Speculation as to the source of the aggressive levitation in the SBD price remains one of the hottest topics on Steemit. Given it's resulted in a net increase in post payouts of over 14x (relative to Steem/SBD both at $.90-$1,) the fixation is understandable.
One of the narratives going around is that this SBD price-pump has to do with some scared/smart money moving out of Tether and looking for another "pegged" (ahem) asset. This theory doesn't pass muster with me - I can't imagine a large party wise enough to fear impending counterparty risk from Tether, while simultaneously dumb enough to pile into a "tethered" asset floating at 12x it's long-term mean.
Other explanations, few and far between though they may be, also fail to explain the situation. So, what gives?
I'm only speculating here without data, so keep that in mind.
What if this SBD pump has nothing to do with organic demand, but is merely a benevolent whale looking to drive demand for Steem/Steemit?
This wouldn't take as much money as you might expect. There are less than 4 million Steem Dollars in circulation, per CMC. Buying up and holding even a relatively small portion (say, a quarter or so - 1 million) would have a very material effect on price, especially given how many SBD are burned or converted to Steem each day.
It's feasible that for an investment of a "mere" few million dollars, someone could have drastically increased the profitability of all Steemit posts at a time where many key metrics (accounts, Alexa, user retention) had seemed to be topping and rolling over.
If by chance, this is what happening...then I'll simply say thank you, and keep it up!
PS - Sell your SBD!
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I'm not sure if it's a benevolent whale really. I too am doubtful of the Tether-escape motivation by now.. overpaying by 12x just doesn't fit that bill.
A benevolent whale taking the hit at 12x loss just out of benevolence seems unlikely too, to be honest.
I think the real reason will be revealed over time. However, I wouldn't be surprised if somebody had found some kind of loophole to 'print' money and drive up the price somehow. Maybe some smart programmer figured out a way to milk the reward pool more than one person should, and use those profits to pump up the prize to increase the rewards in $ even more?
I mean.. there is something weird about the fact that I can give an upvote both $1 and in return I get $1.50.
Somebody abusing this on a grand scale (the owner of the upvote bot could maybe) ... well, who wouldn't want a machine that prints money at 50% profit? I've always had this nagging feeling at the back of my head that there's something not quite right about the whole system... In some ways it's almost too easy to make money on Steemit. A botnet could abuse it big time.. but maybe nobody notices when we all have our rewards increased by 12x anyway
"A botnet could abuse it big time"
This was the reason for having exponential, instead of linear, voting rewards on Steemit originally. That changed with HF 19.
" I've always had this nagging feeling at the back of my head that there's something not quite right about the whole system"
Yes, as have I. The game theory is not aligned with the desired community behavior, which is why I wrote Code Is Law.
Hey! You're back! For a while I thought you got so disheartened that you left, or something!
I am looking technically at it. This breakout was due as the triangle was formed. And SBD was trading aroung 60000 satoshis before the brea market started in August. And now we are entering in another Bull cycle, so expect things like this.
PS: I am seeing steem to $15 as well in coming weeks.
Did you mean SBD instead of Steem at 15usd?
No, I mean steem and it will hit that mark in 2018. Steem was trading over 100000 satoshi , and even if it goes close to 750000 , this $15 mark will be hit.
Your predictions are indeed looking more and more likely. You may appreciate Haejin's charts on the matter as well:
https://steemit.com/steem/@haejin/steem-btfd-explosion-imminent-target-usd14-dead-ahead
Yeah I saw this SBD chart and there is high possibility of SBD following it if bitcoin keep moving up. It will be achieved faster if bitcoin reach $40,000@lexiconical
I am adding opportunities for short and mid term trades to catch the moves in bullish market.
So do you think it’s better to sell sbd and buy Steem right now?
Because that’s what I have been doing
They are likely to continue going in the same direction until something changes the fact that the (mostly psychological, and weak) "peg" is broken.
Yeah exactly
Btw can I get your discord username or other messenger contact id to talk you quick time and discuss different trade options on regular basis?
Sure, feel free to message me on Discord. I can frequently be found at MSP.
Sent you DM at discord. Please check
No I don't think we need to sell all SBD, Keep the balance between SBD and Steem.
I think $12 by spring
This certainly appears more and more likely. You may appreciate these charts:
https://steemit.com/steem/@haejin/steem-btfd-explosion-imminent-target-usd14-dead-ahead
No I don't think we need to sell all SBD, Keep the balance between SBD and Steem.
I love that sign!
I honestly think the issue is related to a foreign exchange picking up the currency, it going viral but since they are not participants on the platform they didn't understand the purpose of SBD compared to Steem and now it's too late, the damage has been done and now chaos ensues.
This was the first plausible theory I had heard. @lexiconical has forwarded the second, now.
Of the two I prefer the latter, as more likely to last, and neither accidental, nor devoid of beneficence.
seems like the best theory is technical analysis run amok... people investing in a run they don't understand the basis of
Indeed, although in this case, they may have effectively proven the so-called "peg" has no real teeth.
Investing is like a casino where you have better odds if you know what you doing but ultimately no one has control.
well said
This theory would certainly look a lot more likely if SBD experienced a drop as these same "dumb-money" investors panic back out of an asset they suddenly realize is "supposed" to be pegged to $1.
Not really, if you spent $14 on a $1 asset, how quickly would you want to go and sell it off at $1?
Also, the FOMO train has no brakes.
You mean there's no one running this train or able to stop it!!?!
I think the Korean exchanging listing explanation holds most water
Very good point, I almost forgot about that. Plenty of history to support that one, although the longer this levitation lasts (and the more dips get bought) the more I wonder if there is a more stable solution.
Don't most Korean pumps from listings trend back down to the mean quickly?
I'm not sure about the history there, or what the implications are for the situation dragging out, I wish I did! 🙌
This actually makes more sense to me than any other theory I have heard. I am sure you recall my ravings about median payouts of late, so perhaps such data convinced someone able and wishing to do something about it to take action.
Whoever it is, is smarter than I am, as I would never have thought of this way to increase payouts, and thereby encourage retention and put upwards pressure on Steem.
Merry Christmas, indeed!
I, too, firmly believe the payouts should be moved from the median directly to the right side of the highway, on which all civilized nations drive.
Heh! I am duly humbled =p
The conspiracy theories are increasing hahaha.
At first I heard it was some Korean exchange added listed SBD/Steem.
Another was May be some investors mistook SBD for Steemit...!!!
And now your theory,whatever the theories...let's just keep making profits hahaha.
The kr exchange most definitely listed sbd/steem. That can only be a good thing.
Let's hope the prices keep increasing as more exchanges start listing Steem/SBDs...
I saw a post where the Steemit community is voting to be added on CEX.IO Exchange...This will be more great news to the Steemit community..
The easier it is to move this money - the better :)
It is as good a theory as any I've heard though still not totally convincing.
If it were a good whale with a budget of benevolence for the platform, it would be even more effective to own up to it. If a big whale came out and said they were pumping SBD to a certain level to reward content creators I think that would boost sentiment immensely and put a price floor in place, would it not?
I am not myself sold on the theory at all. It was mostly an exercise in hypotheticals.
Hi Friend, It is been a long while. Whatever is happening to SBD, I'm happy with it. At least people who always laugh at me when I talk about steemit can no longer do so. They usually Steem and SBD are shitcoins with no potential for growth. I believe they are now hiding their heads in shame. I join you to say that big "Thank You".
I'm glad to see you are still around after my break!
Have you looked at @haejin's charts regarding steem and sbd? He has sbd climbing faster right now. I think it is because of the scarcity of sbd, comparitively.
This is why content creation is my first and only daily goal at the moment - to take advantage of this windfall. And I will be spending some of it as soon as I can figure out how to get a wallet that is not in steemit :)
Good plan.
Vessel is your only Steem-wallet option (afaik), but it's not that useful for spending.
PS - I have seen Haejin's calls. His calls for Steem are pretty darn muted compared to BTS @ $342.
Yes, he gets your heart moving for sure :) He just got a bunch of people a huge return on some alt coin they were in for 8 days if they listened to him. Lots of happiness on that blog.
I just had a tiny success! I got approved for my coins.co.th wallet, but it only has bitcoin. Now I get I need another wallet somewhere so I can move from steemit to somewhere to coins.co.th. Or I can go to my trusty 711 and give cash to my new wallet.
idk - I am soon to go on the hunt for a person in Bangkok who will trade my steem or sbd for thb. Then we can take photos and do posts about our inventiveness. I have a cash drop set for my son in San Diego after Christmas. Another steemer is going to take some steem from me and give my kid some usd. Me sending cash from Thailand to San Diego is a rape in fees I will be glad to stop accepting.
"Me sending cash from Thailand to San Diego is a rape in fees I will be glad to stop accepting."
Indeed. Most of my frustration with Bitcoin Core is due to the fact that they have let fees create this problem all over again.
This is pretty close to what I've been thinking. Nice post and good sign pun. I can't buy the tether swap theory at all. Whether it's a pool of benefactors for "Steemians" or themselves, or "both" as rationalization for being Robin Hood, it's hard to complain.
I hope that the price ultimately returning back to normal won't cause a crash from Steemians' emotional highs because powering up SBD for 5-6x Steem is pretty damn exciting. Expectations will be skewed for active users who think this will last.
You've hit the nail on the head. We had much the same experience twice in the past 6 months - once, when we dropped back down from highs near $3, and again when HF 19 came and the large rewards pool backlog got drained. My vote trended downward in value from $15 to under $4 and posting activity saw similar declines.
Now that we're printing money again (sure nice to have that power, isn't it?), all of a sudden the Alexa rank is back down (up)..."bake a brownie and the bastards come running."
Not to mention the artificial buying pressure this creates for Steem itself as people continue to rush to swap SBD for them. The Steem is then powered up by most and "held" to create more price stability for a new floor. ...Ignorance is bliss?
I just read one of @penguinpablo's analysis posts, and for the last week or so the amount of sbd traded for steem (on the internal market, I assume) was WAY down. This answers my question from a week ago about how amazed I was that I was able to get 6 steem for each SBD on the internal market. I couldn't believe that the price of steem wasn't going up. Clearly people have been either holding sbd or perhaps buying other coins with it. I hope they keep doing it, because I'm looking forward to powering up with some coming payouts.
"Clearly people have been either holding sbd or perhaps buying other coins with it."
Yep, this is what is happening. People are holding it and/or buying more of it than they are selling, which is what continues to keep the price high.
Lol, That photo and caption is gold!
I have hardly any SBD. Being on holidays has killed my steemit time.
Tell me about it. I'm only now getting back into the routine.
I made a post the other day about how I couldn't come up with anything to post, just so I could get something out there to get a share of the rewards... ;)
Work with what you've got!
@Lexiconical, I'll bite the conspiracy theory angle and add to it.
Maybe the whale is @dan, who's been powering down for a while now. He mentioned recently in the EOS telegram group that he's been talking about Steemit a lot in the past few weeks. Probably giving it as a successful example for what DPoS and Graphene (technologies that will be used in EOS) can do. At the moment, good PR for Steemit (and BitShares) is good PR for EOS.
:-)
If this theory was to be true, then I expect the pump to continue for at least one or two months.
That's an interesting angle I hadn't considered. However, it seems that Dan is a bit down on Steemit lately (since linear rewards) and he seems to be selling Steem lately...
Cheers@lexiconical Between the two theories I prefer the last one and I belive to last. If I could I would write a more extended comment about this, but unfortunately my disability prevents me writing long comments and posts.
If that’s the case then it would certainly be a VERY GOOD WHALE hahahah
But why not do the same with Steem? I suppose it’s much more difficult to increase its price just by placing a big order?
The difference in market caps makes it many magnitudes more difficult to do this with Steem. You'd need 100x the capital, perhaps 1000x.
i don't know, but it's wacky... i'm more into the USDTether hack theory that led to interest in SBD as a hedge, but when traders saw it spiking it became a self-fulfilling technical run-up /// peace
Calling the end on something like the Tether situation is a foolhardy move. It's taken me a long time to learn that inevitable can be a very long time.
By saying " Sell your SBD", what did you mean? Sell it for steem or anything else?
Either really. It's a pegged asset with a long period of being pegged to the mean. It's not a great gamble to expect continual appreciation. It almost certainly will keep going up for now, but you will be unlikely to get out at a higher price...because when do you stop?
Thanks. I am really new here and trying to figure out how thing's work. Never mind for the question :)
I second that, thank you - whoever you are oh magical whale! Or Tohora as we call them in NZ!
I Don't know for sure what's happening. What I do know is that it's affecting steemit in a positive way; Can¡t sustain it with data but I think the downvote rate has decreased, minnows and dolphins are finally getting the chance to get some nice rewards, and he steemit ecosystem seems more friendly nowadays. Coincidence?
"I think the downvote rate has decreased, ... and he steemit ecosystem seems more friendly nowadays."
I wish that had remained true. We saw an awful lot of flag wars just after this comment.
I'll take it either way. It looks like it might hold for some time before the levy breaks. Pool party get your super steem soakers
It would appear you are correct so far! I would say higher highs are also on the way.
I think it is an attempt to make up for the shit that happened in October .
This would be an interesting theory to expand upon. Who do you think is responsible?
some steem whale I guess. SBD is a small market and I think that someone with few millions ( which is not a lot of money ) could easily manipulate it.
if you remember before this started, steem price was at $0.8 - 0.9 and almost everybody complained and look at as now. we're the kings of the world !!! :)
on the other the price stays at the same level, I mean it was a pump but not a dump, so my theory could be wrong and this happened within the laws of the free market.
I don't think it too much, because I cannot have facts.
Just my 2 SBD cents . :)
This is crazy. How long will this continue?
At least 20 days, I'd guess. (hehe)
i'm quite happy to see it at this level, the fact that it has not dropped is surprising to me for sure.
i can deal with it too (-:
Perhaps it's because there is a limited supply of sbd compared to steem which makes it so valuable to investors.
this is natural, but growth is certainly impressive, this growth will amaze the number of posts being published, as people will want to earn as soon as possible ... thanks for the interesting information
" this growth will amaze the number of posts being published"
What is this supposed to mean?
Must be, it makes no sense for anyone to pump a coin that's supposed to be at $1 when there's a 1000 other coins they could choose to pump.
Although, to be fair, most of those are looking rather toppy. I couldn't find anything I wanted to buy tonight.
Thank you @lexiconical for promoting this post together with https://steemit.com/budget/@jerrybanfield/introducing-steem-budget-proposals
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It makes sense, but if that is the case then what does that mean for the future of steemit?
If the SBD has to be purposefully pumped, then ultimately that could result in a total dump.
Let's hope for the best!
I think we've seen enough market action to rule this conspiracy theory out. There's some actual demand out there.
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