you should turn STEEM into SP. This makes you additional 1.5% a year (in 2017) in form of dividends
It's actually a bit higher than that, currently just over 1.9% APR. I crunched the numbers and posted the results:
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Wow! True. I made the exact same mistake you describe in your post. As you correctly point out, it's wrong to simply multiply 9.5% inflation by 15% returned to SP holders, because not all Steem is held as SP. The more Steem stays liquid, the less inflation SP suffers.