The cryptocurrency markets have been on a wild ride over the last couple of days and the STEEM price has taken a little damage.
With the Bitcoin price on a parabolic rise, most of the alt-coin market took a beating over the past 24-48 hours. The STEEM-BTC price fell through several levels of support and finally rebounded near previous lows after the highs reached on May 8th and 9th. There is a lot to consider at current prices and with the recent activity of the cryptocurrency market.
On the first chart we have the past three weeks of STEEM-BTC price action. The blue line is the previous uptrend line that was broken three days ago. The red line was the new uptrend line that was broken last night. The orange line is the downtrend line from the high on May 20th. The two black lines show a further decrease in volume and the continued negative divergence of momentum.
The STEEM-BTC price is in a clear downtrend from its most recent highs and will need to do a lot of work in the face of higher BTC prices in order to recover and resume its upward long-term trend.
On the next chart, we see a quick double-bottom around 41K satoshis in the past 24 hours (1 and 2), then another touch of the support line about 8 hours later (3). From there, the price recovered and appears to be forming an ascending triangle pattern. Keep in mind that this is a very short time frame, so the pattern may not be indicative of either a bullish or bearish move. However, as I am typing this, the price has moved slightly above the resistance line and is trying to break out around 49K satoshis.
The STEEM-U.S. Dollar price that was in an ascending triangle pattern made a false breakout above the resistance line, then fell below its most recent uptrend line. It found support around $1.08 - $1.10 and is currently trading just above those prices at $1.17 at the time of posting.
How do we interpret this data?
With Bitcoin prices quickly rising and then making rapid swings in trading today, it's hard to say how this will continue to impact the rest of the crypto markets. When the BTC price began to really take off last night, the rest of the market didn't stand much of a chance. Bitcoin is still strong and commands a lot of attention from traders and investors, so we always need to be aware of how the token is trading.
The STEEM-U.S. Dollar price took some damage by breaching its uptrend line. If it can hold the support line around $1.10, the price should still be in good shape going forward. If it falls through that target, there is stronger support right around $1.00 that should catch it.
The STEEM-BTC price is sitting in a precarious position right now and may end up trading in a lower range, as it did before the highs during the past week.
The first upside target to clear will be 50K satoshis, followed by the previous support/resistance lines at 53-54K and then the range between 58K and 61K. I don't expect it to reach that high in the next couple of days, but if it does, then 65K would be the upper level of resistance.
If the price should break down again, the floor is right around 40K satoshis. A break below that line could send prices down to 37K and 33K below that. Unless Bitcoin can muster another powerful rally and attract the bulk of traders' attention once more, I don't expect to see that 40K line breached in another leg downward.
These are certainly some interesting times to be involved in cryptocurrencies and with an influx of money and attention, a lot can go wrong...or a lot can go right. Be careful with your trades and try not to get swept up in the hype and make a FOMO buy or get scared into a panic sell. Pick your targets and execute your orders based on the percentages that your willing to lose or lock in as profits.
If you're trading, always remember:
Never invest or trade what you cannot afford to lose and put tight stop-losses in when prices creep lower towards the support lines.
As always, if you have any critiques or comments about my non-professional analysis, please let me know. If you decide to trade this market, good luck to you!
Disclaimer: I am not a professional adviser and this info should not be used for trading. These are only my interpretations and opinions, and while I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, it would not be prudent to use this for transacting/trading with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex and Coinmarketcap.com. Analysis is current as of approximately 10:15pm EST, May 25, 2017.
Good stuff bro
That a serious resistance line on the STEEM-USD chart! As for Steem vs. BTC, luckily that blow off top BTC just formed provided a little relieve and STEEM bounced a bit of yesterdays low.
Thank you very much, for sharing valuable information
Very interesting analysis. I'm still long STEEM and Bitcoin. Can't say much for the others, especially ETC.
Great post
upvoted
@shayne
Which do you think is more of a real vision the Steem-BTC or Steem-USD relation? I think right now it would be with the US Dollar mainly because of the fluctuations BTC has had these last few days, of course I know close to zero about this.
I've actually been thinking about this lately and it often appears to me that the STEEM-USD charts are much cleaner as far as trends and trading ranges go. If you look at the chart in this post, you can see how those trading channels line up - the uptrends, the plateaus, the range peaks, etc.
It's good to look at both charts, but when one of them is a little messy, the other can certainly come in handy. I tend to look at the STEEM-BTC charts for the initial read, then use STEEM-USD to help confirm it. I'm not sure if one is more right than the other though. I would lean towards the BTC charts mostly because there aren't really any STEEM-USD pairings on exchanges, so the actual trading is all relative to Bitcoin.
I wonder if steem payouts play a role in this. I suspect a lot of people that care about what they make on their posts see the $x.xx and think USD in their head. Maybe the same is true for up-votes too.
Good stuff, as always! With BTC being on such a roller-coaster ride at the moment, I'm more inclined to keep my eye on Steem-USD in the short run to have a sense of "how we're doing."
I agree, it can not grow infinitely. Let's enjoy this nice moment but we're cautious. I hope you understand something from your analysis. Forgive me .... if it is not so ... @ats-david
No one can predict the price of any coin or token.
Yeah...that's why the title of this post isn't "STEEM Price Prediction."
Most of alt coins are red past few days. Few are green only.
Thanks for the informative post!
I predicted this and that of Bitcoin, it is trending already.. Check my posts and see the forecast..
Definitely people shouldn't panic sell. I know people were dumping yesterday and look at today, there is a marked improvement. Great analyseez as always
probably the best TA analysis of STEEM price on steemit imho!!
Well said, great post David!
A pullback makes a great buying opportunity for Steem.
Thanks for the info!
Thanks for keeping interest in such a subject, helps keep the community informed! Job well done.
No worries for long term holders of Steem... as it is just undergoing the same movement with other altcoins when Bitcoin's price is rising. But overall it will have a general bullish trend for the long term.
Appreciate the info
as per my post yesterday minus the fancy graph lines. :)
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@f88steyrr/bitcoin-due-for-retracement
Steem to the Moon. We gonna celebrate
Thanks very much for putting in so much effort into this post. Looks like very good analysis to me. Keep up the good work. #ats-david
Thank you for the informative post! Upvoted!
I am fairly new to the world of crypto coins. Sorry if I ask silly questions, but I always learn something new.
In the chart of steem, when you show points 1, 2 and 3. Do not you think that the downline train broke and now would have to start raising the price? Beyond that the analysis is in a short period of time...
How does volume decrease affect? Because I saw it has declined considerably
Why is the price of sbd in your charts 1.08 / 1.17? Yesterday the price in bittrex was $2.
Sorry for asking so many questions. Have a great friday!
Learning as much as I can. Thanks for the lesson.
I like it!
Last night, I wrote a post of a valoration of Steem based on the increase of active monthly users and in which steals market share to Facebook. You can find it in my profile as "Cryptocurrencies Analysis # 4: My target Price for Steem is $ 2.93".
Great work! Thank you for sharing!
Interesting discussion. Same thoughts here. The current total market cap of all cryptos might seem high but blockchain is here to stay and will involve all our lives. I do see a bright future for everyone that's hold's their coins with a long term vision. I found this great website: https://www.coincheckup.com I'm using this site that gives in depth reports on every tradable cryto in the market. Go to: https://www.coincheckup.com/coins/Steem#analysis To watch Steem Detailed analysis.