Actually that's how I used to estimate this but it's not very accurate.
A big part of that $4 derives from the hope that it will become successful one day, a community with 50k active users can't be worth 1B... And if we get to 50m users, part of this hope will pay off.
Therefore I would say something like 250x, then our STEEM will be worth "only" $1000. Keep stacking them!
How much is Facebook worth with its 2 billion monthly users?
Adding the "potential" markup... maybe $250?@swissclive ~500B... or $250 per user. For 50m steemers that would be 12.5B, or 12.5x the current market cap. This means $50 per STEEM.
I guess we were both very optimistic in our estimates :-)
I agree with your maths. The $4000 was a bit tongue in cheek. In my post of a few days ago I estimated $100 to $200. That was based on steem achieving a certain percentage of a typical diversified digital assets portfolio.
As far as the FB comparison goes, there are 2 factors which affect your $50 + $200 markup calculation.
At 50m users the future growth expectation is higher than FB’s 2bln growth expectation. That justifies high markup.
FB has heavy costs due to its infrastructure. Steemit’s lower cost justify a higher price per user.
In conclusion $50 per steem looks like the baseline, and there will still be plenty of potential.