The key is new users, the attach rate of SP to new users, the ratio of SP:Steem extant, and the flows to and from the exchanges (b/c flows from exchange are likely Steem being powered up and taken off the market for awhile).
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Is there a site that shows stats for powering up and down? Not individual users but all.
Good question. I've seen the number that 98% of all Steem is powered up. But the source of that, I'm not sure.