The funny thing about Steem-Backed Dollars is they are actually a much more effective currency than most other cryptocurrencies - provided, of course, that you paid roughly $1 for them (or they continue to master David Blaine's levitation trick.) They transmit almost instantly, have no fees whatsoever, and as an added bonus, even have real intrinsic value in their convertibility directly to Steem via the fill-convert option in the Steemit wallet.
For the record, I'm predicting a "bear" market in fees for BTC, at least temporarily. Price dumps like last night's cause weak hands to sell, and this causes a rush of transactions, who all begin competing with higher fees to get their transaction processed. It can make sense to pay $100s in fees if you have tons of Bitcoin and want to beat the market during a drop. As a result, market demand for Bitcoin transactions causes fees to moon, as above.
It won't last, but it's coming back next time the pool is congested, and the next, and the next...
What does this have to do with SBD? My point is this market has, at best, a tertiary grasp on fundamentals and thus, one can never be sure which way price will go, despite strong fundamentals and utility. Many a trader have been burned thinking long term about silly things like actual usability, and fortunes have been left on the table. Sometimes, you just need to read the tea leaves, sacrifice a goat, acquire a tarot deck do some solid technical analysis.
It's a liability if you are more logical than the market, or too forward-thinking, just as much as if you are less. We're human, and we tend to make dumb trades, panic out of fear, sell or buy at exactly the wrong time, etc. This is why if you draw the same lines that other people draw, they become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We're really all just looking for order in the chaos...or at least, someone to tell us what to do.
So, let us "roll the bones", as it were, and grab a protractor.
Note the particularly sharp bounce from the last dump, which barely touched the area above our trend-line.
Much like a game of Jezzball that has gone horribly wrong, compressing price triangles like we see above cause increasingly harsh price bounces off of both the top and bottom trend-lines until the market decides which way to ram it through (up or down...that's what she said) near the apex of the triangle formation.
Based on the relative ability of Steem and SBD to hold up during this price dump, an upside break is totally possible. However, we are in at least a temporary bear market, and SBD are already almost $10. It's hard to recommend an asset "tethered" at $1 in a bear market as a buy.
I know the question everyone really wants answered is "What do I do to make the most money?" Nobody can say for sure. However, Bitcoin is likely to bounce back before long, and that means any SBD you are able to sell at .00080000 or more are going to leave you sitting with $15 or more in Bitcoin, per SBD, relatively soon. It's hard to do much wrong setting limit sells from 75k Satoshi all the way up to our trendline, maybe 95000 Satoshi.
If one wants to be greedy, aim for the highs near 12/7, 105-109 (110 is too even, set below round numbers slightly, not on or above).
Best of "luck" out there.
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Sources: Bittrex, Bitinfocharts.com
Copyright: CoinMarketCap, Bittrex, MindTemple.com, PBS, Rounders
Brilliant post and analysis buddy. You really seem to be having a great grip on crypto movements. For me, i have been instantly converting sbds to steem and powering up as soon as my payouts arrive. Is that the best thing to do at present ? Look forward to your views. Regards Nainaz.
#thealliance
If you're not trying to be a trader, that is a perfectly good strategy. It ensures you get some of the benefit of this run. If you saved all your SBD, you could miss out if price crashes.
Thanks dear for your valuable inputs. Am definately not a trader and believe in long term investing since i believe steemit as a platform should do wonders in future.
It's a lot easier to lose your money trading than making a few well-researched buy-and-holds.
Your posts are always enjoyable, good analysis(as seen in pictures) combined with good humor! I knew I should have taken the time to buy before work this morning (<11000)
Thanks for the post, first picture is a work of art
"Thanks for the post, first picture is a work of art"
A fine eye like yours will appreciate these alternate arrangements of totally not the same piece:
I am willing to have these printed on concurrent canvases for individual sale, Groupon style.
@lexiconical is a natural at this.
You laugh, you learn.
I agree with you @jakeybrown.
Peace.
I hope the Jezzball reference wasn't too old for these kids and their Windows OS X Cyborg-Lollipop 10.
Oh, wait, that's Android, not Cyborg.
LOL!!!!!
It’s so 'sad' ;+) when people talk over my head; and I laugh uncontrollably…clueless that it may be a laugh at, instead of laugh with…(funny, nonetheless!!!)
Thanks @lexiconical for a real inner rofl…I needed it!
Peace.
I have to admit that I don't have the time or the inclination to think about all this too much!
And perhaps not the intelligence to work through it all logically and make money...
So I play to my strengths - I get SBD and turn it into STEEM, and I buy EOS and BTS and a few others, and I wait and see what happens. And on days like today I buy some more because it's all half price.
Seems to be working ok 😀
Cheers
I'm liking this discount we're seeing on EOS, but I'd really like to get back in under $5.
I would be v happy if it went under $5! I already have a healthy amount at a cost base below $1 so quite happy to sit and wait on this one
Below $5 I would back up the truck again!
I'm still waiting for that sub-$5 dip! Argh.
Yeah - don't think it will happen.
I am acquiring more Eos using margin on bitshares, selling enough to pay back the loan once it has gone up a reasonable amount, then transferring what is left out to MEW. Works reasonably well given the fluctuations at the moment, and even if I get caught on a downturn I am happy to hold on longer-term
Thanks for the update!
I dont get it... Why would anybody buy something for way more than 1$, when its actually pegged to 1$? Evrybody says it migh go up.. Why are there so high demand for this coin over steem? If you have found any information about this I would be very happy if someone would like to share it.
The most plausible explanation appears to be the addition of new Korean demand.
"when its actually pegged to 1$?"
Well, we're seeing now that the SBD "peg" is a very soft one. It's more of a "suggestion" than a true peg. We'll have to wait and see if it returns.
Alright, thanks for the explanation :)
Looks like an ascending triangle pattern meaning the price will stay sideways for a little while then at the tip of the triangle explode up....buy, buy, buy
Technically speaking, I would agree that is what it looks most like!
I'll give you a riddle. Yesterday, while the market was down...I saw Doge spike up a bit. Can you solve this riddle of what was happening?
Hey man, good to see you!
Doge was already showing signs of life recently. @Haejin recently picked it as one of his bullish calls. This could, in fact, be part of the answer to your question.
Seems like the right move; Changing SBD for BTC and wait for BTC's impending pump and make some profit. Cheers Bro!
I'm still waiting for said pump a month later...BTC is looking weaker and weaker long term, if you are considering fundamentals as well as charts.
Play both charts....recognize the patterns and trade back and forth
That's a trader's game that isn't for everyone. However, most people do need to make a trade at least one way, and that's why they always want to know the immediate future price.
Great analysis. It is psychological game more than anything else. In trading or investing most important think that you have to learn is how to control your emotions.
This sounds like a cliche, but is absolutely true. Your human emotions will regularly pull you away from the direction of profits.
The crypto game is contrarian economics 101....man Warren Buffet doesn't trade things that he doesn't fully understand so he won't touch cryptos but his investing style is king here
I'm sure we should hold... or sell... or buy...
Someone passed the post-article test.
Thanks for the valuable information, what is your opinion, should I go for SBD or buying some steem?
Tough to say. That's why I wrote this article.
Steem has a lot less room to fall if things revert to the mean.
Thanks
Very good analysis, I think that for me as a rookie is difficult to issue accurate opinion, but if I can give some hypothesis, I think the bitcoin will rise even more and still has a long way to go. Valuable information, thanks for sharing.
This is a tough market to predict even for experts. However, Bitcoin appears to be locked in a trading range from about 10k-12k for the moment.
It is going to come up 7-7-7 for STEEM ,,, a very happy new year !,
I think we actually made it past the $7.77 price for a few hours/days there not long ago!
good job sir
Try to put a bit more effort into your future comments.
What I am doing with my sbd is to exchange them for steem and holding that.
I believe that’s a secure move right now.
Interesting; but the Steem would be worth a whole lot more powered up. I'm a novice; but, it sounds like you're playing it 'safe', while dropping hundreds on the floor.
How can steem be worth more when powered up? It’s the same token.
Or do you mean my votes and curation will be worth more?
I'm not sure exactly what he means, either. If the Steem is powered up, it can't be sold, and therefore has no price.
Today Steem is valued at ~$3.
The SBD is valued at ~10.
Do I need to explain more?
Peace.
very good recommendations, they have helped me a lot
I am pleased I could be of help in your trades...
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what a great analysis, i believe any decision taken by any steem dollar holder is justifiable, selling now will be great but buying now is also good.
It doesn't usually work that way...it's rarely a good time to both buy and sell.
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9.90% @pushup from @lexiconical
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Who knows what it will do. Maybe keep a margin so dont sell ALL sbd just incase it keeps going up...
It's always a safe plan to split up your trades into smaller bits. It helps prevent buyer's and seller's remorse, since top ticking markets is very difficult.
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IDK what you said little kid but I'll keep posting and voting. I like where things are going
This is a very odd comment. Who is the little kid, and what does this mean?
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Yeah, I think I'll take a pass on that one.
Also, I'm not your friend, buddy.
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Sneaky Ninja Attack! You have been defended with a 7.80% vote... I was summoned by @lexiconical! I have done their bidding and now I will vanish...Whoosh