I get ahead-ache thinking about the complexities of the exchanges and fees, but here's what I see:
- 4 weeks ago, you predicted that the price would continue to drop,and you gave an explanation for why.
- In the last four weeks, the price has continued to match your prediction.
- The exact timing of the switch from rising price to falling price (July 19) is consistent with your explanation.
- Based on the transfer log, the user who you noted may still be engaging in the same trading patterns that you highlighted (although I don't know enough about the exchanges to be sure.)
I get what @enki was saying about market prices finding the right level, and I'm not knowledgeable enough to draw any conclusions, but to me the above facts all seem to be consistent with the idea that something about the launch of the external SBD market altered the price-finding mechanism .