Steem prediction: Steem will drop below $0.01 by December.

in #steem8 years ago (edited)

Steem is crashing.  Whatever support people thought there was at $0.20 was minuscule compared to overwhelming amount of Steem looking to be sold (millions of liquid steem, and hundreds of million SP locked steem).  At the moment I think the only people putting money into steem are well wishers who want to see the platform do well.  They are the active users.  This place is going to get mighty lonely mighty quickly because people are going to bail.  

First your reward gets cut down to 3/4 cause curation goes away, and then it gets divided by five 7 because steem is only worth $0.20 $0.14.  So now your well written article that didn't have any whales vote on it goes down to less than $0.01 USD.  That picture only gets more grim when steem drops lower, and that's the main reason why people will leave.

How many rants did you read at $5 steem when people actually left?  Probably not many because even those rants were probably worth $10USD.  Now, you can't make any money.  Now you leave the community.  That's a double whammy because the people most likely to buy steem are the ones that like this place and use it and want to support it.  So, not only did you lose an author but you lost a potential investor, and that means that there is an even bigger amount of pressure on the sell column versus the diminishing buy column.

This is a fast race to the bottom people.  You'll see how many people really believe in steem by the new year because their posts are going to be worth absolutely nothing financially.

So, short picture: steem is crashing (at an accelerated rate), people are leaving, that makes steem crash faster, and that makes people leave faster.  This is a vicious downward spiral.

Oh, and what do Ned and Dan have to say about this?

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I find more important to focus on the social media rather than the financial aspect of steem, it's still a young platform. No matter what ressources are displayed or transferred on the platform I think that the base of Steem is the community, not the money. At first my reason to be here was both to discuss with other steemers and share my knowledge about diversified subjects that I love or find interesting. I want to interact, but I don't feel like I really want to do it if all my surrounding keep talking about money, blockchain,etc. which doesn't interest me at all. I know really little about the blockchain, but I'm reflecting how a lot of people would react on their arrival here. They (those who make steem live) will not get by themselves on Steem if it keep working the same way. You have to bring them here with something else than money, if it's what bought them here, they will leave.

I agree with you

I wonder if the recent rise in Bitcoin has anything to do with the current selling. Maybe people are selling Steem for Bitcoin.

Steemit isn't going anywhere unless the witnesses abandon it.
The way steem inflates it's price should be low.
I've been over at minds.com and their halls are pretty empty, too, but they only give points, that you can buy from accounts if they give up their banking info.
We will plod along until the word of mouth gets out that you can transfer money for a fraction of what wells fargo or western union charges.
So, don't give up just yet, simply don't buy until it gets to a nickel.

If people leave then rewards could go up as they are spread less thinly.

We would be better off if the professional writers left and left the rewards to causal writers and posters. Huge numbers of people would be happy with occasional $1 -$5 post. While writers want to earn $100 or more a week.

So I think there may be a self correcting mechanism here.

Not a chance

Steem is a scam. Some people put so much money in it.. I've even read an article by some guy who quit his day job in order to write for Steemit full time.

This is sad, Ned and whatever's-his-name are probably laughing right now. Their plan probably went like 10x better than they expected. They even got people to pay to promote steemit on steemit itself. Such absurd nonsense you don't see everyday.

Most whales were probably those in the know and I don't see articles by Charlie Shrem, whoever he was, writing shit about his prison life and getting like a thousand bucks per article. I don't see those articles anymore. That was shady, guys.

People won't leave because of sunk cost. That's a vicious concept, read about it. Don't get scammed again.

That said, reading the trending section shows the money is much better spread than it used to be. Maybe it's not so bad after all. There's much jealousy in the air.

It's not jealousy, it's a fact. This is a situation denounced by several months reputations 60+. That's why were creating Curie Project, Robin Hood, Steem-trail, etc ..

aggroed Do you think they could do a hard fork and stop creating more steem if they wanted .