Another thing to take in consideration is of those who "won" are people who maybe would have gone huge either way. see jest promoted, fyrstikken and a lot of "names" [ timsaid ].
People that have whale support are skewing the stats and even they can't skew enough for the truth to be seen by all.
It won't work, EVER, at 50$/promo.
Why?
Simple, when you promote for 3$ you are promoting to me, to you, to ppl that have this kind of upvote power --3-10cents. you need 20 of us ot be profitable.
When you promoto 30$+ [ not to mention 100$ ] You are promoting to WHALES, period.
So promotion at the current price is a GameOfWhales, when it was supposed to be a gameofDolphins.
Sad but expected as everything with Steemit, it all goes back to the whales.
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I still think it could change. Those who would probably "win" anyway might stop or at least pay less as the novelty wears off.
I think the biggest effect will come from dolphins and minnows promoting for less, which will drive down the upper-value required by the "big-shots".
There is of course the chance that the "big-shots" won't adjust and the upper value remains, effectively pricing out dolphins and especially minnows. I think this was your point, and I'm worried too.
Your argument fails if whales look at the promoted page and decide to upvote stuff there, which does happen.
I do not think my argument fails, i'm sure you and other whales do look at that and sometimes upvote, but it's still a price that you pay for the eyeballs of 5-10 people who can upvote 100$+. It just doesn't look ok to me that way.
But agree to disagree :D