The dollar amount is a calculation of what would be paid if the payouts went out today. Between now and then(July 4th) the amount could increase or decrease depending on the number of votes, the price of steem or the total number of posts that will split the 10%.
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If I have $1000 post right now and suddenly STEEMs market-cap goes from $10M to $20M.... will my same post without new votes jump to $2000 value?
That is correct.
What's the algorithm for calculating the value of a post? What causes a post to go to the moon and others to chill like cucumbers?