keep up this analysis. if the retention rate per cohort continues to decline faster than steem can add users, then this platform will run into the ring of fire problem. another important factor is the growth of engagement per user. i.e. are active users engaging with this product more by creating more content, commenting, reading, etc. This could mitigate the retention rate decline.
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Great point...I hadn't even considered to look at rate of decline vs rate of new users. So far, the growth has been higher (based on chart 2), but it's something to watch...and maybe even compare to price of Steem.