Six days ago, I explained why I have been posting everything (here, here, and here) with rewards set to Power Up 100.
sharing his own perspective in response. I thought he made some very good points, but I respectfully disagreed.The next day, @ironshield did me a great honor in
I Was Wrong
The price action in SBD over that last 48 hours proves that the speculators are in charge of the market. There is zero long-term logic for SBD to have any value other than $1. It's supposed to be STEEM that goes a little crazy. What happened shows how easy it is for whales to get the market worked up, bring in the momentum crowd who know nothing about what they're trading, and pump the cryptocurrency.
It means that my full analysis on how the different incentives and back and forth was WAY over-thinking it. In an orderly market with deep liquidity I might have been right. In the actual thinly traded markets that exist for STEEM and SBD in the real world, I was way off-base.
If I want to have a long-term perspective, but still respond to the price action and make some short-term profits, I need to keep my liquid Steem investment balanced between Steem and SBD. For that to happen, I need to always be posting at 50/50. The speculators are in charge. If that ever changes, it will be because the market has matured and we will all be rich. At that point I'll want to post 50/50 anyway so I can live off my Steem income and sip margaritas on the beach...
Well done, @ironshield. You read the market accurately and provided the better advice.
To anyone just joining us that would like to understand the context and arguments, please start with reading the previous posts and comments that I linked in the first two paragraphs.
I am humbled by this post, @josephsavage. It's really impressive that you can consider another's position, even if you disagree. That's becoming an increasingly rare skill these days.
Ultimately, it's not really matter of right or wrong, but learning and adapting as things become apparent. I was not expecting SBD to jump up like that, I was as shocked as everyone else!
Exactly right. STEEM is the token we should all be collecting. SBD is supposed to be a safe haven if STEEM drops, not the other way around!
It's probably best to have both on hand, however right now I have been liquidating my SBD for STEEM while SBD is high. I expect SBD to eventually go back down to $1. I'm surprised it's taking so long.
I received the advice of always using 50/50 (while STEEM value is low) from @timcliff. He was compiling a list of advice for new Steemians. I suggested always powering up (like you did) and he explained that it's always better to have both SBD and STEEM on hand, since we never know what the market will do. He also added that purchasing STEEM using SBD will help the value of STEEM to increase, which is what we all want.
Here's to sipping margaritas on our own private islands as we cash in 6 figures a month on STEEM income. Steem on! @ironshield
I think the idea is that 100% SP is a long term play.
More SP means greater rewards means more SP and so forth. So you snowball your SP until you have a big bank and then switch to 50/50.
You're absolutely right, and that was my original thinking. But the road to the long term is paved in the short term. In the long-term you will have a bigger bank if you keep some liquidity in Steem and SBD so that you can take profits when these crazy pumps happen and then buy back in after the dump.
I've been having this argument with myself for a month now... even after reading both sides... although I do have it set to 50/50 Right now..
It's a very tough choice, isn't it?
Sometimes I'm jealous of the little fish swimming around, posting upvote for upvote and not understanding anything at all. It's such an innocent existence.
But it's also a broke existence. No thank you!
We were all there once..
I wrote a post today about the upvote bots. If you get a moment, could you check it out? @ironshield
https://steemit.com/steem/@ironshield/bribe-a-bots-are-they-worth-it
Sorry I took so long to get back to you. I did read your post before, not long after you posted it. I think that your profitability threshold is too high, but otherwise you have some good points. Why would you expect a 100% return each time? That's what would be required to get your SBD back and have the same in STEEM. I've been running around 14% and I'm happy with it, but then I don't have to live off of the income from it, either.
Curious?
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