I still think it's a safe assumption to make that money held in an exchange is a strong indicator for the desire to exchange steem related value to some other token of value.
At some point perhaps, but when it comes down to it, someone is still owning it either way. What it means most likely is that there is increased interest in shorter-term speculative owning as opposed to longer-term owning.
but isn't change in ownership what impacts price?
Sure, but there isn't an clear connection between exchange flows and price. There may be some connections, under some circumstances, with asterisks. You pointed this out as well!