This post is a weekly, evolving post, analysing Steem(it) by numbers and deducing trends of interest for this project moving forward. It has been an interesting week, there has been a marked increase in high profile sign-ups following on from last week, and on a subjective basis, quality content is coming 'thick and fast'.
There has been some interesting numbers that have come out of this week analysis. Week 2 had the implementation of the Reputation System which (I believed) affected results. Week 3 has had a User Interface update, which I don't believe will impact numbers in anyway, so these numbers should give us a true reflection of Steem(it) evolution, albeit over a very short period of time.
Week 3 Highlights:
- Top 100 Biggest Steem Power Accounts are experiencing Falling Steem Power Control:
The numbers on this can be viewed at the bottom of this of my Excel Screen Shots. Depending on which way you look at it, the numbers vary, however by both measures, Steem Power Control of the Top100 accounts has fallen either 0.35% or 0.52%. This is in line with previous analysis I have done which can be found here - % Steem Dollar to Steem Market Cap Only Increased 0.1% This week:
One concern I have heard many user raise is, in a market of falling Steem Value, the amount of Steem Dollars (which is essential debt) would increase dramatically against the total value of Steem. Steem price fell 25% this week, however this metric did not rise significantly - User Base swells
Week on Week 7 days active users has increased over 50%. That's serious growth - Votes fall 58%
Not sure what has happened here. User base has swelled, but total activity on Curation has fallen by roughly the same amount. This will be a statistic to follow over the coming weeks. Could it be that Steemit's users base was more selective with their votes, or, less engaged this week...Maybe we will be calling this the Olympic's Effect in a few week times... EDIT: @rainman pointed out an update in client by the witnesses this week have prevented bots from vote spamming. - Post Week on Week up 25%
This makes sense, and lends credence to the increasing user base numbers - Replies Fall 17% Week on Week
Again, an interesting statistic, and one which suggests a less engaged user base this week. It will be interesting to see these numbers over the coming weeks...
EDIT: this is likely down to the demise of posting bots. With thanks to @jl777
You can see last weeks numbers as Week 1, Week2 and this weeks numbers as Week 3. The Data was captured around 3-4pm on both days (Saturday). The % Change Week on Week is the best reflection of how Steem(it) is evolving, and has changed over the relatively short period period of time. For this week, we need to pay attention to column '% Change Week2 on Week3'
Top 100 Accounts Analysis
I will work on these Statistics over the coming week to get this information as useful and relevant as possible. Feel free to make suggestions of changes, or additions, and I will do my utmost to include them in the follow edition next Saturday.
Happy to discuss any of my findings with anyone interested.
I am heading out for the evening (On GMT London Time) But I will reply to any queries or questions when I get home a little later.
Have a great evening all!!!!!
Nice post. It is always interesting to follow this kind of data.
I don't understand why everyone is still worrying about the price of STEEM so much. Unless people are speculating on the price it doesn't really matter that much.
A lower price actually makes it better for adoption and distribution and makes it easier for new people to power up.
The whole SBD/dollar peg ensures that payouts don't actually fall in value and the amount of SP that people gain goes up when the Steem value goes down. The whole system is designed to keep the Steem price low and these issues are discussed in the whitepaper.
I suspect the trend in falling votes and comments is due to a lot more new people being attracted by the idea of making a quick buck and doing a "run and gun" type of post where they just post and leave.
There may also be a long term trend with people not really feeling that they get much of a reward out of curation. This may partly be down to voting at the wrong time or on big money posts when the rewards are likely to be a lot less than they would be for curating new and unique posts.
Most people don't seem to be informed or interested in reading up on the basics of how all this works so it should perhaps not be all that surprising.
Either way we need to find ways to make curation and commenting more attractive to people.
Other than raising curation rewards or limiting posting without curation I can't really think of a way to do this.
Perhaps other people have suggestions?
When the $ value of STEEM falls, so do payout amounts. Rewards are essentially a fixed amount of STEEM, some of which is converted to SBD. So we'll be seeing dramatically lower payouts in the coming week as the STEEM bubble deflates, I suspect.
My hypothesis for the falling votes is because of the feed. I now really only look at my feed for things to vote on. I've cut way back on going through the new, active...etc. threads.
Interesting take @mctiller So, making it easier for users to find the content they like has reduced their ability to find other material... Seems to make sense...
I still look at the other threads, but definately a lot less. If Steemit did something, like Facebook does, where when you upvote something, since I'm following you, maybe I get a notice on my dashboard. That would be another way to find new posts.
Yeah something along those lines, I think would help alot...
Even as a newbie I find your comment useful. Mostly the curation about steemit because i'm still trying to learn but I also hit the search to find something I like. I just don't see my account doing anything even though I upvote and comment 10 times a day(?). Again I'm new so it will all come together..
That's possible. I suspect people are still looking at the trending posts though. Maybe there could be a feature that recommends posts similar to trending posts to get more attention to new posts?
That would work as well. If you liked" " then maybe you will like..." "
Which is what Amazon does.
new users vote much less than established ones. so during a userbase spike, the voting percentage would be lower. the shrinkage in absolute terms could be due to a lot more engagement in comments. if you are actively commenting maybe less likely to be curating? stats on comments would be interesting
A 58% drop in absolute voting seems pretty surprising. Are people shutting down tgeir curation bots? Are minnows getting discouraged that they can't earn curation rewards (due to rounding effects)?
The huge spike in voting was due to bots vote spamming. It was prevented with a client update by the witnesses hence the drop off.
Thanks @rainman I will make an EDIT
I think a lot of bots are gone :) I haven't seen a few bots which have vote/comment a lot.
Yeah, the reputation system cleared out all the commenting bots. Voting bots are alive and well, though. Just ask @jl777 - he has a bot that's voting with his main account.
Replies = Comments. Apologise for not making that clear. Also fell this week...
i figured as much, but how are you counting a reply/comment?
I would use a filter just based on length to get rid of most of the bot spam. counting all of them will contaminate the data and skew results. with the bot voting being neutered, we can see a big drop in bot spam, which would appear as much less comments unless you filter out the likely bot comments
Think you've got it there. My numbers are gross numbers off steemle.com
I have noticed a big fall in spam bots. I will add an EDIT in...
Active users increase 50%, voting falls 58% ......... interesting.
Very!!! I am interested to see how this develops over the next few weeks. Might just be a blip, or changing user behaviour... Who Know's...Time will tell...
Like the name, considering where your posting ;)
I think that is something that will drastically change now with vote weighting. :)
Odd that engagement would be falling whilst sign-ups are going through the roof. Two guesses off the top of my head:
If anyone has any other guesses, please respond.
@hisnameisollie : Thanks for the work!
I'm new, and I'm still learning the ropes and only commenting when I have something to contribute. It might just be a period of people figuring out the site, and only then becoming more engaged with other users. In the meantime, the ratio between number of sign-ups and comments from more experienced users is shifting.
Have lots of fun in the evening :)
Thanks for the stats. I always liked the numbers :)
About decreasing the number of votes - what about bots and their votes? Are these counted? I have a feeling that there is far less voting by bots as it was before...
I guess the only way to explain the lowered curation and replies is that, with more users here. Valuable contents gets diluted, let's face it. The topic spectrum here is getting wider and wider. Every steemians here look at valuable contents based on their own judgement. And I guess this should be the norm in the near future. Its a good thing though, we're bringing more variety of content creators and users here, and not just cryptocurrency fans whom most of us only upvotes only coin news. Facebook should be worried indeed if this momentum keeps up, lol. Good work on the stats @hisnameisolllie
One thing i realised was the slight increase in my SP for this week even though I received no rewards as of now for this week. Didn't know that SP increases when the STEEM value drops, thanks for clearing up my small doubt @thecryptofiend. If that's the case, will my SP also decrease in the event STEEM goes back to the inflated price?
You receive 'interest' for holding Steem Power. At the moment this is around 0.9% per day, it will eventually fall to 0.18% per day..
Does anyone know why the Steem price is falling? I think voting and engagement is entirely down to whether people feel they can make money from it.
Can we see what part of overall day reward goes to the whales? Maybe some average 'reward per SP' coefficient.
I will have a look into this. From the numbers above, on a %/net basis they are getting less than everyone else.
Thank you for taking the time to do this. Keep up the good work!
Your welcome @jennamarbles
Yes. I really appreciate and look forward to this :)
Great stats. Thanks. We are moving forward
Very nice analysis, keep it up !! Got my Upvote for what it's worth!
awesome statistic
Thanks. Let me know if you can see any additions you would like...
Hey Ollie, where did you get the values of Steem/USD$ from? Is there an active market for that?
No market I know of. I just multiplied the Steem/BTC price by BTC/USD price
Interesting post and interesting statistics...
Hey hisnameisolllie,
thank you much for doing this work. Much upvote is not worth much but it shows my respect to you. I would need to do the research on my own, you helped me much.
Thank you
I have been voting on less posts and following more so i can only vote on 1-3 post each day. I want the best posts to get a higher reward, and revisit other high quality posts over the next days. Not sure if this is the best strategy because inthought i saw someone say you only get curation points if you vote for something within the firat 30 minutes it has been posted.
Bloody good write up, thanks for all the work you put in!
Thanks @hisnameisollie . I feel since the Bitfinex hack that most of the confidence with "crypto concepts" has diminished and many claims of "Ponzi" are still float in the air. Basically the market is "spoked" Time to accumulate .
Hello @hisnameisolllie,
Thanks for your great work!
Can you tell me if this is accurate?
https://steemit.com/steemit/@kurtbeil/average-steem-power-how-do-you-compare-what-are-you-earning-from-your-curation-effort
Thank you!
This is awesome - I will 'follow' to keep up with the numbers and your opinion/analysis. I believe the 50% rise in users. I am a newbie and watch the numbers closely because i'm still trying to learn the system. My first take is without buying steem to get in it's like watching paint dry (talking about your account $$ moving up and getting votes for your comments). Do you agree? Any quick tips for a newbie?