When the rental market got started, many of the whales decided to dip a toe in. I think they knew that the full force of their portfolios going in the market would just smother it.
Over the past few days, we are seeing two things happening. First, the whales are starting to get in a little past their toefins.
Second, there are tons of new accounts coming in that are just buying walls of inventory and dropping it on the markets at ridiculously low prices.
It's a wake up call to something I've actually been awake to for a while now but many people still don't believe.
Even with all of the new people in splinterlands and the massive price increases, Splinterlands still has an overcapacity of cards that would probably take another 5x new accounts from here to fill.
While some cards have become scarce, even cards I've pointed to over and over again for their scarcity like Furious Chicken which now only has 1 for every 7 accounts and is probably the most popular card played, still has over 2100 of them sitting dormant on the rental market while the price that shot all the way to $50 is now back down to $27 because a few hundred onto the market.
Most cards in Splinterlands are just sitting dormant in whale accounts who can't do anything with them because a few units crush prices on the sales markets (and therefore the sales momeuntum) and most rental markets are just holding on under the huge amount of inventory that's already there.
Even Llamakron's price has been pushed way down from where it was by just a little bit more inventory rolling onto the rental markets.
And if you're thinking this is good for the markets, because it brings in more buyers, you'd be wrong. Increasing prices brings in more buyers. People don't buy assets that are dropping in price. Even in games. Scarcity drives growth and the best sign of scarcity for our tiny human minds is seeing prices rise.
Take a look at this chart of recent sales since we've seen this inventory dump start up a few days ago. It peaked and right at that peak people came running in to sell new (old) inventory from their old accounts and look what's happened card sales since. Both the amount of cards and the dollar amounts are dropping.
I say this only because there are a lot of people out there lobbying for Chaos Legeon to have 10x the cards Untamed had because they see prices as too high. But high prices cause higher prices. And lower prices cause crashes and loss of interest. Scarcity breeds growth. Over-abundance creates disinterest.
Well, at this growth rate we will see 5x users by the end of the year. That will do its trick to spread out those cards with massive supply.
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I saw those projections and it would be incredible if it happens but I think it would take that just to get to a point of balanced. The fact that I don't think the devs ever really saw this kind of growth happening and there is still that much excess capacity means to me that they waaaay overshot in the past and that is probably the very thing that caused splinterlands to sort of simmer in the background for years while NFT's were exploding.
I just see so many people who think the game is stretched beyond reason and we need to 10x untamed release with CL. And I just think that could be disastrous to maintaining the momentum they have right now.
I feel like you are correct but I do think there is nothing that can stop at least another 500,000 new players by the end of the year. Splinterlands managed to reach a critical mass.
Not sure how it will effect the market of cards because I'm a little too new to understand the card markets but I know there will be a lot more new players for at least a few more months
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I'm sure you're right and a lot more people are coming in. But based on what I'm seeing right now, it's going to take 1 million active accounts to create an ecosystem big enough to deal with the current level of cards sitting dormant because we've been so oversupplied by past releases. I just don't want to see them come in and triple or quadruple the card supply because we're growing and end up shutting down that growth.
Right now our saving grace is that SPS airdrop the newly minted splintermillionaires are collecting to incentivize them not to start to sell off their massive inventories since right now the rental market isn't big enough to absorb them and there aren't enough buyers to keep the prices up if they started dumping. So millionaires on paper but can't do anything with it but collect SPS. Which they will sell for income and hold prices down.
I think we use this year to build up enough people to take on this overcapacity so when the SPS drop ends the early adopters splintermillionaires can make a fair income from their assets instead of selling them. We can do that as long as we don't go nuts with the CL drop.
PS: Just checking to see if this works since I just bought a bunch of !PIZZA !BEER and !WINE
Cool. I received the wine and pizza. I think you are right and the airdrop is the key to maintaining things. Im kind of targeting 30 days before the airdrop ends as a point where things could get crazy. Actually, once the chaos drops become really clear things will get a little nuts. Not sure how I'll play it.
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I've been thinking the exact same thing. 30 days before, things are going to get quite weird as people start positioning themselves for what's coming. I wonder what else the team will have in store for that time period to keep the hype up. This really is a great team if they'd just cool it with the supply lol
It looks like my beer orders didn't go through yet but glad the wine and pizza came through.
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there is definitely an overcapacity right now, we dropped from 500k users to 300k and there are 15m CL packs, it's going to be a difficult year unless we see another surge of players coming in but by then we'd only be returning to pre-CL price range balancing everything out