The STEEM price is slightly down for the week on low volume, currently resting on recent support levels.
Since last week’s look at prices, STEEM has been in a slight downtrend in terms of both Bitcoin and Dollars. Let’s look at the long-term chart first.
With current STEEM/BTC prices in the 0.000168 – 0.000169 BTC range, the price is sitting right on recent support and at the bottom of the support range that has been a support/resistance line on several occasions dating back to November. Below here, there is long-term support around 0.00015 BTC and the all-time lows around 0.000136 BTC.
The three week chart shows the recent uptrend from the last support levels around 0.00015 BTC. We then had the head-and-shoulders pattern that started its jump at ~0.000169 BTC (blue line), which is where prices are currently. The uptrend line has also been breached as of three days ago. If current prices cannot hold at this level, we may see STEEM revisit 0.00015 BTC.
From the head-and-shoulders pattern last week, we can see a downtrend line (red) that essentially runs off of the right shoulder (black circle). Other than a couple of short breaks of the neckline (blue), the price has been unable to break above it and hold.
Taking a look at the STEEM/Dollar chart, we see a double-bottom (black circle) that took place on January 12th and January 13th at a hair under $0.13 on both days. This began the recent uptrend, but that line has been broken as of yesterday.
The order book on Poloniex is showing heavy selling just above current prices, with a 17+ BTC sell order at 0.000172. Sell orders stack up quicker than buy orders at current STEEM/BTC prices.
Power down statistics this week from Steemdb.com show a continued reduction in divesting. Liquid STEEM has increased by another ~1.3 million, or just over 4% of the total liquid supply. Total vested STEEM has fallen by approximately 800,000. Liquid STEEM now represents ~13.7% of the total supply, compared to ~13.2% last week.
Based on the recent price action and sell orders, we may likely see STEEM/Dollar prices fall back below $0.15 and possibly reach the ~$0.13 support line. If the STEEM/BTC price can hold at 0.000168 BTC and start moving upwards, it may be able to test the 0.000177 BTC range again and even revisit the 0.000186 level and try to break through resistance set by the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern and long-term price support/resistance lines.
My guess – which is just a guess, not trading advice – is that we’ll see the price move lower in the near-term. Please read my disclaimer below. Comments and critiques are welcomed.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional advisor and this info should not be used for trading. I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, but it would not be prudent to use this for transacting with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex and Coinmarketcap.com. Analysis is current as of approximately 3:20pm EST, January 24th, 2017.
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Thanks a bunch for the extra amount of analytical pointers, I really like it. Have a great day and namaste :)
Thanks for your write-up. Myself, I'm settling into the opinion that what we've got is an intriguing trading range: essentially sideways movement in Bitcoin terms.
It's intriguing for two reasons: first of all, a trading range makes for a good environment for range trading. Even if that huge >100,000 STEEM ask order does, uh, limit the possibilities so long as its live...
[BTW: good catch, finding that order.]
The more intriguing aspect comes with using the range to accumulate: to buy, HODL and use. Do you remember Monero dragging its tail along such a range for ~10 months - Oct. '15 to Aug '16? We might see a similar drag-along with STEEM.
If value keeps getting built under the hood, STEEM will be a heckuva long-term hold..
Yeah, definitely. If you have the appetite and resources to trade the STEEM range, then the last few months could have been a perfect time to increase holdings or to make a good chunk in profits. I've been debating on whether or not to get back into short-term trades, but I think it might be time to test it out again.
Either way, these ranges - even with mostly low volume - will likely serve as a bottom for prices as long as a majority of the stake is still tied up in SP and users are still participating in the platform. The longer we have current conditions, the more each of us can accumulate for the long-term, which could turn out to be quite lucrative if wider adoption of the platform and use of the currency ever occurs.
Thanks for your reply and for the agreement. The funny thing about ranges is they lull most folks into "I'll buy later" complacency. Confession: that was the case with me and Monero.
XMR makes for a good case study, because the eager buyers during those dull times were mainly Monero enthusiasts: either outright HODLers or de facto HODLers who were loaning out their XMRs on Polo's Lending market. Someone like me (admittedly a non-techie) who wasn't jazzed up by Monero's tech was far more likely to put off buying XMR when the time was ripe.
Heckuva real-time lesson: you do need (informed) faith to be a long-term holder of a cryptocurrency. Not only to buy it when it's out of favor but also to avoid selling it when it finally takes off. If I had taken this guy's advice when it was written - Monero under 25 cents? What the hell are you waiting for? - I would have snapped up several thousand...but knowing my limitations, I prolly would have sold 'em at a buck each.
It's a hard but very useful lesson to learn: you won't HODL and reap the big long-term gains unless you have underlying (and informed!) faith in the promise of the cryptocurrency. The only way to play the game is to be very selective at the outset, make sure that your psyche is compatible with the underlying vision, and then stick with it as an article of faith.
It's the guys who fit this template who've been richly rewarded by Monero. And, I aver, it's the folks who fit all three attributes of this template who will become rich with STEEM.
I agree with almost everything you wrote here. Just one thing to consider...
I don't think there's a problem with taking profits when the price rises, even if you think it could go higher. There's absolutely nothing wrong with making a 300% profit (buying at $0.25 and selling at $1.00). Trading - and even outright gambling - is all about percentages. After any possible expenses, pretty much any profit is good, but if you can clear 5% or more from a trade, you're in good shape.
I'm sure there will be a lot of people who are buying STEEM right now and plan to sell it if it breaks $0.20 or $0.30, or even $0.50. That's actually the smart play. Of course, you don't have to sell all of your holdings at those prices, but as long as you're making profits, it's all good in my book.
It all depends on your appetite for risk. If you have the money to park in an investment and wait it out (fully informed, of course), then you can make a lot of money doing it. Selling on the way up will always be a win. Where a lot of people run into trouble is trying to guess short-term fluctuations in order to increase profits on the way up. Most of the time, they miss their opportunities and actually end up with less profits than if they had just held and sold at their targets.
When you start making money on investments, it's hard to avoid believing that you'll continue making good decisions on every trade. I've been there before and lost some good money doing it. Fortunately, I learned my lesson after a few tries.
Good points; thanks for the reply.
For me, I use Steemit as a "side crypto bank account" - I send daily mining / trading profits here and power up. I do see long term value here. I dont use banks any more and keep my entire wealth in gold/crypto. Steemit may end up being a very valuable tool down the road in many different ways.
That's not a bad idea, but I would caution putting all of your investments into two sectors - one of them being cryptos.
However, I do believe that having a pegged instrument like SBDs makes it much easier and relatively "safer" (I use that term loosely) to hold cryptocurrencies. Not needing to cash out holdings in order to avoid or mitigate volatility is a huge plus and gives STEEM/SBD an advantage over pretty much all other cryptos.
Even if the social media aspect of this doesn't turn out well, I think the blockchain and SBDs offer a huge amount of potential and potential value.
I think that's probably a pretty successful strategy for psychologically distancing yourself for a long term hold.
I've become a bit more price sensitive lately powering down and accumulated more on top, I can see the benefit of viewing your holdings as savings.
Your tags are telling me that this is not a fullHQ article? Is that true?
On a serious note, I will take your advice and sell some Steem for a short-term. I was planning to do it anyway, so don't blame yourself if you are wrong. Also, I don't have enough to lose anything lol
I did not give advice! Why would you sell anyway? You could just buy SBDs and hold them until the STEEM price reaches a new floor, then swap back.
Well, that is what I wanted to say. I have to learn using the right words.
Thanks! Great insights as always!
Another nice analysis, always fun to read these. I also think we will be heading lower, got my next buy order set in the low 0.00015s. I am becoming more and more encouraged by the continuing range-bound action, although my accumulation rate has slowed as my finances are unfortunately a bit strained lately. The longer the price bounces around in this area, the more likely it is to be a solid floor, and the better the uptrend will be when we finally see a break out.
I plan to stay fully powered up until Steem reaches at least $1. After that, we'll see, may cash a bit out to pay some bills. It's always hard to judge the right moment to exit. I tried timing the tops in Ethereum for a while, but gave up on that and now I'm just a long-term ETH hodler come what may. Hmm, maybe it's worth selling some of my ETH and transferring the profits into Steem, now there's a thought...
The right moment for me is when I feel like I've made enough profit to be happy with. Getting a 5-7% return is better than most investments out there. At current prices, selling at $1.00 would be a fantastic profit. The only thing that will make a difference is how much you invest right now. If you buy 100 STEEM, the profit won't seem like much. If you have 1000, you'll be feeling pretty good. If you have 100,000, you'll be partying for a while.
Just don't get too greedy. Pick some targets where you'd be comfortable selling and stick with it. Hold onto some just in case the price goes higher. If you're sure that the long-term potential is high enough, sell at your targets, then buy on dips. Just be careful with that strategy, because you can lose your profits quickly if you don't stick to your targets or start panicking.
Good point, in the fast paced world of crypto it's easy to forget that 5% is a perfectly respectable return. Nothing wrong with aiming for singles instead of trying to hit a home run each time.
Trying to do this is what got me in trouble with ETH. I sold some of my stack on a price spike, intending to re-buy lower down. But the price kept rising and I panicked, bought back in higher with the net effect being I lost some of my ETH. And then it went down again... basically I'm terrible at timing the market. Much less stressful to just be a hodler and use a fairly mechanical cost averaging strategy to slowly accumulate.
do you seriously think steem will ever reach $1 ?
Sure. It was much higher than that during the big spike last July, and with the ambitious 2017 development roadmap recently published + elimination of the initial hyperinflationary economic model, there's no reason to think we won't see those price levels again. Especially if there's an explosion of mass adoption and good distribution of Steem Power away from the current small group of whales.
Potential reverse head and shoulders on the third chart. I agree with you, not much support. I'd give it a medium term 'hold' rating if willing to risk to lows.
I've been looking for it, but I don't see it. Maybe I'm going pattern-blind.
Yeah...that's an actual thing (that I just made up).
Sorry I meant the chart vs the dollar, the 4th one with the 11th to the 15th as the head
But the question is: will steem ever recover to what the early adopters paid ? a lot of early adopters got rekt, steem lost 9/10 of it value if not more, and it is still going down. Traders are just not interested in it, and the steemit.com is taking forever in development, I am not sure we will ever see it go viral, to be honest and seriously doubt it.
I'd say the chances are just as good of it going up to $1.00 as going down to $0.01.
It actually hasn't been going down since early November. It's been trading sideways and slightly up since then.
Well, it's a good thing that Steemit.com is not and will not be the only interface for the STEEM blockchain. There will be other options for the use of STEEM.
I think now is good time to buy bitcoin and steem.