Jameis Winston is out this week, and although Ryan Fitzmagic is a capable NFL backup, he's not going to be nearly as effective as Winston would have been. Add in the fact that the TB offense was already having issues even with Winston under center, it's tough to see TB putting up a ton of points, even against an exploitable Jets passing defense.
Meanwhile, last week the Jets hung 34 on a bend-but-don't-break Bills defense that doesn't generally give up a ton of points. Tampa's defense is one of the worst in the league this season, which bodes well for the Jets offense, even though Forte is out.
I'm scared of touching the total in this one as I see the Jets putting up a boatload of points. I'll just take the Jets with the soft -2.5 spread.