Its crazy to think 1 trillion market cap but when you start to compare it to things you realize who much currency is currently floating around. Heck a guy that own a majority of Amazon stocks just showed up of having a value of 100 billion dollars thats roughly 70% of the value of bitcoin and that's just one dude! It is very very possible for us to it some massive numbers in the next year or two.
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Yeah...to show your point, $5T worth of currency is traded DAILY on the forex markets....
That is more than 7 times the value of Apple...it is done daily.
I think a 10% of world broad money supply for crypto as a whole would be a reasonable long term target.
That would basically put crypto at about half the total Euro broad money supply.
I would then assign Bitcoin maybe 2.5% of that total crypto amount, putting BTC total market cap at about 125 billion. Oh, but we're already there with Bitcoin! That's one of the fundamental reasons why I say it's overbought. Syscoin, on the other hand, would need to grow by 718 times to reach its 125 billion "market share", STEEM by 455 times, BitShares by 345 times, Cardano by 125 times, for example. I estimate 50 viable survivors 3-5 years out, with most dominating their own market niches and carrying a fairly relative value - if they're all viable, then their value should be very similar.
Look at how XRP, ETH, DASH, LTC, etc. are doing; they're much closer to their eventual "pieces of the 5 trillion crypto cake". Ethereum is already a third of the way there!
We might be on the verge of crypto's first "rolling correction" where the high flyers correct and the oversold move higher, narrowing the spread between the two.
That's how I treat the big numbers - 5 trillion is a lot - and I don't think BTC will have more than a 2.5% market share in 3-5 years. It's already down to 55%, and that's after a major rally to new highs that pulled it off its all time lows below 38% just a few short months ago.
I think we're already pushing the envelope on individual cryptos like BTC and ETC when put into the macro context. Bitcoin isn't worth accounting for more than 1% of total developed world broad money supply. The whole of crypto might justifiable gain a 5-10% piece of world broad money. Right, maybe I'm wrong, but I think the idea of diversification is just to ingrained and widespread for us to expect more.