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RE: Downvote Pool Deep Dive

in #steem5 years ago

I just wonder if people (and also many whales) really know what their interests are? They circle jerk, upvote themselves, use bidbotes to reach a certain ROI. They actually get that great ROI, but in the meantime the STEEM price is getting lower and lower. So in my eyes they were thinking to maximize their profits but did exactly the opposite ...

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So in my eyes they were thinking to maximize their profits but did exactly the opposite …

Price of BTC has a bigger impact on Steem price than anything at this point in time.

So, the logical path in the current setup is to hoard as much as you can. Even if Steem only hits $7 when BTC reaches another ATH, that's 20x returns.

If I were a whale who is not confident about Steem's future, that is exactly what I would do: piling tokens. Shitcoin can still moon every now and then.

Hell, if I just sell 1000 Steem when the price reaches $1-2, I would profit.

The free 25% flags will hopefully drop some hammer on the bs on trending and massive self-voters. I'm pretty sure the whales will war with themselves first.

According to the stats I'm informed of: most people don't downvote.

https://steempeak.com/@lalala

You literally only have a handful of people downvoting more than the few times shown on the chart and most of those names are from anti-abuse initiatives of some sort. Or, they are people being flagged by the said groups putting out their retaliation flags.

Most whales seldom downvotes, they are more interested in stacking coins.

Price of BTC has a bigger impact on Steem price than anything at this point in time.

Right, but nevertheless other altcoins, whose prices also denpend on the price of BTC, overtook STEEM, which is only ranked 60th at CoinMarketCap nowadays.

According to the stats I'm informed of: most people don't downvote.

They just don't dare to downvote, even if in future downvotes will be theoretically free. The threat of retaliation is too strong.

Look at the comments under this article for example: a whale upvoted his own comment to the top and flagged another comment which actually got way more upvotes. Even if downvoting would bring some curation rewards and even if they don't like his behavior, I doubt that people would flag the whale comment ...

Right, but nevertheless other altcoins, whose prices also denpend on the price of BTC, overtook STEEM, which is only ranked 60th at CoinMarketCap nowadays.

Doesn't matter. Profit is profit. If you think most people are here for the ideals, you are sadly mistaken. The reason why downvoting is so painful on this platform is because everyone views that Steem token as potentially the ticket to massive gains.

Then again, there's also psychology. People complain about being downvoted by tiny votes from @camillesteemer and their hundreds of alts that literally amount to nothing.

That, and also the unrealistic mindset that this is the place to supplement their income. It can be, but it's impossible to be that way for everyone. People like @baah are on the rare side of the spectrum where "Que Será, Será" is the mantra when it comes to rewards. Ideally, only serious content creators and large stakeholders should care about the rewards.

Look at the comments under this article for example: a whale upvoted his own comment to the top and flagged another comment which actually got way more upvotes.

Because @transisto has been one of the most vocal large stakeholders about this issue. The "more votes" you see simply come from people looking to counter his downvote.

It's hard to make a judgement call on the proposal when I do see the positive and negative side of things, but I do know that status quo is not good.

Doesn't matter. Profit is profit.

There is no profit, if the STEEM price always decreases, which it does since a long time. There is especially no profit for big stakeholders.
It doesn't matter to get a bigger piece of a cake, if the cake is getting smaller and smaller.

And I see no reason why smaller accounts shouldn't be here to earn something, even if of course there is no 'right' to earn.

There is no profit, if the STEEM price always decreases, which it does since a long time. There is especially no profit for big stakeholders.

You do realize that a number of big accounts didn't buy their stakes, right? Also, BTC going up always affect the prices. If you can't sell higher than you acquired (in this case, click of a button), then you are doing something seriously wrong.

Why are you so focused on small accounts not being able to earn? They will be fine. The proposal here is more geared towards bigger stakeholders. If there are no stakeholders, nobody earns.

Let's just wait and see.

You do realize that a number of big accounts didn't buy their stakes, right?

Sure, but nevertheless they would be eager to see its value raise again.

I think BTC and trading is not really the topic here (even if it's interesting). Of course every trader tries to sell more expensive than he has bought ...

Why are you so focused on small accounts ...

As I wrote in "My STEEM Vision.", the value of a (social) network is measured among others by the number of its users.
A rich pool of satisfied users would also make STEEM much more interesting for larger investors in the long run than it still is today, interesting to place advertisements read by many, to market products, to disseminate information.
The value of Facebook is also due to its large amount of users not because of - for example - superior technology.

A rich pool of satisfied users

And what do you think drive people away more? Seeing crap earning lots on trending or the occasional dang I pissed off a whale scenario? Or maybe it's because this platform has less functions than any other mainstream options?

Sure, I can only offer my opinion based on the people I have talked to. I know some content creators become discouraged because they feel they are better than those who earn much more for less. For me, it's frustrating seeing people would spam and use either large stake or bid bots to create more inflation.

50/50 may be able to curb the shitposting from big accounts somewhat, but I kind of doubt it.

We are going off topic.

If whales actually start flagging stuff on trending, etc. I think it could embolden other users to drop their votes of disapproval as well. No matter the account size, what is the downvoted person going to do? Flag everyone back? Or perhaps, they would just bully the smaller downvoters a bit, but that does not make the big flags go away.

ou are balling people up and falling into generalization traps while you suggest that they are not wise enough to recognize the obvious implications of not policing the network.

Apart from the fact that I don't like the term "policing", I never wrote that I am against the downvote option in general. My main comment under this article makes my position clear.

In the article "My STEEM Vision." I give some reasoning why I think maximization of profits like we see it here is shortsighted and doesn't lead to long-term success. The development of the STEEM price seems to confirm my point of view.

It's not about purely maximizing profits or they would simply divide the stake into alts and self vote relentlessly.

Just look thoroughly at accounts like - for example - the one of sweetsssj or haejin, and then answer the question if some big users aren't exactly doing that.

You don't know what the price of steem should be, it could have been vastly overpriced and we are correcting ...

Just check how the rank of STEEM in CoinMarketCap got worse and worse. I see no reason at all why the STEEM value should have "corrected" so much more than the one of its 'crypto colleagues', apart from the one, that the STEEM community wasn't working well due to the greediness of some members and due to a system that made this greediness even more beneficial, because it's gamable too easily. (That's why I am for example in favour of a convergent rewards curve.)

Same applies to you.
But thinking is allowed, nevertheless, and my conclusions after thinking differ from yours.

Apart from that I am an investor myself, as well, and I would have invested more under different conditions. So for me the described whale behaviour does matter. Actually, I dare to claim I am not alone with this perception.
The only thing I can offer you here is to agree to disagree.

You weren't here to see the Whale Experiment ...

It seems I am already longer here than you think ...

You seem to think that there is a thing such as : whale behavior

I am not claiming whales were anyhow worse people than average, but having the power makes them more dangerous (if other people were on top, probably they wouldn't act less shortsighted in average). Thus I plead to institute a system that prevents flag abuse.

If I were to ask exactly which whales and what percentage of whales do they account for I'm sure that you will be digging for figures and data that you have yet to consider.

I could start listing names with an @ in front of them. Yes, I could do that, but then at the same time should be prepared for the end of my STEEM authorship. :)
Yes, maybe I will reach the point that I don't care their flaggs anymore ... and then you will get your list.

Actually, under this article one can observe it again: people (whales!) are flagging comments of other users just because they disagree with their opinion!
NOT because of any abuse or over rewarded posts.
That is our problem here.

Why are you telling these stories rather than showing data? If someone makes a proposal, they have to back it up with data, no?

If you do your homework - define your success metrics and gather the data and show it to the community - you will get immediate agreement, don't you think?

If you don't have the research or data skills to do this, ask for assistance. Many will be happy to help, myself included. We have some excellent statisticians doing good work. You can also check out this post for some ideas for success metrics.

More science, less arguing for the validity of your logic and telling stories to convince others.

What is a big problem with a more scientific approach as I'm suggesting? @vandeberg mentioned that the social sciences have been struggling due to the complexity they are dealing with and difficulty in controlling for variables. However, this can be overcome with appropriate methodology and research and data skills. Books such as Lean Analytics lay out many of the aspects in detail.

If you don't want to do science, fine, but the probability of things going wrong increases, and I don't see too much acknowledgement of that.