This is the 5th part of a series as to why I believe we are going to see an explosion in STEEM due to a convergence of many variables all aligning up properly.
Major technological innovations do not happen in a vacuum. Instead, they are the result of years of research in many different fields which all came together at one time. It is almost as if everything magically lined up at that moment in history. Often, some will attribute it to luck but it is far from it. This convergence of breakthroughs is what makes revolutionary ideas happen in technology.
We are at a very interesting time on steemit. The SBD pricing exploded. It did not take long for people to post that it was time to switch the reward payout to a 50/50 split. The reasoning for this is that one is getting roughly 6 STEEM for every SBD (on the internal market). This single factor is increasing the payouts to each person by a multiple of 3. Naturally, this enables people to power up at a faster rate. On the steem blockchain, steem power is key because it dictates voting power. The more, the merrier as they say.
SBD is just one example of the sweet spot I am referring to. We are in a time period where the price of STEEM is growing at a pace faster than the user growth rate. This is crucial since the reward pool is priced in STEEM. Dollars mean nothing on the steem blockchain. However, the payouts are depicted on the website in dollars. Since the price of STEEM more than doubled in the past 6 weeks, this means that the payouts, in terms of dollars, moved up by the same percentage.
Since the user rate is not keeping pace, there is more of the pie (in dollars) available to each person. Simply by doing the same thing you did a month ago, you now have double the money. Naturally, this is just a mental exercise since you are paid in STEEM and you do not realize the dollar gain until cashing out. However, this is very important since people see the dollar amounts on Steemit. From an attention stand point, this is powerful. There will come a point where the dollar values shown on posts is just too hard for the masses to resist. Word will spread that people are making thousands of dollars per post (which we are starting to see). People cannot resist money like that and will be drawn to it.
I call this a "spot" since it is really just a window in time. As more people sign up and start participating, the reward pool will become diluted. It is possible, down the road, you are earning 1/10th or 1/20th the STEEM you are now. Of course, the idea is that more people will drive the price of STEEM up meaning your compensation, in dollars, exceeds what it is at present. We are in that window. Growth on this blockchain is steady but not exponential...yet. People on here need to take advantage of this while it exists.
This is the perfect time for all newer people to put forth the effort to get to the 1000 SP level I mentioned a couple weeks ago.
I learned a long time ago, when it comes to investing, do not overlook the big elephant in the room. This is often what will make or break you.
On this blockchain, the big elephant is Smart Media Tokens. Over the past few days I wrote about many different attributes and factors that are converging in a way that is going to push STEEM higher. However, none of this compares to what SMTs are going to do.
For those who are unaware, briefly, Smart Media Tokens is a protocol which allows content creators with sites to come to the STEEM platform and create their own token. In this regard, it is similar to the ERC20 protocol on the ethereum blockchain.
That said, SMT provide content creators with a series of advantages that ERC20 does not.
When someone creates a token on the steem blockchain, they instantly get the curation reward system. This is vital to content creators who are seeking to profit of their creations. It also gives their followers the ability to earn tokens by participating on that site similar to how we are operating here on Steemit. The "Get Paid To _________" model is basically what is being offered through the development of a new token.
To provide liquidity, each new token created is paired with STEEM. Remember when I said that steem is a de-centralized exchange and, even though the only currencies traded are STEEM and SBD, there was the ability to add more. The "more" is the tokens created via the SMT protocol. All tokens will be available on the steem market just like SBD and STEEM. This is a huge advantage to someone accumulating a newer token. Since there isn't a place to spend it and, most likely, no exchange to trade it, steem provides the liquidity via its' own internal exchange.
Smart Media Tokens potentially provide the steem blockchain with access to some of the most active websites on the Internet. Any site that creates content, which is almost every site out there, can design a token and be on the steem blockchain. This offers the ability to enlist a site or two with millions of followers. Considering this entire blockchain has roughly 450K accounts signed up and only about 30K active users, you can see how that will be an exponential jump. Once that happens, say goodbye to the sweet spot we are presently in.
Alas, grasshopper, have no fear. There is good news.
When this takes place, and notice I said when, the value of STEEM will automatically jump. The other day I wrote about the value of the blockchain. One of the aspects that is unique is the idea of no fee transactions but, rather, using bandwidth. As stated in that post, bandwidth, like everything else on this blockchain is priced in STEEM. Hence, a site drawing millions of people over is going to need to have enough bandwidth to facilitate the growth it is seeking. How does it acquire this bandwidth? By buying STEEM. In short, more users means greater bandwidth used leading to higher demand for STEEM. AND unlike the fiat world, the amount of STEEM cannot be expanded to meet this demand. Instead, prices will adjust to balance the supply/demand ratio.
So let me ask you, even without a degree in finance or economics, what do you think will happen to the price of STEEM when the demand increases substantially due to a need to pay for bandwidth?
Cha-Ching!!!!!!
Money. Money. Money.
Consider this: for the companies that develop tokens, THERE IS NO CHOICE. This is not a speculation play hoping the value of the token increases. Rather, it is something these businesses have to do not only to operate, but to expand. In this arena, bandwidth is like oxygen to a runner. The prospect of not having it is unappealing and has dire consequences. What is amazing is that the purchase of STEEM by the owner(s) is simply a cost of doing business. Part of the flexibility in the curation reward system is the owners decide how much they retain off each transaction for operating expenses. In short, the greater the activity taking place, the more money they are pulling in. Purchasing extra STEEM for bandwidth is a problem every token creator will want to have.
And who does this favor? Those of us holding STEEM.
For those who missed it, there was a major token announcement a couple months back called Vice.org. This is a cooperative of many different content creators in the adult video industry i.e. porn. One of the companies involved is Penthouse, a rather large name. Their motto is "Get Paid For Watching Porn". Now I am not interested in anyone's view on this subject other than financial. Having just discussed bandwidth, what do you think will happen when they open up shop? Do you think they will lure a few users to the steem blockchain? When you consider the success of all the tube sites out there, what will happen when people are getting paid to watch this stuff? If you think there will be a massive explosion (pun intended there), I agree with you. This one token will probably bring millions of people to the steem blockchain. Can you imagine the bandwidth they are going to require? It will be enormous (no pun intended there but I guess that does apply to porn).
And this is only one token. Imagine 5 or 10 with similar reach and magnitude.
Remember, the steem blockchain can easily handle 10,000 transactions per second with the possibility of knocking out 100K/sec. This is one of the few blockchains with the horsepower to handle the type of volume these entities are going to require. Bitcoin cannot do this. Nor can ethereum.
Excited yet (okay I couldn't resist one last innuendo). Well, you should be.
If you found this article to be informative, please give it an upvote and a re-steem.
In case you missed the other parts of this series:
Pictures by Google Images.
You argue in a very compelling way and I'm inclined to agree with you, we will see how well the Vice SMT does and how long it takes them to draw a user base. I know they are distributing 10% of tokens to STEEM holders so that will be good for their brand awareness and should draw some users immediately over to their platform. I briefly looked through their whitepaper but couldn't find a reason for why their token will really have value for the average user, as in, why would anybody want to buy them? Is the Vice token going to have a power up type function just like STEEM does?
I didnt know they were distributing 10% of the tokens to STEEM holders...that is awesome...I like free money.
I presume STEEM also means SP.
I would presume the same power up process is available. I cant be sure but it sounded like the same aspects as on STEEM applied to the SMT tokens. The major difference was the percentage breakdown of the transactions and new tokens created. The needs to be a way to decipher differences in voting power and SP is the only way I can see so far. If Vice is following the same upvote, commenting system, they need a way to have active users have more voting power.
And I would presume the "author" rewards simply will go to the company that created the video.
@alexmavor and I have now uploaded our interview with you @taskmaster4450, - you can see it on both of our profiles. Would appreciate it, if you and @jarrybanfield would be able up up-vote and resteem!
Thanks
Anton
You're right that what is happening right now is too good an opportunity to pass up. I have YouTube channels with a combined 40k subscribers and I'm considering moving my whole platform to Steemit & DTube to grab as much SBD as I can and convert to other coins. You made a great case for holding onto my STEEM, so I'll take your advice and do that too.
You only get one chance to get in at the ground floor and I think this is the time. Great article. Upvoted and resteemed.
If you did that, you'd be my hero!
I have been trying to communicate this sentiment for some time now... well over a year on Radio and Internet shows, explaining to people that THEY are the problem by using centralized and weaponized web systems that are in the control of Psychopaths. I've Unsubscribed from just about EVERYONE who Whines about demonetization and then BEGS for followers to send money. YOU, on the other hand Nathan, are appearing to "GET IT!" You're realizing like many of us that it is US that is the commodity and that these platforms like YouTube and Facebook immediately Steal your Source right away and trick users into logging in and doing activities like it's some sort of GAME. It's not a Game... it's Warfare! And if people continue to use the systems controlled by the opposition, then they should expect a VERY difficult Future!
I support your decision to focus your efforts HERE and I would be happy to consult and help in any way.
getting users from countries with larger population like China and India can be very beneficial in increasing the overall user count. Thought not sure how censorship etc will work out.
The censorship aspect from the blockchain doesnt exist but those countries will block the sites....
From what I understand, the people need to use something to get around the official internet that the government lets through....which I think some are doing.
But yes, getting large countries like that would help...although with roughly 450K, there are still a lot of Americans, Canadians, Mexicans British, French, etc...who can come on here.
And until the herds flock in we will do our best to promote good content and shun those who copy other people's work without any passion or effort before it becomes the norm.
I have seen what leading by example can do, once it hits a critical mass point being a douche does not need to be shunned by anyone actively anymore, it just automatically feels terrible when one gets no attention or love from the ones having fun dancing and hugging each other.
Also, rather happy it's porn, and not the Murdoch vice media empire.
Would much prefer we had this place to ourselves a little while longer, building a strong SBD and steem value with actual people who care, not the media moguls looking to destroy any competition from the get go.
I have not been in the game long but I have been looking for a place that rewards actual work not low-bar cheating tactics.
Thanks for your continued valuable posts taskmaster, I am happy to vest wherever possible with steem. And it's articles like this that give me all the more reason to hustle for a better future.
Wait... ;)
I'm 100% sure that your Steem promotion raises value for all of us
Gotta disagree with this, at least for people who do at least some self-voting. As long as one’s SP at least keeps up with the rate of Steem inflation, why should one’s share of the reward pool drop dramatically?
When you add in another 100,000 people posting, commenting, and upvoting, you dont think the reward pool will be diluted and each person's share is reduced?
Please explain how that can happen...
The vast majority of those users will have tiny amounts of SP.
As a holder of X% of outstanding SP, why wouldn’t one get roughly X% of the reward pool, irregardless of whether there are 10,000 members each holding 1000 SP or 1,000,000 members each holding 10 SP?
Again, I am assuming at least some self-voting.
Because your X% is not going to hold constant. It will be diluted down by the fact that others come on board and are receiving SP along the way. Plus, there could be many who buy STEEM on the open market, convert it to SP which means the SP percentage changes.
And yes they dont have much SP but when a million or so are added up, that is a lot of SP.
I didnt an article how the reward pool is being diluted for the whales. Their percentage went from 88% down to a little over 80% in a year. It will continue to drop.
At the same time, the minnow pool went from 1% to 5% over that same period.
The reason for this is more minnows in there staking claim to the rewards.
A year ago, when there were a lot less people, the whales were getting a much greater share of the reward pool.
One way this wont happen individually is if your powering up rate outpaces the growth rate of active users. If you do this, then your % of the reward pool could actually increase.
Why not?
As I said in my first comment
Sure, if you keep cashing out, your percentage of total SP will drop over time. But since yearly Steem inflation is “only” about 9%, keeping ahead of that by not constantly cashing out is not difficult.
Not all STEEM is in SP.
If, for example, there is 50% of the STEEM available is in SP, and I buy the other 50% on the open market and power it up, I just entitled myself to half the reward pool. Hence, what was 100% based upon the previous SP is now 50%. And you will only maintain that percentage if you vote your full allotment of VP a day...because the entire ecosystem is voting daily at 100%.
Secondly author reward are 75% of the pool. If there are 100 articles a day, an an example, and you write 3, all things being equal, lets say you get 3% of the total authorship pool. Now what happens when 30,000 articles are written a day? You still going to maintain the same 3% take of the author pool.
Sure in the real world, not all articles are created equal. However, you have around 25K active users a day....think about that number being 250K a day....ever at 3 cents, 5 cents, 20 cents, those 225K minnows are going to start sucking a bigger portion of the authorship pool.
If there is 100,000 SP available a day right now with 25K active users, you dont think the average reward will decease 6 months from now if there are 250K active users even if the pool increase to 110000 SP a day? Of course it will.
Sure, the average reward will decrease, but I just don’t see why the rewards for UserX who maintains X% of Steem Power would necessarily fall dramatically.
If UserX stays active posting, commenting, self-voting a bit, and curating, I don’t see how UserX cannot, at a minimum, keep up with inflation. And holders of SP earn Steem interest, currently of about 1.9% per year:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@preparedwombat/how-much-interest-does-your-steem-power-earn-i-finally-figure-it-out
Honestly, if porn is making a token, we're set! Porn is like half the internet. LOL
I appreciate this whole series you've been doing.
there is actually one already!
i dont understand too much about cryptos but dont know why i have faith in your research and analysis....if you are 50% right that will good for all of us...thankyou @taskmaster4450