +17 | JAX | 0.701 |
| 11 | -7 | NE | 0.629 |
| 12 | +11 | BUF | 0.605 |
| 13 | +12 | TEN | 0.603 |
| 14 | -11 | CAR | 0.562 |
| 15 | +3 | NYJ | 0.506 |
| 16 | -10 | DAL | 0.442 |
| 17 | +5 | CHI | 0.292 |
| 18 | +12 | PIT | 0.268 |
| 19 | 0 | TB | 0.259 |
| 20 | -6 | CIN | 0.253 |
| 21 | +11 | NO | 0.250 |
| 22 | -17 | GB | 0.231 |
| 23 | +8 | SF | 0.220 |
| 24 | -9 | DET | 0.189 |
| 25 | -1 | CLE | 0.166 |
| 26 | -5 | OAK | 0.155 |
| 27 | -7 | LA | 0.108 |
| 28 | +1 | MIA | 0.107 |
| 29 | -18 | SD | 0.091 |
| 30 | -21 | IND | 0.089 |
| 31 | -15 | ATL | 0.072 |
| 32 | -15 | WAS | 0.072 |
Does the Home-Away split on Drew Brees performance scares you?
Not necessarily this week because of just how weak the Chargers are on D. But, it would scare me against the Vikes or Patriots though for sure.
great call on aj green. I bet your algorithm has Julio up there next after the 12-300-1 line.