NOP crushed by like 20. This is shaping up just like SAS series. It’s almost like this GSW team is really good or something!
We forgot in our haste to say bet size, it was 1.0%. We REALLY wanted to double that, but our wrongness in the SAS series prevented it.
We will likely reverse course based on this game— and not trust our process due to GSW playoffs play being a LOT better than their regular season play.
A few details on this lopsided win by GSW:
#1 Foul Trouble for one of NOP's big 3: Jrue Holiday. This cut his minutes down considerably, and thus affected the score. Ref bias? We think there might have been a little, but probably just normal hometown favoring, not anything clandestine.
#2 Shooting% It's always hard to tell if a team just shot better/worse, or the defense was the cause, and this game is no exception. GSW shot VERY well from 3, whereas NOP did not. This would account for about 8 points if equalized, still not enough to make our pick correct, but a lot closer to accurate.
#3 Bench Bench BENCH!
We mentioned this risk factor, and boy did it come true. Suddenly Looney, Quinn Cook, and even Shaun Livingston (who always seems to be able to win a playoff game all by himself once in awhile) just looked dominant over Ian Clark, Darius Miller and Solomon Hill. Where the heck does NO get these guys?!?!
Overall, would say we got this one wrong for reason #3 mostly, but also bc our system doesn't account for "luffing" during the regular season (isn't that a sailing term?). The teams who could've luffed this year during regular season were the teams who are almost automatic for the playoffs-- GSW and Cleveland.
Very hard to get those games right, so we keep the bet sizes small with those games. (and then Cleveland we also keep them even smaller due to the tendency for extreme ref bias-- like Sabonis and Myles Turner fouling out of a frigging game 7!????? bc who wants to really see Toronto-vs-Pacers series?)
I believe out of all the major sports, NBA has the largest home town bias. There are so many 50/50 calls that happen in a basketball game, and they almost always will lean towards the home crowd. I would really like this series to be close, Jrue Holiday will need to out play Klay Thompson for that too happen (easier said than done)