Hello Steemers!
The market seems to have kept the rainy mood from yesterday,
the bears are pushing the downtrend not even letting the bulls catch a breath.
POLONIEX
4 hour Poloniex chart - Aug 11, 2016
4 hour Poloniex chart - Aug 12, 2016
The price made a a weak bounce after making a new all time low, but started going down right after and is now again at the ~0.0025BTC support level which was pulled from Bittrex and was used as a stopping point for yesterdays downtrend move.
BITTREX
4 hour Bittrex chart - Aug 11, 2016
4 hour Bittrex chart - Aug 12, 2016
The Bittrex price trended in a very similar way to the Poloniex one with the difference that it again made a lower low to close the previous day.
VOLUME COMPARISON
STEEM/BTC volume Bittrex Aug 11, 2016
STEEM/BTC volume Bittrex Aug 12, 2016
STEEM/BTC volume Poloniex Aug 11, 2016
STEEM/BTC volume Poloniex Aug 12, 2016
STEEM indexed global volume Aug 11, 2016
STEEM indexed global volume Aug 12, 2016
Coinmarketcap top volume cryptos Aug 11, 2016
Coinmarketcap top volume cryptos Aug 12, 2016
The volume has stayed pretty much the same as yesterday, again much higher on Poloniex then on Bittrex.
$STEEM is still showing that its in the top of the crypto scene when not in the best shape as far as volume goes.
COMMENT
Once again, I will post the comment by commenting as it involves my personal opinion!
Thank you for understanding!
If anyone has any questions or need's help fell free to ask, I will try to explain as fast and as best as I can.
Critics, comments, reply's, counters, advice's, etc. are always welcome!
Have my charts helped you in any way?Let me know with a comment below :)
Are there more people who are doing TA?
DISCLAIMER
I am showing multiple scenarios on the price movement, in the post itself I do not take any stance, either bullish or bearish. I am not responsible for neither you’re winning nor you're losses upon trading! the "comment" section is my personal opinion and does not mean I have to or do hold any positions in the given market.
Kind Regards, OZ :)
COMMENT
The price is in serious danger of further downtrend and making of new all time lows on Poloniex.
In that scenario I'd assume once again Bittrex support levels would be used since Poloniex doesn't have the necessary history, which means first stop should be around ~0.0022BTC, the next being ~0.0020BTC after which there is none till ~0.0015BTC.
Not everything is so red thou, this are very low levels for Poloniex and the price has a fair to a decent chance to make a sudden turn in trend and turn this situation into a green festival.
the future is in the new currency DT token for your system, it is worth investing, currency leads from the June 25 outstanding, and has already galvanized 80% right now is downward, waiting for the boom to raise the price.
Unfortunately, TA is isn't very helpful with Steem right now. The fundamentals don't care about pretty lines on a chart.
Some people use TA, some don't, it's helpful if you know how to use it.
@furion In trading every advantage counts and TA is an definitely an advantage if you know how to use it.
thanks for update
In reality these lower prices are good for better distribution of steem on the exchanges, and will allow the opportunity for new people to become whales. This can allow for the rewarding of new topics of conversation more. While it isn't great for traders, it isn't bad for STEEM or Steemit!
thank you for posting this analysis it really helps us (traders)
Thank you for letting me know it helps !
please feel free to ask or critic anything!
Another week, another low. Steem is now at the $1.5 mark and the market still looks bearish with no respite for the bulls. Volumes are still pretty strong but will this lead to unattractive payouts in the next 6 months?
Users have seen they're account value drop by over 30% now in the last couple of weeks. Whilst the number of active users on Steem is in decline.
Here is the data:
2016-07-26 5185
2016-07-27 5282
2016-07-28 6464
2016-07-29 5617
2016-07-30 4398
2016-07-31 4095
2016-08-01 4349
2016-08-02 4439
2016-08-03 4313
2016-08-04 4254
The lower number of active users does make a case for better rewards in the short term, in the long term Steem relies on new users pumping money in to the platform to continue giving out the high rewards that attract more users to the site. Remember, Steem's money supply is generated this way.
Another problem with Steem is that a lot of users are powering down they're accounts. The 90% rewards return on powered down accounts there isn't much disincentive for users to not power down. This causes an outflow of money from the Steem ecosystem at the rate of almost 1% per week per powered down user. The ease at which Steem rewards can be withdrawn from the system to Bitcoin which can be linked to a Debit Card for daily use is a big factor. Many authors use this to pay for they're daily lives now and get a paycheck at the end of each week for their efforts by powering down. A look at the books of accounts for Steem is important and i hope these are shared by the founders, it is ultimately a living example of a blockchain application where transparency is so vital.
Since Steem's business model is similar to that of investment in shares of a company on the stock exchange the sharing of financial information to its investors should be mandatory. Metrics such as cost of user acquisition, user growth, engagement times, and financial balance sheets should be public information.
Conclusion:
Whilst traders may bet on Steem as prices continue to drop there are some strong contradictions between rewards and money supply within the network. The active user base dropping is a major fundamental concern and i think in the next few months Steem will face a liquidity crisis that will need to be addressed in order to keep payouts high enough to encourage existing users to return whilst increasing investments in marketing to attract new users. Like with all other social media sites the cost of acquiring new users to use the platform is important to know, with Steem prices on the fall, rewards may not alone be enough.
This of course isn't a short term problem but with active users having they're money locked in for 2 years this is a concern!
Speculators and traders won't support Steem price forever, it's inflationary, no smart trader will invest on it long term. Steem Power is also inflationary, just slower.
Steemit platform could work just the same with a very low Steem price, the payouts would be in cents though.
There's absolutely no basis for that only wishes. Steem price is not sustainable, no ones needs it and has no value. Content may have value but not Steem nor SP, the platform can work just the same with a Steem price of $0.01.
how much longer do you reckon that will happen?
Wont steem have a value in the marketplace that is rumored to be opening on Steemit? Or will steem dollars have the most value in that scenario?
I'm not sure how that would play out. Again, Steem or SP don't have any perceived value for any smart trader, that's my personal opinion. I would never buy into a highly inflationary currency, coin or project. I would buy into a Steem token or asset that is directly linked to the value the platform brings (content) but Steem and SP are not linked. If you buy Steem you are getting punished in the long run no matter what you do. That's the fundamental aspect. I enjoy these technical analysis in the short term but crypto is a whole different beast than other markets.
I'm expecting steem to reach a price of at least 80 dollars a pop within 2 years.
you really think so? that would be awesome
We haven't even been open for an entire year. Adoption is only growing. Trend reversal is imminent.
it would just be sad to end up bagholding tho
It would take at least 10 years before the effects of inflation kick into high gear. given that they don't change the subsidy rate, but they most likely will.
Steem token will definitely live longer than the dollar. At first steem is the unstable part of steemit, at the end the dollar is the unstable part of steemit
The Platform would probably reward good content posts better if the payouts were more like cents
I can agree with that. In my opinion if that happens, users will just lose interest and go back to the competition which are miles ahead (Reddit, Medium). Big payouts and money is 99% of Steemit's success wherever we like it or not.
These days $STEEM is falling off a cliff. Doesn't even require charting techniques to see this. Downtrend will eventually end in the 100k sats range, patience my young padawan.
yes, going from more than $4 to $1.5 is sad to see
100k sats? Please 'splain for a noob. :)
100k sats is a price of 0.00100000 BTC/STEEM
1 sat or satoshi is 0.00000001 BTC
Ty Oz)
So.. panic sell time?
depends on who's behind the keyboard ;)
wah?
Great daily chart! :)
Nice job!
Hi ozchart ! I am loving the education both you and vapeking are giving me! 2 different views on the charts . Both valuable!
I think the price of steem to btc will decline
Once again a great update for the steem price! thank you!