There is no doubt it was a depressing Week 4.
And I knew it the very moment this guy caught his bajillionth ball for like one trillion yards:
There is no doubt in my mind I missed out on winning anything this week by completely whiffing on Julio Jones. I somewhat whiffed on Matt Ryan, having him ranked in my top ten, but not selecting him over lesser options. I completely whiffed on Michael Crabtree, but a lot of others did as well. And, I way overestimated Matt Forte, again.
My lineups weren't amazingly terrible collectively, with about a 132 average. And, even my predictive model r^2 went up this week to a more respectable 0.24. But, I never had a chance against the millions of others with Julio and other studs in their lineups, and as a result ate a really terrible 59% loss this week.
For the season, this makes me a total of about $33 down, or about 9% on the year. Not an awesome way at all to build momentum for next week.
Week 4 Strategy - Good in spots, terrible overall.
I really thought going into this week I had stellar matchups with a ton of potential. Take, for example, a guy like Drew Brees against the Chargers. I know much is made of his road/home splits, but San Diego really was a favorable matchup and the Saints saw a lot of chances in the redzone. Then, former Green Bay fullback John Kuhn came out to suck up three TD's from other more viable fantasy options and the rest is history.
Injuries really hurt my cause too. I was heavier on Cam Newton, and he went through the concussion protocol before their garbage time comeback. Lineups like this favorite of mine were pretty much registered moot.
Same can be said for Trevor Siemian, who probably would have thrown for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns against a porous Tampa Bay secondary. A shoulder injury and a replacement in rookie QB Paxton Lynch sucked up all of my hopes there.
My last big miss of the week was in a guy like Jamison Crowder, who had been getting 7+ meaningful targets each of the past three weeks for the Redskins, but suddenly disappeared against the woeful Cleveland Browns.
This week just was not mine for the taking, as evidenced by my one and only Millionaire Maker stab this week. A chance that went up in flames when Siemean got hurt. I will just have to make my millions at some other time in the future once I gain some more insights from this whole experiment!
My Best Lineup - 175.62 Points
I did have some pretty nice hits this week, just not all in the same lineup. The Texans DST came through with a nice special teams touchdown, and Steve Smith proved to be a true favorite target of Flacco's. Also, not pictured here, was a pretty nice hit on A.J. Green that helped me in some of my smaller GPP lineups to victory. All of these guys were projection guys that hit rather nicely!
My Worst Lineup (Also the Excel Solver Lineup) - 107.68 Points
And then, there's this steaming pile of garbage. Pretty much explains itself. I was originally hesitant about starting two Denver receivers in the same lineup, which actually wound up being a nice move. However, both running backs significantly under performed their projections, and my biggest miss in the week in Coby Fleener had all his red zone opportunities sucked up by the usually irrelevant John Kuhn.
Inside the Data
Below is my box plot of the differences between predicted and actual results for Week 4, 2016 with examples of players that fell in each range. The majority of my results were between a 0.52 point Median overestimate and a 4.12 point third quartile overestimate.
My "Normal" Distribution
Assuming all of my differences between predicted and actual are normally distributed (think bell curve), about 68% of my predictions lie on the interval [-8.39 ,6.55]. Again, negative numbers here mean underestimates, and positive numbers mean overestimates.
I'm getting better with the model, if ever so marginally. I do have cause for optimism with many of these numbers improving. Just got extremely unlucky this week by picking the wrong guys to have breakout performances. Goes to show, just like any other game of skill and chance, just how much chance is a part of the picture. By no means do I believe the skill is all the way there yet, but chance certainly was not on my side this week.
Results by Player -- Week 4, 2016
I would be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed in my week from a dollars lost perspective. However, from an algorithm standpoint I believe I am gaining some interesting insights on players to pick and data to trust. Here's hoping I do not repeat my mistakes of this past week for weeks in the future!
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | QB | NO | SD | 25.6 | 13.9 | 11.8 |
| Cam Newton | QB | CAR | ATL | 25.6 | 15.6 | 10.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | CHI | 22.2 | 10.2 | 12.0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | CIN | 21.9 | 9.6 | 12.3 |
| Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | MIA | 20.7 | 14.6 | 6.1 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | CAR | 20.5 | 39.5 | (19.0) |
| Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | IND | 20.4 | 25.9 | (5.5) |
| Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | LA | 20.4 | 13.5 | 6.9 |
| Philip Rivers | QB | SD | NO | 20.2 | 22.8 | (2.6) |
| Andrew Luck | QB | IND | JAX | 19.8 | 18.7 | 1.2 |
| Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | OAK | 19.8 | 23.0 | (3.3) |
| AJ Green | WR | CIN | MIA | 19.3 | 36.3 | (17.0) |
| Alex Smith | QB | KC | PIT | 19.2 | 18.7 | 0.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | CLE | 18.7 | 18.3 | 0.4 |
| Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | TB | 18.5 | 21.4 | (2.9) |
| Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | LA | 18.3 | 11.3 | 7.0 |
| Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | NYJ | 18.2 | 26.9 | (8.6) |
| Matt Forte | RB | NYJ | SEA | 17.5 | 6.3 | 11.2 |
| Antonio Brown | WR | PIT | KC | 17.5 | 22.4 | (4.9) |
| Emmanuel Sanders | WR | DEN | TB | 17.1 | 22.8 | (5.7) |
| David Johnson | RB | ARI | LA | 17.0 | 15.4 | 1.6 |
| Allen Robinson | WR | JAX | IND | 16.9 | 16.5 | 0.4 |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | CHI | DET | 16.8 | 22.8 | (6.0) |
| Julio Jones | WR | ATL | CAR | 16.7 | 51.0 | (34.3) |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | SF | 16.7 | 18.1 | (1.4) |
| Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | KC | 16.6 | 36.9 | (20.3) |
| Terrelle Pryor | WR | CLE | WAS | 16.6 | 15.0 | 1.6 |
| Trevor Siemian | QB | DEN | TB | 16.5 | 6.7 | 9.8 |
| Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | ATL | 16.4 | 21.6 | (5.2) |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | NO | SD | 16.3 | 6.1 | 10.2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | WR | CHI | DET | 16.3 | 7.6 | 8.7 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | MIA | CIN | 16.2 | 13.1 | 3.1 |
| Jameis Winston | QB | TB | DEN | 16.0 | 13.1 | 3.0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | WR | CAR | ATL | 16.0 | 12.9 | 3.1 |
| Eli Manning | QB | NYG | MIN | 15.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 |
| Derek Carr | QB | OAK | BAL | 15.7 | 23.8 | (8.0) |
| LeSean McCoy | RB | BUF | NE | 15.7 | 22.8 | (7.1) |
| Blaine Gabbert | QB | SF | DAL | 15.7 | 13.5 | 2.1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | WR | KC | PIT | 15.1 | 12.8 | 2.3 |
| Mark Ingram | RB | NO | SD | 15.1 | 22.5 | (7.4) |
| Marvin Jones | WR | DET | CHI | 14.8 | 12.4 | 2.4 |
| Jeremy Hill | RB | CIN | MIA | 14.7 | 7.1 | 7.6 |
| DeSean Jackson | WR | WAS | CLE | 14.6 | 1.5 | 13.1 |
| DeMarco Murray | RB | TEN | HOU | 14.6 | 25.9 | (11.3) |
| Sam Bradford | QB | MIN | NYG | 14.6 | 15.1 | (0.5) |
| Giovani Bernard | RB | CIN | MIA | 14.3 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | NE | 14.2 | 16.6 | (2.5) |
| CJ Anderson | RB | DEN | TB | 14.1 | 12.2 | 1.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | SF | 14.1 | 25.7 | (11.6) |
| Brandon Marshall | WR | NYJ | SEA | 14.0 | 18.9 | (4.9) |
| Steve Smith | WR | BAL | OAK | 14.0 | 28.1 | (14.1) |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | SD | NO | 13.9 | 24.9 | (11.0) |
| Isaiah Crowell | RB | CLE | WAS | 13.8 | 26.2 | (12.4) |
| Doug Baldwin | WR | SEA | NYJ | 13.8 | 9.4 | 4.4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | TEN | 13.7 | 1.4 | 12.3 |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | DEN | 13.6 | 10.9 | 2.7 |
| Anquan Boldin | WR | DET | CHI | 13.6 | 9.1 | 4.5 |
| Allen Hurns | WR | JAX | IND | 13.5 | 12.7 | 0.8 |
| Mike Wallace | WR | BAL | OAK | 13.5 | 10.7 | 2.8 |
| TJ Yeldon | RB | JAX | IND | 13.5 | 15.7 | (2.2) |
| Pierre Garcon | WR | WAS | CLE | 13.4 | 7.9 | 5.5 |
| Coby Fleener | TE | NO | SD | 13.3 | 4.9 | 8.4 |
| Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | LA | 13.3 | 12.6 | 0.7 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | WAS | CLE | 13.1 | 4.1 | 9.0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | SEA | 13.0 | 11.9 | 1.1 |
| Julian Edelman | WR | NE | BUF | 12.9 | 2.7 | 10.2 |
| Odell Beckham Jr | WR | NYG | MIN | 12.9 | 5.3 | 7.6 |
| Travis Benjamin | WR | SD | NO | 12.8 | 7.8 | 5.0 |
| Devonta Freeman | RB | ATL | CAR | 12.8 | 14.4 | (1.6) |
| Jason Witten | TE | DAL | SF | 12.7 | 11.7 | 1.0 |
| Jordan Reed | TE | WAS | CLE | 12.7 | 28.3 | (15.6) |
| Carlos Hyde | RB | SF | DAL | 12.6 | 14.9 | (2.3) |
| Spencer Ware | RB | KC | PIT | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.0 |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | CIN | MIA | 12.6 | 8.4 | 4.2 |
| Duke Johnson | RB | CLE | WAS | 12.5 | 12.6 | (0.1) |
| Jimmy Graham | TE | SEA | NYJ | 12.4 | 20.3 | (7.9) |
| TY Hilton | WR | IND | JAX | 12.4 | 17.2 | (4.8) |
| Devante Parker | WR | MIA | CIN | 12.3 | 4.0 | 8.3 |
| Lamar Miller | RB | HOU | TEN | 12.2 | 13.8 | (1.6) |
| Michael Thomas | WR | NO | SD | 11.9 | 14.4 | (2.5) |
| Theo Riddick | RB | DET | CHI | 11.9 | 9.8 | 2.1 |
| Gary Barnidge | TE | CLE | WAS | 11.8 | 12.7 | (0.9) |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | PIT | 11.8 | 13.3 | (1.5) |
| Golden Tate | WR | DET | CHI | 11.8 | 3.1 | 8.7 |
| DeAngelo Williams | RB | PIT | KC | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 |
| Eddie Royal | WR | CHI | DET | 11.7 | 27.1 | (15.4) |
| Terrance Williams | WR | DAL | SF | 11.7 | 14.4 | (2.7) |
| LeGarrette Blount | RB | NE | BUF | 11.7 | 8.8 | 2.9 |
| Frank Gore | RB | IND | JAX | 11.6 | 20.5 | (8.9) |
| John Brown | WR | ARI | LA | 11.5 | 27.4 | (15.9) |
| Cole Beasley | WR | DAL | SF | 11.5 | 10.3 | 1.2 |
| Devin Funchess | WR | CAR | ATL | 11.4 | 7.6 | 3.8 |
| Zach Miller | TE | CHI | DET | 11.3 | 12.1 | (0.8) |
| Chris Johnson | RB | ARI | LA | 11.3 | 3.4 | 7.9 |
| Case Keenum | QB | LA | ARI | 11.1 | 19.0 | (8.0) |
| Chris Ivory | RB | JAX | IND | 11.0 | 2.9 | 8.1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | NE | BUF | 11.0 | 2.1 | 8.9 |
| Todd Gurley | RB | LA | ARI | 10.9 | 13.2 | (2.3) |
| Marqise Lee | WR | JAX | IND | 10.9 | 6.8 | 4.1 |
| Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | TEN | 10.9 | 17.6 | (6.6) |
| Le'Veon Bell | RB | PIT | KC | 10.8 | 25.8 | (15.0) |
| Tevin Coleman | RB | ATL | CAR | 10.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 |
| Torrey Smith | WR | SF | DAL | 10.6 | 1.3 | 9.3 |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | HOU | 10.5 | 9.1 | 1.4 |
| Dennis Pitta | TE | BAL | OAK | 10.5 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | NYG | 10.4 | 9.6 | 0.8 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | RB | CAR | ATL | 10.4 | 18.2 | (7.8) |
| Brandon Coleman | WR | NO | SD | 10.4 | 3.7 | 6.7 |
| Martellus Bennett | TE | NE | BUF | 10.4 | 18.9 | (8.5) |
| Matt Jones | RB | WAS | CLE | 10.3 | 24.8 | (14.5) |
| Alfred Morris | RB | DAL | SF | 10.3 | 3.4 | 6.9 |
| Kevin White | WR | CHI | DET | 10.3 | 11.5 | (1.2) |
| Andrew Hawkins | WR | CLE | WAS | 10.2 | 5.8 | 4.4 |
| Christine Michael | RB | SEA | NYJ | 10.1 | 20.0 | (9.9) |
| Kenny Stills | WR | MIA | CIN | 10.1 | 14.4 | (4.3) |
| Terrance West | RB | BAL | OAK | 10.0 | 20.3 | (10.3) |
| Tyrell Williams | WR | SD | NO | 9.9 | 9.0 | 0.9 |
| Ted Ginn | WR | CAR | ATL | 9.9 | 3.4 | 6.5 |
| Eric Ebron | TE | DET | CHI | 9.8 | 8.2 | 1.6 |
| Michael Crabtree | WR | OAK | BAL | 9.8 | 33.8 | (24.0) |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | RB | CAR | ATL | 9.8 | 1.2 | 8.6 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | OAK | BAL | 9.7 | 9.8 | (0.1) |
| Kamar Aiken | WR | BAL | OAK | 9.7 | 3.9 | 5.8 |
| Will Fuller | WR | HOU | TEN | 9.6 | 27.1 | (17.5) |
| Andre Ellington | RB | ARI | LA | 9.5 | 1.4 | 8.1 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | MIA | 9.4 | 2.0 | 7.4 |
| Corey Brown | WR | CAR | ATL | 9.4 | 15.8 | (6.4) |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE | MIN | NYG | 9.2 | 16.5 | (7.3) |
| Tim Hightower | RB | NO | SD | 9.1 | 1.1 | 8.0 |
| Vernon Davis | TE | WAS | CLE | 8.9 | 1.8 | 7.1 |
| Jordan Howard | RB | CHI | DET | 8.6 | 19.2 | (10.6) |
| Latavius Murray | RB | OAK | BAL | 8.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| Tavon Austin | WR | LA | ARI | 8.5 | 2.8 | 5.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | NE | BUF | 8.5 | 9.5 | (1.0) |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | NYG | MIN | 8.4 | 7.0 | 1.4 |
| Marcedes Lewis | TE | JAX | IND | 8.3 | 2.2 | 6.1 |
| Dexter McCluster | RB | SD | NO | 8.3 | 3.1 | 5.2 |
| Chris Thompson | RB | WAS | CLE | 8.2 | 12.0 | (3.8) |
| Darren Fells | TE | ARI | LA | 8.1 | 2.7 | 5.4 |
| Mohamed Sanu | WR | ATL | CAR | 8.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| Charles Sims | RB | TB | DEN | 8.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Dontrelle Inman | WR | SD | NO | 8.0 | 28.0 | (20.0) |
| Robert Woods | WR | BUF | NE | 7.9 | 15.9 | (8.0) |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | NYJ | 7.9 | 2.3 | 5.6 |
| Tyler Kroft | TE | CIN | MIA | 7.7 | 0.0 | 7.7 |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | TB | DEN | 7.6 | 6.8 | 0.8 |
| Rashad Greene | WR | JAX | IND | 7.6 | 1.8 | 5.8 |
| Jeremy Kerley | WR | SF | DAL | 7.5 | 20.8 | (13.3) |
| Chris Conley | WR | KC | PIT | 7.5 | 13.0 | (5.5) |
| Charles Clay | TE | BUF | NE | 7.5 | 9.7 | (2.2) |
| Victor Cruz | WR | NYG | MIN | 7.3 | 10.0 | (2.7) |
| Kenny Britt | WR | LA | ARI | 7.1 | 12.2 | (5.1) |
| Jermaine Kearse | WR | SEA | NYJ | 7.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 |
| Crockett Gillmore | TE | BAL | OAK | 7.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| Albert Wilson | WR | KC | PIT | 6.9 | 10.2 | (3.3) |
| Damien Williams | RB | MIA | CIN | 6.9 | 2.5 | 4.4 |
| Jacob Tamme | TE | ATL | CAR | 6.9 | 8.3 | (1.4) |
| CJ Uzomah | TE | CIN | MIA | 6.9 | 8.5 | (1.6) |
| Bilal Powell | RB | NYJ | SEA | 6.8 | 14.0 | (7.2) |
| Jay Ajayi | RB | MIA | CIN | 6.8 | 6.6 | 0.2 |
| Jordan Norwood | WR | DEN | TB | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| Ed Dickson | TE | CAR | ATL | 6.8 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| Brice Butler | WR | DAL | SF | 6.8 | 15.1 | (8.3) |
| Lance Dunbar | RB | DAL | SF | 6.6 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | MIA | CIN | 6.6 | 1.5 | 5.1 |
| Breshad Perriman | WR | BAL | OAK | 6.5 | 5.4 | 1.1 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | SD | NO | 6.4 | 16.1 | (9.7) |
| Andre Johnson | WR | TEN | HOU | 6.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | WR | NYJ | SEA | 6.2 | 12.0 | (5.8) |
| James White | RB | NE | BUF | 6.1 | 11.2 | (5.1) |
| Quinton Patton | WR | SF | DAL | 6.1 | 2.3 | 3.8 |
| Dion Sims | TE | MIA | CIN | 6.0 | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| Isaiah Pead | RB | MIA | CIN | 5.9 | 2.1 | 3.8 |
| Marquise Goodwin | WR | BUF | NE | 5.8 | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| James Wright | WR | CIN | MIA | 5.8 | 0.0 | 5.8 |
| Shaun Draughn | RB | SF | DAL | 5.8 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
| Dwayne Allen | TE | IND | JAX | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| Dwayne Washington | RB | DET | CHI | 5.7 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Paul Richardson | WR | SEA | NYJ | 5.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| Devontae Booker | RB | DEN | TB | 5.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Cameron Meredith | WR | CHI | DET | 5.6 | 6.8 | (1.2) |
| Seth Roberts | WR | OAK | BAL | 5.4 | 10.2 | (4.8) |
| Niles Paul | TE | WAS | CLE | 5.4 | 0.0 | 5.4 |
| Demetrius Harris | TE | KC | PIT | 5.3 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Logan Paulsen | TE | WAS | DET | 5.2 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| Adam Humphries | WR | TB | DEN | 5.0 | 1.4 | 3.6 |
| Phillip Dorsett | WR | IND | JAX | 4.9 | 13.7 | (8.8) |
| Jaelen Strong | WR | HOU | TEN | 4.9 | 8.1 | (3.2) |
| Ryan Griffin | TE | HOU | TEN | 4.6 | 8.4 | (3.8) |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | NYG | 4.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 |
| Lance Kendricks | TE | LA | ARI | 4.6 | 10.2 | (5.6) |
| Alfred Blue | RB | HOU | TEN | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| Zach Zenner | RB | DET | CHI | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.1 |
| Jack Doyle | TE | IND | JAX | 4.5 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Garrett Celek | TE | SF | DAL | 4.4 | 12.9 | (8.5) |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | MIN | NYG | 4.2 | 18.5 | (14.3) |
| Cameron Brate | TE | TB | DEN | 4.0 | 11.7 | (7.7) |
| Kapri Bibbs | RB | DEN | TB | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Tajae Sharpe | WR | TEN | HOU | 3.9 | 3.5 | 0.4 |
| Matt Asiata | RB | MIN | NYG | 3.9 | 9.8 | (5.9) |
| Brian Quick | WR | LA | ARI | 3.9 | 20.9 | (17.0) |
| Clive Walford | TE | OAK | BAL | 3.8 | 4.3 | (0.5) |
| Brandon Bolden | RB | NE | BUF | 3.8 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| Mike Gillislee | RB | BUF | NE | 3.7 | 5.3 | (1.6) |
| Jalen Richard | RB | OAK | BAL | 3.4 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| Josh Ferguson | RB | IND | JAX | 3.4 | 10.1 | (6.7) |
| Austin Hooper | TE | ATL | CAR | 3.4 | 11.2 | (7.8) |
| Robert Turbin | RB | IND | JAX | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Will Tye | TE | NYG | MIN | 3.0 | 8.3 | (5.3) |
| Charles Johnson | WR | MIN | NYG | 2.9 | 9.0 | (6.1) |
| Rishard Matthews | WR | TEN | HOU | 2.5 | 10.2 | (7.7) |
| Deandre Washington | RB | OAK | BAL | 2.4 | 6.6 | (4.2) |
| CJ Fiedorowicz | TE | HOU | TEN | 2.2 | 14.8 | (12.6) |
| Sammie Coates | WR | PIT | KC | 2.0 | 13.8 | (11.8) |
| Bobby Rainey | RB | NYG | MIN | 1.9 | 13.5 | (11.6) |
| Lee Smith | TE | OAK | BAL | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Orleans Darkwa | RB | NYG | MIN | 1.6 | 10.8 | (9.2) |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | RB | TB | DEN | 1.3 | 3.9 | (2.6) |
| Jesse James | TE | PIT | KC | 1.3 | 9.5 | (8.2) |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | HOU | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Rhett Ellison | TE | MIN | NYG | 1.2 | 1.2 | (0.0) |
| Anthony Fasano | TE | TEN | HOU | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Jace Amaro | TE | TEN | HOU | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | TE | TEN | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Image Source
Tough week, but your favorite lineup is getting much closer to the right composition of players needed. The model unfortunately won't do well til later in the season, but the projections should continue to improve.
I'll post a GPP strategy blog this week, might give you a few ideas to work with.
Thanks for the feedback! I do really need to improve on my lineup structuring, especially with which types of lineups to run with for optimal cash game plays, so I look forward to the future post!
Is it possible that your projection have problem with the most variance dependant variable wich is TD reception/Rush TD? Except for those games of the decades (like Julio's).
I'm juste curious, i'm not that great at maths :P
It is quite possible, though those are accounted for in my multiple linear model I use to help adjust 75th quantile metrics. I utilize a rolling average of targets, touchdowns, and red zone events to help make next week projections. I just think I have bad sample sizes, and super high variance so far. I am trying to keep an eye out for these events though, and am constantly looking for ways to continue to tweak!