I thing this can be kill Steem in a unlucky ( middrange) Bullrun.
I don't see that at all. In a bull run, inflation is actually reduced by the presence of SBD. The tougher situation is in a bear market.
This is true of DAI as well, because ETH (and other assets with MCD, but that's small so far) will be liquidated from CDPs and reintroduced into the market. That's effectively higher inflation. We just haven't see how things play out when DAI is large yet.
I think if a Bull run goes arround 6-12 month it is possible we have a lot of SBD. If the price should go under 1$ again, then it can be reinforce negatively. With more SBD it can be really damage Steem.
With a 20$ Steem SBD gets prited like crazy. And im sure this can be kill Steem.
With DAi i think the Design makes sense. It is big time scaleable.
It also would support SMTs ( with a real 1$ pair), add liquidity to internal marked and gives exchanges another 1$ pair there can use ( and im sure there will love to use, if steem grows).
Next point is the DAI SBD version can be used to get a Steem Paypal Version ( super long term vision). Social Media and payment Systen that is fast and decentralisiert.
With a Steem DAI version we would have the advantage with easy Wallets and easy Front Ends that everyone can use.
For the masses it would be awesome to have a really 1$ pegged asset.
The rewarding with SBD is IMO retarded and a big Design misstake. Its not Scaleable and can in worst case print a lot of Steem.
Maybe im wrong, but it can be worth to think about.
The way I see it rewarding from inflation is questionable and in a bull run can end up printing a lot of Steem being paid out with very little benefit. During the last bull run we had people getting paid $1000 for absolute nonsense which added almost nothing to Steem longer term. But I don't see a big difference between rewarding with SBD or rewarding with STEEM. I'm leaning toward the view that SMTs and apps should set their own rewards on the basis of actual revenue such as advertising, premium sales, membership fees, etc. Inflation turns into a big money grab at the expense of investors who then have little reason to invest.
Also, I see very similar potential problems with DAI on ETH in the case of big moves. Right now there is ETH with $25 billion market cap and $100 million of DAI, so DAI is really small by comparison, <1%. But what happens if DAI grows to say $1 billion and ETH drops in value by 90% or more (as all cryptos have done at some point, some more than once). I think you get the same sort of imbalances we see can happen with STEEM and SBD.
But if Etherum drops it is worth to look out the DAI because it has more Vaule then a $. That is the beauty of the Design and makes it stable.
OFC if Etherium losses 90% of Value would be suck, but it would grow again, because you need Etherium for DAI ( for the mechanism).
It is not like SBD, that come from nothing ( debts).
Nope please give it a deeper look. Only current SBD is retarded because it can be Dynamic tranfered to Steem and is the same System. DAI and ETH are 2 Systems that work together. They can only very little influence each other in a bad way.
The next point is you cant scale the current SBD as a Payment resource.
It is broken. And every real investor doesn't want a dynamic transfer in Steem. The current SBD should be deleted or repaired.
Long Term is this after account creation and some other problem the biggest weakness of steem.
There is no reason, necessarily, that DAI would be worth more than 1$ just because ETH drops. In fact it may be worth less than $1 not only because of supply and demand factors but because of the increased risk that it becomes undercollateralized.
You could absolutely have market conditions where people want no part of DAI or ETH, and then it becomes an imbalance (if the amount of DAI is large).
It is very similar to what happens with SBD.
Also, SBD isn't created out of nothing. It is converted from STEEM in the reward pool. It is the STEEM in the reward pool that is created out of nothing (inflation).
but SBD is debt.
With DAI you look up 300% of value of ETH. If the price of DAI goes under 1$ you can buy it cheaper and get your ETH out.
With the Lock up it is IMO more scaleable. Because if need more, its possible to lock up more.
If ETH should fall dramaticly ( like 90%) it can be dangerous and its the same to SBD. You are right.
But on the other side, ETH must fail really hard to crash 90%. If DAI is 10x bigger and ETh Crash, there are a lot of ETH is lockt away.
It needs to crash in a really short time over 60% to get really dangerous. If the DAI market would be that big, i dont think this happens ( maybe)?
If people trust in DAI, there trust in ETH.
Btw, im not a ETH fan, but i like the idea to lock up and generate a Stable coin. Because is scaleable if needed.
And to be logic, if ETH falls under the lock up, people would clear there DAI order. Otherwise they would lose money.
From the economic perspective it should work.
Price falls -----> DAI gets cleard ----> less DAI.
I dont say DAI is perfect, but maybe in a long term vision we can upgrade SBD, to get a better version of it :)
DAI is literally debt! What do you think the "D" in CDP stands for?
You lock up ETH and are lent (i.e. debt) DAI as long as you leave the ETH locked up. In order to repay the loan and get your ETH collateral back, you have to return the DAI.
I don't really agree with this. Bitcoin has dropped 90%, even 95%, and didn't fail. ETH dropped over 90% (almost 95%?) from December 2017 to December 2018 and that wasn't considered failing; it was just a price drop. It is just the nature of highly volatile crypto assets that big drops are possible (as are big increases). It's not desired to see that kind of drop but is almost expected, and it has to be considered in analyzing something like DAI.
I don't mean to say that DAI would certainly fail catastrophically in the case of a big drop in ETH (and/or decline in organic demand for DAI itself) but then again SBD didn't entirely fail either despite STEEM dropping roughly 99%! It suffered a temporary haircut period but has now mostly recovered.
So overall I would say we are still in an experimental period of figuring out how these systems should work best. You might also be interested to read this critique of DAI as not being scalable. (I would not claim that SDB is actually any better.)
Thanks for the answer.
I will think about this :)
I dont say ETH would fail. I think if the ETH price would drop in a short time it can be really dangerous for DAI.
Im happy you know what you talking about and im sure in the future, if many people think about, we will find a really good solution for SBD :)
Btw, i would support Steem donation to DAO.