There are 2 possibilities:
- (Your version) SBD-Buyers are idiots for buying SBD above the convertible real value, overpaying for nothing.
- They know something we do not know that implies a higher value of SBD's and could explain the peg to Steem for the last few months.
Seeing those big volumes of a 100 million USD traded in SBD makes me think that those players must know what they are doing. I still do not understand their reasoning.... There might be an explanation, but it is pure speculation... I wrote about this possibility:
https://steemit.com/smart/@mexbit/this-might-be-the-reason-why-a-sbd-is-13-usd-worth
I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. I have heard the SMT theory driving SBDs but I just don't think it holds up. If SMTs become inaccessible due to SBD scarcity and/or price then it will be totally counter-productive for the platform. I just don't see it.